Reform

Have Reform blown it?

18 min listen

Loyal listeners will remember that just three months ago we released a podcast asking: Is 2025 Farage’s year? The answer was ‘yes’, provided Reform UK can keep their five MPs in line… As predicted – and despite all the talk of professionalisation – Nigel Farage’s latest political outfit is following the pattern of the parties that came before: infighting. On Friday night, the Reform party stripped Rupert Lowe of the whip after referring him to the police. Lowe stands accused of workplace bullying and threatening behaviour towards party chair Zia Yusuf. These are allegations that he strongly denies, calling the whole affair a ‘witch hunt’. How long has there been tension between

Coffee House Shots Live with Robert Jenrick and Jonathan Ashworth

70 min listen

The Spectator’s Katy Balls, Michael Gove and Kate Andrews were joined by special guests Robert Jenrick and Jonathan Ashworth for a live podcast, recorded at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. The main topic of discussion was, of course, Donald Trump, whose inauguration has ushered in a new world disorder. His ‘shock and awe’ foreign policy has sent Europe scrambling as it tries to work out who will be responsible for ensuring its security in the future. We have seen a move away from the idealism that has defined foreign policy in the last decade and towards ‘realism’, with countries committing to boots on the ground and greater defence spending. Are

Inside Nigel’s gang, my day as a ‘missing person’ & how to save James Bond

38 min listen

This week: Nigel’s gang – Reform’s plan for power.Look at any opinion survey or poll, and it’s clear that Reform is hard to dismiss, write Katy Balls and James Heale. Yet surprisingly little is known about the main players behind the scenes who make up Nigel Farage’s new gang. There are ‘the lifers’ – Dan Jukes and ‘Posh George’ Cottrell. Then there are the Tory defectors, trained by Richard Murphy, a valued CCHQ veteran, who is described as a ‘secret weapon’. The most curious new additions are the Gen Zers, who include Tucker Carlson’s nephew, Charles Carlson, and Jack Anderton, known as ‘the Matrix’. Katy and James joined the podcast

Will there be a Tory/Reform pact?

19 min listen

While both Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch are quick to talk down speculation of a pact between the Tories and Reform, listeners may be surprised to hear that around Westminster such conversations are already taking place. With every new poll, Conservative MPs grow a little more anxious that by the time they go to the polls, they will have little claim to being the main opposition – and so some sort of agreement starts to make sense. That agreement could be anything from a non-aggression pact to bringing the two warring parties of the right under one leader. How likely is it? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Gawain

Reform overtake Tories on Spectator poll tracker

The new year is off to a bad start for Kemi Badenoch’s Tories. The latest update to The Spectator data hub’s poll tracker shows that – on average – Reform have just overtaken the Conservatives to become the second-placed party in British politics. As Steerpike reported this morning, YouGov’s first Westminster voting intention poll since the July election revealed that, while support for Starmer’s army has dropped nine points since polling day, Nigel Farage’s Reform has seen support rise by ten points. Combine that with the Tories dropping two points, and The Spectator poll tracker – which looks at the average of all political polling – puts Reform in second

Does Kemi Badenoch have a plan?

We are nearing the 50th anniversary, next month, of Margaret Thatcher becoming leader of the Conservative party. Only one other woman has ever become leader while the party was in opposition, and that is Kemi Badenoch. Mrs Badenoch is well aware of the strategy her legendary predecessor pursued between becoming leader of the opposition in 1975 and prime minister in 1979, and is sensibly emulating it: a willingness to include rivals in her shadow administration, and to take her time setting out policies (there is, after all, unlikely to be an election before the spring of 2028, by when anything could happen); but to precede the announcement of specific policies

Is 2025 Farage’s year?

19 min listen

Happy New Year! And it could prove to be a very happy new year for Nigel Farage and the Reform Party. They provided some of the stand-out political drama of 2024, with Lee Anderson’s defection and Farage’s return, before winning five seats at the general election (as well as a hefty chunk of the popular vote). They finished the year strong with a meeting with Elon Musk, where we understand that a possible donation was discussed. Farage also gave a memorable speech at The Spectator awards, warning that a ‘political revolution’ is coming. With the local elections coming up in 2025, could this be the year that Reform and Farage crystallise into

Letters: why I’m voting Reform

Back to 1976? Sir: Your leading article perfectly reflects the public’s attitude to the manifestos of the major parties (‘Challenging democracy’, 29 June). No one has a plan that can remotely be seen as likely to work. Each party promises goodies they have no idea how to pay for; the only question is who will bankrupt us first. As ever, it is easy to distribute largesse, but no one has a clue how to remove it. We are heading towards a rerun of 1976 when the Labour government had to go cap in hand to the IMF. Those old enough can remember inflation of 25 per cent and a Bank

Has Reform peaked too soon?

14 min listen

The election campaign was going well for Nigel Farage’s Reform… until it wasn’t. A series of controversies have been difficult for the party to shake off. Will the distractions cost them votes and MPs? How will it affect their momentum – and who’s to blame? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Heale.

How to lose voters

During the 1983 general election, I campaigned every single day with great zeal and avidity. I knocked on quite literally thousands of doors enquiring of people if we, the Labour party, could count on their support on 9 June. I would start at 9 o’clock and finish 12 hours later, taking a break at about 7 p.m. because interrupting Coronation Street was considered a vote loser. The closest the party has to a geographical base are the poorer parts of our eastern seaboard I did all this with my hair spiked up in jagged tufts held in place by gallons of hairspray, and with a little bit of eyeliner and maybe

Lionel Shriver

Tory voters want to punish their party – and themselves

For progressive onlookers abroad, the Labour landslide now projected next month will seem a cheerful counterweight to the EU parliamentary elections’ lurch rightwards and will represent a huge, refreshing popular shift in Britain to the left. Yet according to at least one recent poll, this perception would be statistically mistaken. Add the Conservative and Reform support together, and on the ground the British left and right are neck and neck. But never mind the numbers. The notion that an historically extraordinary Labour majority would betoken a renewed British enthusiasm for socialism is off the beam. Where is the emotion in this election? What few passions July’s contest stirs fester almost

Does Nigel Farage have the cure for Britain?

10 min listen

Nigel Farage has unveiled Reform UK’s manifesto. Except, it’s not a manifesto, because he says the word is synonymous in voters’ minds with ‘lies’. It promises a freeze on non-essential immigration, a patriotic curriculum, leaving the European Court on Human Rights, and cutting taxes by £88 billion.  Is this contract more of a wish list? How much damage can Nigel Farage do to the Conservatives? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Heale. 

Why are the Tories playing Farage’s game?

How should Rishi Sunak respond to the unwelcome insertion of Nigel Farage into the election campaign? The Prime Minister called the election for 4 July in part because he hoped it would wrong-foot Reform, but that hasn’t worked, with Farage electrifying the challenger party and near-electrocuting many Tory MPs who were already terrified of losing their seats.  The response from the centre has been to move even further into Reform’s territory. Home Secretary James Cleverly was out and about this morning talking about immigration, and dropping hints that the Conservatives could make leaving the European Convention on Human Rights a manifesto commitment. Asked about it, Cleverly said: ‘The point that

Will Reform overtake the Tories?

12 min listen

A new YouGov poll has Reform just four points behind the Conservatives. Richard Tice’s party is on 15 per cent, and Rishi Sunak’s party is on 19 per cent. What is driving the Tory decline? Max Jeffery speaks to Katy Balls and to James Johnson of JL Partners.

Will the Red Wall revolt split the right?

48 min listen

On the podcast this week: is Rishi ready for a Red Wall rebellion?  Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform is an indication of the final collapse of the Tories’ 2019 electoral coalition and the new split in the right, writes Katy Balls in her cover story. For the first time in many years the Tories are polling below 25 per cent. Reform is at 15 per cent. The hope in Reform now is that Anderson attracts so much publicity from the right and the left that he will bring the party name recognition and electoral cut-through. Leader of Reform UK Richard Tice joins Katy on the podcast to discuss. (02:23) Then:

Lee Anderson defects: what next?

13 min listen

Lee Anderson has defected from the Tory party to Reform. In a press conference this morning, Anderson said ‘I want my country back’ and said that his parents had urged him to change party allegiance. How much of a headache is Anderson’s defection for Rishi Sunak, and will more Tory MPs quit the party? Max Jeffery speaks to Fraser Nelson and Katy Balls.

Is this the end of borrow and spend?

Since the spring statement last week, Rishi Sunak has been dealing with complaints from all sides: the right have been arguing he should have been bolder with tax cuts, the left insists more support is needed to help people with the rising costs.  With the Office for Budget Responsibility projecting the biggest fall in living standards since records began, rumours of U-turns and further announcements started bubbling over the weekend. The media, the opposition, and even some Tory MPs have been asking Treasury representatives over and over again: is that all? In a keynote address hosted by the Institute of Economic Affairs this morning, chief secretary to the Treasury Simon

Can the EU save Italy?

There’s been a lot of hype around the green light given by the European Commission yesterday to Italy’s recovery plan. But let’s break it down: the final headline numbers are €68.9 billion in EU grants by the year 2026 and €123 billion in loans. If you take the grant component, and divide it over the six-year duration, you arrive at an average of 0.6-0.7 per cent of Italy’s 2019 GDP each year. It is front-loaded, and it’s by no means a modest sum. What’s harder to accept however, is folding in the loan component to arrive at some giant fake headline number. The whole point of this exercise is not

When will there be another right-wing insurgency?

Almost the whole of the British political class failed to understand that the rise of Ukip after the 2010 general election was not some fringe irrelevance but was in fact likely to have major consequences. Academics Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin were two of a select band of political futurologists who were onto the Ukip advance early. By the time their insightful book Revolt on the Right was published, Ukip had already forced an EU referendum pledge out of David Cameron and the book was therefore read by many dumbfounded Westminster insiders as if it were a crammer for a module that had unaccountably not been covered in the standard

The greatest threat to Boris’s legacy

The government is starting to have an opinion poll problem, but it has nothing to do with any great threat from Keir Starmer or the Labour party. While the Tory ratings have gone from high to low 40s and Boris Johnson is not as extraordinarily popular as he was in January last year before the advent of the first dry cough of coronavirus, that’s not the issue of concern at all. On the contrary, the problem is that the Prime Minister may be getting addicted to favourable ratings and increasingly unwilling to put them in jeopardy by taking difficult or unpopular decisions. The latest evidence for this view came in