Scotland

A poll to darken Salmond’s day

It looks like Fraser was right to question Vision Critical’s recent Scottish independence poll. That poll surveyed just 180 Scots and found 51 per cent saying they would vote ‘Yes’ to Alex Salmond’s referendum question – ‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’ – and just 39 per cent saying ‘No’. Today, Ipsos MORI has released a somewhat more reliable poll, sampling 1,005 Scots. It finds 50 per cent saying they’d vote ‘No’ and just 37 saying ‘Yes’. So, it looks like even if the referendum asks Salmond’s leading question, the Nationalists are likely to be defeated. And while the SNP may try to claim that 37 per cent

Scotland: A Land Where Conservative Principles Die

For some time now we have been told – by the editor of this magazine among other, less distinguished, commentators – that David Cameron and the Downing Street machine view Scotland as a rum, far-off place about which they know little and which, on the rare occasions they pay attention to it, perplexes them mightily. One would like to think this were not the case but it seems a dispiriting and accurate appraisal. Why – indeed why-oh-why – do Conservatives abandon the principles of Conservatism when discussion turns to Scotland? On Sunday “sources close to the Prime Minister” apparently ruled out any talk of fiscal autonomy, devolution plus, devo max

Alex Massie

Can Home Rule Solve Scotland’s Problems?

This is not a Question To Which the Answer Must Be No. I too saw the headline Now 51% Back Independence and thought, “Well, that’s interesting but implausible“. Then I noticed it was a Sunday Express splash and revised my appraisal to “That’s obviously cobblers”. And so it is, making it mildly foolish for SNP types to boast of a breakthrough on the back of a sample of 200 Scots that’s harldy more dispositive than polling, say, my Facebook pals. Nevertheless, Fraser’s post yesterday won’t quite do either. For instance, the boss writes: My hunch is that Cameron’s intervention will not have helped Salmond. The idea that an independent Scotland

A skewed response to a skewed question

‘A clear majority of people in Scotland now back independence, according to an exclusive poll for the Sunday Express. Using Alex Salmond’s preferred referendum question, the Vision Critical survey found 51 per cent would vote ‘yes’ with 39 per cent against. If such a dramatic result were repeated in the autumn of 2014, the First Minister would have an absolute mandate to negotiate an end to the Union with England.’ So runs the story. CoffeeHousers may have spotted two of the snags: the poll uses Salmond’s laughably loaded question, and seems to have been conducted by a chain of opticians. Further inspection gives a sample size of around 2,000 people,

How Sound is Salmond’s Scottish Pound?

One of the more tiresome aspects of the SNP’s vision for the future of Scotland is its fondness for breezily sweeping away awkward questions as though important elements of Scotland’s prospects as an independent nation were nit-picking details that need not delay anyone from setting out on the road to Independence. It sometimes seems as though weather warnings do not exist or, if it is conceded they do, they should be seen as what they are: biased forecasts designed to prevent Scots from reaching their bright future. There are, you see, few clouds and fewer storms to trouble our bonny and blithe travellers. But some of these warnings are important

Salmond lays the ground for his referendum

So now we have it: the ten words which Alex Salmond hopes will end Scotland’s 300-year-old membership of the United Kingdom. ‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’ The First Minister unveiled his consultation paper on an independence referendum today and, to the surprise of many, actually did what David Cameron has been asking of him. He came out with a short, simple, clear question on independence which he wants to put on the ballot paper. The debate will now rage as to whether this question is fair (is it, for example, too positive? Should it perhaps include something about the United Kingdom?), but this does mark

Alex Massie

Alex Salmond’s Inevitability Strategy

Apparently it is all but compulsory for London-based observers to note that Alex Salmond is “wily”. Those possessing an Anglo-Scots dictionary may add that he’s “sleekit”. By this they really mean he’s not a numpty and this, given the pressures of the times and all of that, is as much of a compliment as any minister can hope to receive. Alex Salmond is an intelligent politician who is often on manoevres. Shockerooni! Be that as it may, it is evident that the First Minister appreciates the importance of image-projection and, accordingly, is doing his utmost to present Scottish independence as a destination that’s as logical as it is inevitable. It

Alex Massie

Salmond: Scotland Free By 2016?

So, the game is afoot. The Scottish government today published its consultation document on an independence referendum to be held in the autumn of 2014. You can read it all here though I should warn you that most of it is entirely unobjectionable. If Mr Salmond is the salesman he hopes he is, the next Scottish parliament – due to be elected in May 2016 – will be the first to govern an independent nation since that auld sang ended in 1707. I notice, however, that the favoured question proffered by the SNP has changed. As recently as last year it proposed asking for a mandate to open negotiations. This

Salmond’s dangerous strategy

Cartoonists like to portray Alex Salmond as a modern-day Braveheart preparing to charge the English enemy. But, in truth, Salmond’s strategy is far more subtle — and dangerous — than that.   The SNP leader’s piece in The Guardian today — a preview of the Hugo Young lecture he’s delivering tonight — downplays what a dramatic step independence would be. At times the article reads like an argument for ‘devo max’, not independence. He bemoans that devolution ‘left Scotland with fewer powers than the German Länder, most American states, parts of Spain or, within these islands, the Isle of Man’.   Salmond also wants to suggest that not that much

The John Wilkes Society is Reborn

John Wilkes was radical and wrong; his latter-day equivalents are merely stupid and wrong. To buttress this notion, I submit the cases* of Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. We are talking, as you know, about the Scottish Question upon which these Daily Mail columnists have recently seen fit to pontificate. As we shall see, if these are the people teaching Scotland to Middle England then the plain yeomen of England should demand better from their newspaper. It is one thing to peddle nonsense – everyone must do what they can to earn a living – quite another to sell an argument that contradicts itself. Yet hark at this from Mr

Scottish independence by numbers

It’s far from the first poll on Scottish independence in recent years, or even in recent days, but YouGov’s effort for Channel4 this evening contains some noteworthy findings nonetheless. What is does is replicate the conditions that — for the reasons that Peter Kellner explains in a very useful blog post here — Alex Salmond would like in 2014. Which means two questions, one after the other. First, status quo or ‘devo-max’? Second, status quo or full independence? And the results? By YouGov’s count, 58 per cent of people are in favour of ‘devo-max’ for the first question, with 42 per cent against. And, for the second question, 39 per

A joke too far?

Tom Harris lost his job as Labour’s ‘Twitter tsar’ today after uploading this Salmond-themed Downfall video onto YouTube. A pity it’s not even one of the funnier ones: And here is, erm, Ed Miliband responding to the news:

From the archives: Saving the Union

With Scottish independence very much the issue of the week, we thought you might enjoy this Spectator leader from 1979, arguing for a ‘No’ vote in that year’s referendum on Scottish devolution: To preserve the Union, 24 February 1979 ‘So, Sir, you laugh at schemes of political improvement?’ ‘Why, Sir, most schemes of political improvement are very laughable things.’ The Scotland Act, which comes before the judgement of the Scottish people on Thursday, is certainly laughable. Would that it were no more than that. If the Scottish Assembly is instituted it will be the most important constitutional change the United Kingdom has known since the Irish Free State came into

Alex Massie

The Tories & A Third Way: Real Home Rule for Scotland

How brave are the Scottish Tories? Brave enough to appreciate that they might have to risk the Union to save it? Bold enough to recognise that much greater powers for Holyrood are in their interest just as much as such additional powers are something the SNP craves? Because how can there be a right-of-centre revival while Holyrood is charged with spending but is not expected (or allowed) to do the dirty work of raising its own revenue? And, mark this, Scottish politics needs a centre-right party that is credible and capable of offering an alternative to the smug consensus that otherwise too often dominates Scottish politics. Holyrood is unbalanced at

Transcript: Gove on sacking teachers

This morning, the Education Secretary went on the Today programme to explain his plans to make it easier to sack teachers. Here’s the full transcript: James Naughtie: From the start of the next school year in England, head teachers will find it easier to remove teachers that are considered to be under-performers.  The Education Secretary, Michael Gove, thinks the process is too cumbersome so it is being streamlined. The National Union of Teachers, as we heard earlier, says it could become a bullies’ charter.  Well Mr Gove is with us. Good morning. Michael Gove: Good morning. JN: Bullies? MG: I don’t believe so. I think that actually if you have

Osborne sparks the unionists’ fightback

Edinburgh It became clear last night why George Osborne was put in charge of the Coalition Government’s fightback against Alex Salmond and separatism: he is the only one who has the ability to really score points off the Nats. The Chancellor’s intervention on currency and bank notes – suggesting that an independent Scotland might not be able to keep the pound and that, if it did, it might be banned from producing Scottish bank notes – hit the SNP hard. Osborne’s remarks shook one of those comfortable certainties which the SNP has been peddling for so long – that Scotland would simply keep sterling after independence and everything would progress

Would Spain stop Scotland from joining the EU?

Alex Salmond’s case for independence relies on Scotland joining the European Union. If an independent Scotland was a member of the EU, then Scotland would be part of the single market and free movement of labour across the border could continue (an independent Scotland would also have to join the euro, but that’s something Salmond is less keen to talk about). But, as one Whitehall source points out to me, it is far from certain that Scotland would be able to join the EU.   The Spanish are currently blocking Kosovo’s accession to the EU. Why? Because the Spanish, who don’t even recognise Kosovo as a state, fear the implications

Alex Massie

Peter Oborne Returns to Form

After last week’s mishap, Peter Oborne returns to form with a column best considered as a mash-note to the Radio Four theme. Because Peter is, essentially, a romantic he allows himself to be carried away by the fond vigour of his desire to see Great Britain preserved for future generations to enjoy. That should not detract from the central thrust of his column: Alex Salmond, that most brilliant and attractive of modern British politicians, is capable of superbly articulating the sense of nobility, romance, mission and fierce patriotism felt by many SNP supporters. Nationalism and the cry for liberty can be an intoxicating cocktail, even at the start of the

Salmond’s dangerous corporatism exposed

How would an independent Scotland have fared during the crash? Given that the liabilities for RBS alone represent 2,500 per cent of Scotland’s economic output, it’s a difficult question for Alex Salmond. He replies that the banks in Scotland would have been better-regulated by wise, old him, so the problems would not have arisen. But Faisal Islam at Channel Four has unearthed a letter that rather explodes this theory, written from the First Minister to Fred the Shred egging him on with the calamitous acquisition of ABN Amro. This, as CoffeeHousers will know, is the acquisition which was so hubristic that it went on to sink the whole banking group.