Scotland

What’s going on in Scotland

If the election in England is the political equivalent of trench warfare with Labour and the Tories inching forwards and then back, what’s going on in Scotland is a rout with the SNP driving all before it. What is remarkable is how the Nationalists are even in with a chance of winning seats such as Edinburgh South West that voted No by a more than twenty point margin. At the moment, everything their opponents throw at it seems to bounce off the SNP. The so-called Sturgeon memo, which claimed that she had told the French Ambassador that—contrary to all her public protestations—she would prefer Cameron to Miliband as Prime Minister,

Campaign kick-off: 27 days to go

It’s the Conservatives’ turn to try and bounce back today. After the ‘dead cat’ thrown onto Ed Miliband’s kitchen table, it looks as if Tories parties will be hoping to return to policy — not slashing non-doms — and move away from personal attacks. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. Polls everywhere, but not a lead in sight No fewer than five opinion polls were released yesterday, three of which showed Labour leads while two had the Conservatives ahead. The Guardian went as far to deem Thursday as ‘The day the polls turned’, but there is still no clear frontrunner at this

Barometer | 9 April 2015

The Scottish way of death Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP would block a rise in the state pension age on the grounds that it would be unfair to Scots, who don’t live as long as the English. — The idea that the Scots die early was fuelled by a study by the Glasgow Centre for Population Health in 2006, which found male life expectancy in the Calton area of Glasgow to be 54: less than in many developing countries. — The figure, derived from statistics collected between 1998 and 2002, was exaggerated by the presence of a large number of hostels in the Calton taking in drug addicts from other

Fraser Nelson

Sturgeon hints that the SNP would never back a Labour budget

“Is it sensible to spend your way out of debt?” ran the opening question in the last night’s Scottish leaders debate – marking it out, straight away, as something very different from politics-as-usual. It was set in Aberdeen, hence the greater concentration of common sense. The six-way debate was feisty and refreshing, and of a calibre higher than the seven-way UK leaders’ debate. Scotland has joined Denmark in producing the best political drama, except this is real. Nicola Sturgeon won last week’s UK debate, I’d give Tuesday’s to Tory leader Ruth Davidson. I’m not sure anyone won, or lost, last night – but unlike last week’s melee, we did learn

Campaign kick-off: 28 days to go

Trident is set to be the big issue today — but the fight isn’t just about policy. Several newspapers have splashed on the news that the Tories are attempting to embarrass Labour over whether they would allow the SNP to box them into scrapping our nuclear deterrent. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main stories. 1. Fallon vs. Miliband The Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has launched an attack on Ed ‘backstabber’ Miliband in the Times today — claiming that he would trade renewing Trident for SNP support to prop up his government. ‘Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become

Podcast: what if Ed wins, the madness of Scottish politics and Catholic wars

Ed Miliband could still win the general election, but what would happen next? On the latest View from 22 podcast, The Telegraph’s Dan Hodges discusses this week’s Spectator cover feature on what to expect from a Miliband premiership with George Eaton of the New Statesman. Would Miliband manage to take his lofty ideas about reshaping capitalism into No.10? Or would he be more pragmatic in power? Like his mentor Gordon Brown, could Miliband’s indecisiveness turn out to be a fatal flaw? James Forsyth and Alex Massie also discuss the current madness of Scottish politics. As we saw during the two Scottish leaders’ debates, it appears there is nothing that can dent the SNP’s popularity — even a leaked memo about Nicola Sturgeon’s desire to keep David Cameron in No.10 has been

James Forsyth

A Scottish revolution is coming, and everyone’s losing their heads

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/edcouldstillwin/media.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and James Forsyth discuss the current state of Scottish politics” startat=866] Listen [/audioplayer]Normally, if a candidate whose party came fourth in a constituency last time tells you they’re going to win, you put it down to election derangement syndrome. But in post-referendum Scotland the normal political rules don’t apply. When Joanna Cherry, the SNP candidate for Edinburgh South West, says she’s headed for Westminster — despite the SNP picking up just 12 per cent of the vote here in 2010 — she is probably right. Walking round with Cherry as her team cheerfully canvasses in the early evening sunshine, you can’t help but be struck by

Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP continue to defy the usual laws of politics

It’s nice to be noticed. I cannot recall the Scottish portion of a UK general election ever exciting this much interest from folk unfortunate enough to live south of the Tweed. I don’t blame southrons for wondering just what in god’s name is happening up here, however. These are uncharted waters for all of us. And yet, despite that, it is a little less revolutionary than it seems at first. Consider these numbers: 39, 33, 29, 32. That’s the share of the constituency vote won by Labour in the four elections to the Scottish parliament. And then there are these numbers: 29, 27, 33 and 45. That’s the share won

Campaign kick-off: 29 days to go

Finally, we have a policy to debate. Ed Miliband has set the agenda for the campaign today with a pledge that Labour would scrap the ‘non-dom’ tax status. After weeks of personal attacks, Miliband has shaken things up a little — but is the announcement already falling apart? To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main stories. 1. No more non-doms In a speech at Warwick University today, Ed Miliband will say ‘there are now 116,000 non-doms, costing hundreds of millions of pounds to our country, it can no longer be justified.’ In short, having non-dom tax status is a way for very wealthy people

My night with Nicola Sturgeon

When I watch Nicola Sturgeon exercising her newfound charm and confidence, I experience a pang of intimate regret. Some 15 years ago — when she was a new MSP and the SNP’s shadow education minister — we both appeared on a late-night Scottish television show in Aberdeen, in which guests were invited to defend controversial propositions in front of a live audience of students. My task was to argue that poorer countries should not have their debts forgiven (then the theme of the Millennium ‘Jubilee’ movement, now a key argument about Greece) as a result of misplaced rich-world guilt; needless to say I took a pasting. The future first minister

James Forsyth

The Scottish TV debates offer Labour one final chance to hold back the SNP advance

Tonight’s Scottish leaders’ debate in Edinburgh is as important to the general election campaign as last week’s debate featuring Cameron, Miliband et al in Manchester. Both this debate and the second Scottish one tomorrow offer Labour a final opportunity to reverse the SNP advance. The polls indicate that the SNP are on course to take 28 Scottish seats off Labour in May. This would make it the largest Scottish party at Westminster. It would also make it impossible for Ed Miliband to win a majority. At the moment, nothing seems capable of halting the Nationalists’ momentum. The dramatic fall in the oil price, which has upset many of the calculations in the independence white paper,

Jim Murphy fails to mention Labour on his campaign leaflets

Earlier this month the Labour party were accused of not including pictures of Ed Miliband on campaign literature out of fear that the mere image of their party leader could scare off voters. Now Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy appears to have gone one step further and simply not mentioned Labour at all. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, claims that campaign leaflets for Murphy fail to mention the Labour party once: I get @JimForScotland leaving Miliband off his leaflet but why has he left off @scottishlabour? Not a single mention. pic.twitter.com/FenbKEf774 — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) March 29, 2015 With recent polling by Lord Ashcroft predicting that Murphy will hold on to his East Renfrewshire seat

Gordon Brown laments the ‘constitutional revolution’ of his own making

Given that Gordon Brown has hardly been seen in the Commons since losing power five years ago, it was a bit rich of him to say goodbye now. But the SNP uprising has started — it looks set to claim his own seat of Kirkcaldy — and so he’s off. In his final speech to the House of Commons today, he lamented the gradual breaking apart of the UK which was, of course, started by his own party. After indulging in niceties towards Parliament as an institution, the Speaker and his constituents, Brown promised to devote his efforts away from Westminster to ‘the idea of Britain’ and attacked the Conservatives’ plans to

We need to remember that lynx aren’t simply the big pussycats that they appear to be

As our Barometer column reminded us this week, a campaign is underway  to reintroduce the Eurasian lynx – which became extinct in the UK around 1,300 years ago – to the British countryside. But is bringing back lynx to the wilds of the UK really a good idea? Well, for starters there are many farmers and livestock owners who certainly won’t be very pleased to see them. Lynx UK – who are behind the plans – have claimed that they are willing to subsidise farmers for any loss of livestock that the lynx are responsible for. But that probably won’t put farmers’ minds at rest – especially hill farmers, whose animals would

Another poll suggests Labour wipeout in Scotland

Will the SNP eviscerate Scottish Labour? A new poll from the Guardian/ICM today suggests once again that the SNP is on course to do very well in the upcoming general election — and is currently on course to take 29 seats from Labour. As with Lord Ashcroft’s polling earlier this month, the numbers suggest that the swing from Labour to the SNP shows no signs of ebbing away. The SNP is currently on 43 per cent, the same as the last ICM poll in December, while Labour are 16 points behind on 27 per cent. The Scottish Tories are up one point to 14 per cent while the Lib Dems are languishing

Alex Massie

Could the Tories do a deal with the SNP? (Yes they could)

We have been here before, you know. Seven years ago Alex Salmond looked forward to the prospect of a hung parliament and spied an opportunity to ‘make Westminster dance to a Scottish jig’. If Scotland returned at least 20 SNP MPs – members, as the then First Minister indelicately put it, ‘ready, willing, and able to defend our parliament and our people’ – then Scotland’s interests might yet hold the balance of power in London. Not, he stressed, as part of any formal coalition but on a case-by-case and vote-by-vote basis. That didn’t happen, of course. The SNP won only six seats in 2010. Still, a victory delayed is not the

Scottish nationalism is hypersensitive and insular. So is the newspaper it has spawned

Last year Russia Today launched a poster campaign with a fanciful strapline: ‘This is what happens when there is no second opinion’. The extraordinary implication is that the conflict could have been avoided, if only we had listened to Putin. This is such an obvious fallacy that it’s hardly worth dwelling on. But RT (as it now likes to be known, as if people don’t know what the ‘R’ stands for) is producing lightly disguised state propaganda. The viewers know it and so do the mercenaries that make it. In contrast, Scotland’s new pro-independence daily newspaper – ‘The National’– is written with earnest conviction. Its contributors are devout believers, and

Danny Alexander’s diary: Trying to put an undercover reporter at ease, and the unicorn poop question

It’s dangerous, in my line of work, to promise you’ll be anywhere by 8 p.m. I made this mistake recently, saying I’d turn up to a dinner after a Budget discussion — a ‘quad’ meeting, where I sit with the Prime Minister, George Osborne and Nick Clegg. We’ve been doing this for five years, so have come to know each other pretty well. Not that we all agree; on the night in question, Nick was angry about something (I won’t say what) and our meeting ran on. I headed back with him to Dover House, a magnificent building where I was based during my tenure as Scottish Secretary. A great

Hugo Rifkind

The real threat to Britain (and it’s not the SNP)

What a load of mendacious balls everybody talks about Scotland. It’s like a disease. It’s like, you know how they say Ebola probably started in some festering bat cave in Guinea? Well, the referendum campaign was that cave. We had secret oilfields and fantasies about the NHS and endless guff about austerity being done for evil Tory fun, and the VOW the VOW and, dear God, the relief when it ended. Only it didn’t end. Instead it spread. And it set the tone. People talk now, for example, about an SNP/Labour coalition. As though this would make sense, when they must know it wouldn’t at all. As though Ed Miliband