Scotland

Unusually for a modern Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson seems to enjoy meeting voters. When I joined her on the campaign trail, she had been posing with a giant eagle in Kirkcaldy. Then she jumped on to a Harley Davidson in Stirling. Such props, she says, are a ‘springboard’ to talk about Scottish Conservatism — which, thanks to her, is no longer an oxymoron. Davidson’s sparkling performances in the various debates stood in welcome contrast to David Cameron’s. Not once has she mentioned the ‘long-term economic plan’, or the other clichés issued from Conservative HQ. Her message is simple: thanks to a Conservative-led government, she says, Britain now has less pensioner

It’s hard not to feel a bit sorry for Nick Clegg. He’s a decent man who took a tough decision to put his party into coalition with the Conservatives, and lost half of his support as a result. Tomorrow, his party will be hammered. His great miscalculation was imagining that in England the Lib Dems would emerge with a list of achievements voters would applaud – as they did in the 2003 Holyrood elections when, after four years of coalition, the Lib Dems overtook the Scottish Conservatives to become the third-largest party. On the radio the other day Clegg vainly paraded his boast list, his own version of Kelly Clarkson’s Because

Michael Gove was out and about with fifty odd Tory activists dressed as Nicola Sturgeon in Westminster today, when he made an extraordinarily bold prediction about next week’s election results. The top Tory claimed that his party would end up with more seats in Scotland than the Labour Party. He also suggested that Sturgeon was more dangerous than Russell Brand, ‘because she votes’. While Miliband’s party might well be set for an absolute hammering north of the border next Thursday, they do currently have 41 Scottish seats whereas the Tories have a single constituency. Mr S later asked the Chief Whip to back up his claim. ‘It is a reality based prediction, yes,’ Gove

Just when Scottish Labour didn’t think it could get any worse, a new poll suggests they are now facing total wipe out next Thursday. According to Ipsos MORI/STV News, the SNP is now up to 54 per cent of the vote share — up two points since their last poll in January. Punching these numbers into Electoral Calculus suggests the Nats will win all 59 seats and wipe out the other parties. Another prediction website, ScotlandVotes, suggests that this vote share would leave one Liberal Democrat MP after polling day. Unlike Lord Ashcroft’s recent polls north of the border, this survey was conducted across the whole of Scotland — not just

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft’s latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It’s worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the

Expectations just keep increasing for the SNP. Today’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times puts the nationalists on an eye-popping 48 percent of the vote in Scotland. Labour activists and candidates report better that on the fabled doorsteps the response they’re getting is much better than that recorded by the opinion pollsters. Doubtless, in some constituencies, this is true. But it seems unlikely to be enough. The ship will not go down with all hands but there will still, it seems, be few survivors. This remains a strange election. Ordinarily I’d say the straw-clutchers are hopelessly mistaken. The numbers do not lie. They are worth more than anecdotal evidence and gut-checking

For the first time in this campaign, foreign affairs are not only being discussed but also dominating today’s agenda. Ed Miliband is set to criticise the coalition’s record on foreign policy, putting at least some of the blame for the Libyan migrant crisis on David Cameron. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The Libya blame game At Chatham House this morning, Ed Miliband will deliver a speech on Britain’s international role and responsibilities. Before Miliband has even taken to the podium, a row has broken out over whether he is accusing the government of abandoning

Nicola Sturgeon met my Auntie Patsy over the weekend, then was kind enough to tweet a picture of their encounter (below). Seeing her sandwiched between the two people most likely to break up the union was odd, but so was discovering that many members of my extended family are now voting SNP. Aunt Patsy is, I’m afraid, a typical example: like 1 in 50 Scots she has joined the SNP in the last seven months. She wasn’t really into politics until recently, but has caught the bug (there is a lot of it about in Scotland). .@FraserNelson just met your lovely (@theSNP voting) auntie in Inverurie. She says hello pic.twitter.com/gsfDUPlMoG —