Scotland

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Another disappointment for Ed Miliband

The final tally from Wales is just in — and it’s a minor disappointment, on a day of many disappointments, for Ed Miliband. There was a time when Labour looked set for a comfortable overall majority in the country. But it isn’t to be. They did gain four seats, yet that leaves them one short of an overall majority. Now, with thirty seats — exactly half of those in the Welsh Assembly — they will have to make do with a tighter, working majority. Far from terrible, but not the red groundswell that Miliband might have hoped for. The problem for Miliband is the overall picture: a precarious sort of

Hamish Macdonell

Salmond’s next stop: testing the Act of Union

Fresh from his astonishing victory in Holyrood, Alex Salmond has declared his next stage is an independence referendum. This is scoffed at: technically he has no powers to do so and a maximum of a third of Scots back independence. But it’s a brave man who’d bet against Alex Salmond right now, and there are many reasons to take seriously the prospect of Scottish independence. Here are some.   1) Scotland is making a mockery out of received wisdom. A few weeks ago, Labour was cruising towards victory. When the Scottish Parliament was designed, the prevailing wisdom suggested that the SNP could never win a majority because the electoral system

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Three points from a remarkable night

This has been a remarkable election night. To my mind, there are three big stories out of the polls. First, the George Osborne masterminded campaign for a new Conservative majority is on track. AV, barring some shock, has been defeated and the Conservative vote has held up remarkably well in the English local elections. Indeed, right now the Tories have actually gained councilors in England. Add to this that the next election, if the coalition lasts to 2013, will be fought on new constituency boundaries that are more favourable to the Tories and things are looking promising for the party.    The coalition looks secure. Even after last night’s drubbing,

Peter Hoskin

Surprise, surprise … the Lib Dems are taking a battering

If you fell asleep expecting heavy losses for the Lib Dems, then you will not have been disappointed upon waking up. At time of writing, around 100 English councils, comprising roughly 2,400 councillors, have declared their results – and the yellow brigade have already lost four of them, along with 270 councillors. There’s some way to go yet, so the picture could alter, but Labour appear to making sweeping gains, while the Tory vote is holding unexpectedly firm. As it stands, the local wing of Cameron’s party has actually gained a council, along with 22 councillors in the process. Stir in the likely result of the AV referendum, and the

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Salmond’s victory

When I stood down as political editor of The Scotsman five years ago, the country looked to be forever Labour – even if they called in Salmond for some Puck-style light relief. Not so now. The SNP seems to have pulled off a minor revolution. Scotland wakes to find Labour MSPs being toppled from former strongholds like Glasgow Shettleston – the city itself is now almost all SNP. The BBC say Alex Salmond is heading for a majority, and in a Holyrood which was designed to make it almost impossible for any party so to do. Salmond is already pledging that his next mission is an independence referendum. The Lib

Alex Massie Alex Massie

An Astonishing Night in Scotland

Scottish elecctions tend to be boring. Little happens. Small earthquake in Scotland, not many dead. Just for once, however, that has not been the case tonight. Labour’s dismal, depressing, you-cannae-do-anything-right campaign met its deserved end. Even so, who predicted the SNP could win FPTP seats in Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire. Who thought they could win a majority of Glasgow city seats? Who foresaw their historic breakthrough in Edinburgh? Andy here’s-how-you-wash-your-hands Kerr and Tom McCabe and many other senior Labourites were toppled. Even Iain Gray only survived by 150 or so votes. Labour spent much of the evening arguing that the story was the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. In some

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

The ghost of David Miliband hovers over Ed’s election results

While the focus remains fixed on the dramas of Coalitionville, it’s worth remembering that today’s votes are meaningful for Ed Miliband too. The Labour leader may not be facing the prospect of resignations, nor even outcry, at their various outcomes. But this is, nonetheless, the first major electoral moment of his leadership. He might well be judged on it. In which case, much will depend on the extent to which Labour advances in England have already been priced into the electoral calculus. If the party’s footsoldiers regard sweeping gains — of perhaps around 1,000 seats — as some sort of default, then attention may turn instead to the turnaround in

Peter Hoskin

Election day is here at last

The usual form, on mornings such as these, is to put up a post setting the scene for the elections ahead – although, really, there’s not much more to add than was said yesterday. Apart from a readers’ survey in the Metro this morning, the only poll to hit after yesterday’s ICM bombshell is a YouGov one for the Sun, and it gives No a 20-point lead. Even given the complications of turnout and geography, it looks as though Team No are heading for a straightforward victory. As if to underline his increased personal involvement in the campaign, and perhaps tie himself that little bit closer to the eventual result,

Wednesday

Alex Massie

The Scotsman Sees Sense

The Scotsman’s endorsement of the SNP and the Scottish Conservatives is so thoroughly, even startlingly, sensible it could almost have been written by me*. [T]here is no other credible candidate for First Minister beyond Mr Salmond. Despite his party’s apparently staunch commitment to statism, we also know the SNP leader is passionate about the role of business and free enterprise in generating jobs and growth for Scotland, within or outwith the Union. In that, he and many of his colleagues – finance secretary John Swinney is one – share the beliefs of the Tories, and we feel there may be common ground between them. SCOTLAND needs a strong First Minister

Jonathan Jones

Your guide to tomorrow’s elections

In light of ICM’s latest poll, Lib Dems might be relieved to hear that tomorrow isn’t all about the AV referendum. But it’s a meagre sort of relief: they’re facing a drubbing in the local elections too. We’ve put together a quick guide to those elections, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, so that CoffeeHousers know what to look out for, and Lib Dems know what to fear. Here it is: England The main question hovering over England’s local elections is: how big will Labour’s gains be? There are around 9,400 seats up for contention, of which the Conservatives currently hold about 5,000; Labour, 1,600; and the Lib

Monday

Hamish Macdonell

Labour are still off course in Scotland

Of all the election results due in on Thursday night, those for the Scottish Parliament may be the most significant. Labour’s Scottish base, which has been the party’s bedrock for almost 50 years, seems to be dissolving. Two more opinion polls yesterday gave details. One, in the Mail on Sunday in Scotland, gave the SNP a ten point lead on the constituency vote and a six point lead on the list vote: this would give the Nationalists 62 seats to Labour’s 51. With the Greens on course to pick up three seats according to the Progressive Opinion poll, Alex Salmond would have enough votes to hit the magic 65 he

Thursday

Alex Massie

Alex Salmond and Donald Trump

Since Donald Trump and the Birthers are everywhere today, I wonder if Alex Salmond winces at the memory of being described by Trump as “an amazing man”? I hope so. For Salmond’s role in the saga of Trump’s plans to build a golf course and, just as importantly, hundreds of “villas” on one of the more spectacular pieces of Aberdeenshire coastline was not one of the SNP ministry’s finer moments. To recap, Aberdeenshire council rejected Trump’s application to build two golf courses, a hotel and his houses on the Menie Estate (pictured above). The Scottish government, as it is wont* to do, called in the application and to precisely no-one’s

Tuesday

Alex Massie

Labour’s Secret Weapon: Stupidity

I don’t think this is a very good idea: Senior staffers in Ed Miliband’s office started briefing Scottish hacks last night that Miliband is now going to take a much more “hands on” approach to the campaign. Miliband has only made one, brief appearance in the campaign so far. But he and Ed Balls are due to be in Scotland this week to push a more strident “anti-independence” message. I suppose it’s possible that this might resurrect Labour’s fortunes but it seems unlikely. And that’s partly because Labour have run such a drab, dreary, depressing campaign. Their principle approach to policy has been to thieve stuff from the SNP and

Monday

Hamish Macdonell

Balls and Miliband to rescue Labour’s Scottish campaign…

Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party’s disastrous campaign in Scotland — with Balls being sent up north to sharpen his party’s teeth. A desperate measure for a desperate situation: Labour has not only blown a 10-15 point lead over the SNP in just a few weeks, but now languishes some 10-13 percentage points behind. A mammoth, humiliating defeat looms. Until now, Labour has liked to portray its campaign for the Holyrood elections as a totally Scottish affair: run in Scotland, organised in Scotland and led by Scottish politicians. Not any more. Senior staffers

Sunday

Hamish Macdonell

Local hero fears complacency as Labour disintegrates

The SNP have this morning been put a whopping 13 points above Labour in the Scottish Parliament race: on 45 percent and 46 percent of the vote in two separate polls. Given that they went into this election campaign somewhere around 35 percent, this represents a huge leap giving them a near-impregnable lead in the Holyrood race. And that’s what’s worrying them in SNP headquarters. Salmond’s strategists, packed into a third-floor office suite behind the Scottish Parliament fear that – in the words of one senior Nationalist – “we have gone too early”. That Labour may now plausibly play the underdog card, and SNP votes may be inclined to stay

Thursday

Alex Massie

In Praise of Alastair Sim

There is, I confess, little pressing need to post this clip from The Happiest Days of Your Life beyond the fact that a) it is always good to see Alastair Sim in action and b) this thought was triggered by this, entirely unrelated, story* in the Scotsman which quotes the head of Universities Scotland – a chap named Alastair Sim. The Happiest Days of Your Life, you will recall, is a splendid caper during which the exigencies of wartime demand a girls’ school be sequestered at a boys’ boarding school. Alastair Sim is the much put-upon headmaster and Margaret Rutherford the splendid headmistress. As always, Sim is the real star

Wednesday

Alex Massie

The Billy Boys are Back in Town

Neil Lennon, the Celtic manager, is not normally an especially sympathetic figure. But so what? Here’s the big news from Scotland today: Three prominent figures associated with Celtic Football Club have been sent potentially lethal home-made letter bombs. Celtic manager Neil Lennon, his QC Paul McBride and the politician Trish Godman, a Celtic supporter, were each sent a package containing improvised explosives with the power to kill or severely wound the recipient. Can we agree that this is getting out of hand? Assassination attempts – which is what this is – open a new front in football’s most depressing rivalry. At this point it’s customary to blame both sides and

Monday

Alex Massie

The Sun Shines on Salmond

Severin Carrell reports that tomorrow’s edition of the Sun will endorse Alex Salmond and the SNP. This should not surprise anyone. I suspect most of the Scottish press will support, albeit with significant qualifications, the Nationalists. The most significant of those qualifications is that this is a Holyrood election, not a Westminster one. Endorsing the SNP does not require anyone to support independence it’s merely making the best of a poor job and recognising that the Nats are a more attractive choice than Labour. The press is prepared to back Salmond but only because independence is not on the immediate or even medium-term agenda. If it were the Nats would

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Lib Dems Cut Their Own Throats

Meanwhile in Scotland, Tavish Scott, leader of the Liberal Democrats at Holyrood is enduring a tough election. Even if the latest polls are too pessimistic about his party’s chances the Lib Dems could still lose half their seats. It’s clear that Tavish blames Nick for this. If Clegg hadn’t done a deal with David Cameron the Scottish Lib Dems might not be in quite so much trouble. There’s something to this even though it’s also attributable to the different dynamics of a Holyrood election that has become, to a great extent, a choice between Alex Salmond and Iain Gray. The Lib Dems are being squeezed and have not been helped

Sunday

Alex Massie

Muckle Eck’s Big Mo

Scotland on Sunday publishes a thumper of a poll today that suggests the SNP is on course to defeat Labour and remain the largest party at Holyrood. In fact, John Curtice’s calculations have the Nats taking 55 seats to Labour’s 49. The Tories, meanwhile, slip to 14 while the Lib Dems suffer a catastrophe and would be left with just six MSPs, just ahead of the Greens with five seats. Should this poll be accurate and should the election – which is still 18 fun-stuffed days away – produce a result of this sort then happy days indeed. By which I mean, of course, not-as-desperate-as-they-might-have-been-days. Kenny Farquharson lays it on