Ons

The sun shines on retail sales

When the sun shineth…go shopping. That’s what we did in our droves during April, boosting retail sales by 4 per cent compared to the same month last year. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), anecdotal evidence from retailers suggests that good weather contributed to growth in sales, which increased by 2.3 per cent in the three months to April compared to a 1.4 per cent decline in the first quarter. And there’s the fact that Easter also fell in April this year, prompting sales of furniture, golf equipment and motorbike accessories. Analysts were cheered by the data, which was beyond their expectations, but said the real test lies ahead. Michael Baxter, economics commentator

Snatching state pensions back from the rich would end in disaster

While Theresa May makes her mind up over the triple lock on state pensions the OECD has come up with an altogether more radical suggestion: that the state pension be withdrawn entirely from the richest five to 10 per cent of the population, in order that more money be available for the poor. I am not sure that the purpose of the OECD ought to be to try to micromanage the fiscal policies of member states, but let’s treat it seriously nonetheless. Snatching the pensions of the better-off would be disastrous policy which, by destroying the disincentive to save, would achieve nothing other than to boost the numbers of poor

UK inflation jumps to 2.3 per cent raising prospect of interest rate rise

The economists were right. For months now, they have been warning that the Brexit vote and the subsequent fall in the pound would drive up prices. Today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics confirm that consumer prices are rising at their fastest rate for more than three years. According to the ONS, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) jumped to 2.3 per cent in February, up from 1.8 per cent in January and above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. Food prices recorded their first annual increase for more than two-and-a-half years, reaching 0.3 per cent higher in February than a year earlier. With the prospect of an interest rate rise now

House prices now more than seven times income

There are many things that beggar belief. The enduring popularity of Mrs Brown’s Boys for one. A continued appetite for the songs of James Blunt. And the appointment of George Osborne as editor of the London Evening Standard. That last one is particularly hard to fathom. But then so is some other news out this morning: a typical home now costs more than seven times income. And I’m not talking about your luxury pads or property in the most desirable enclaves of the capital. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the typical property now costs 7.6 times average annual earnings of employees in England and Wales. This is

Britain’s manufacturing boom is now underway

Another week, and more good economic news which has not been awarded the attention it deserves. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released economic growth figures for December, which show a much stronger-than-expected economy. Construction output in December was up 1.8 per cent on November, and 0.6 per cent up on December 2015. Manufacturing output in December was up 2.1 per cent on November and 4.0 per cent up on December 2015. There is encouragement in the export figures, too – which show just how strong a shot in the arm has been provided by the lower pound. In December British firms exported £31.4 billion worth of goods and

The Brexit bounce continues – ten forecasters up their predictions for 2016 growth

The Brexit bounce continues. HM Treasury has today released forecasts of the economists it follows, as it does every month. Last time, there was a flurry of downgrades and forecasts of an immediate recession. Now, these forecasts are being torn up by everyone, including by the FT (although you can bet the FT won’t report on the upgrades as eagerly as it did the downgrades). The average new forecast suggests GDP will grow by 1.8 per cent this year, far better than the 1.5 per cent forecast last month. This back to where the consensus was before the Brexit vote. The OECD, which had previously predicted “immediate” uncertainty after a

Britain’s trade deficit will be a useful Brexit bargaining chip

Britain’s trade deficit – the difference between what we import and export – widened in the run-up to Brexit. Figures out today show that we imported £5.1bn more goods than we exported to the rest of the world. That gap widened by nearly £1bn between May and June, according to the ONS, in a picture which the Guardian have said is pretty ‘ugly’. But there is a flip side. Firstly, these figures don’t reflect anything about the referendum – they were compiled in the build-up to the June vote, so they tell us little about the impact of Brexit. Secondly, it’s worth mentioning that whilst the deficit has, indeed, got bigger,

Today’s migration figures will be much-needed grist for the Brexit campaign

Ever since David Cameron declared he wanted to get net migration down to below 100,000 the migration figures have caused him a headache. Today’s are particularly sensitive given that they’re out just a day before the EU referendum purdah period starts. Confirming net migration more than three times Cameron’s supposed maximum, and half of the rise being EU nationals, the data will help the Brexiteers argue that we need to leave the EU to restore border control. The potency of this argument has resulted in a subtle shift in the Brexit campaigning strategy, which appears to have placed immigration (not the NHS or the economy) at the centre of their argument. The ONS release shows that net

Britain is selling less to Europe but the EU is still hugely important

Britain’s trade deficit – the gap between what the UK imports and exports – is now at its biggest since the financial crash in 2008. The latest figures out today show that the difference between the two is now £13.3bn for the first four months of 2016. That’s a jump from £12.2bn at the end of 2015. So what do the figures actually mean? City analysts have described the trade deficit as ‘truly horrible’. The British Chambers of Commerce said the gap between imports and exports was ‘unacceptably large’. It’s not only those from the business world having their say on the latest figures though. As ever, these statistics are

International Women’s Day isn’t the time to be pushing faulty pay gap statistics

International Women’s Day is a time to celebrate the vast achievements of women worldwide, while acknowledging the real struggles and oppression millions of women and girls continue to face, including violence, inequality under the law and limited access to education. It is not a time to push faulty pay gap statistics. Yet that is exactly what happened yesterday. Ahead of International Women’s Day, Robert Half – a specialised recruitment agency – calculated that women in the UK will earn roughly £300,000 less than their male counterparts throughout their career, putting their estimated pay gap figure between men and women at 24%. Robert Half’s estimation is wildly inflated compared to the

Muhammad really is the single most popular boys’ name in England and Wales

Why doesn’t the Office of National Statistics want us to know that Mohammed is the most popular boys’ name in England and Wales?  Yesterday, it put out its annual survey of the top 10 baby’s names.  In 2014, it reported, the most popular boys’ names were Oliver, Jack and Harry. This contrasts somewhat with a similar survey by the website BabyCentre last December which claimed that the most popular boys’ name was now Mohammed. When that survey was reported in the Daily Mail it was jumped upon by various left-wing ‘fact-checker’ websites who denounced the survey as an abuse of statistics. Not only were the figures based only on respondents

Why can’t we have an inflation index which includes house prices?

The cost of living, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported on Tuesday, has fallen by 0.1 per cent over the past year. Or at least it has if you rent your home and have no intention ever of owning your own. If you do aspire to buy a home, on the other hand, you might conclude that the government’s preferred inflation index – the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) — is a fraud on the public which ignores the single biggest cost you are likely to face in life: buying a property. It includes no element of house prices whatsoever. It includes rents, but in such a way that social

ONS admits UK economic recovery is stronger than it thought

The ONS has today revised upwards its growth for most of 2013, to show a recovery far stronger than it admitted at the time. This fits a trend: in economics, good luck tends to come in waves. And the tools economists have to work out what’s happening are so crude (and often useless) that it takes years to work out what really happened. Only in 2011, for example, was it clear that Gordon Brown had incubated the worst economic overheating since the war – hence the crash. But by the time this was clear, everyone blamed bankers for the crash – when, in fact, it was just reckless economic management.

Good news for the government: Unemployment falls again

More positive economic news this morning — the unemployment rate has fallen. In the last three months, unemployment has taken a surprising drop to 7.4 per cent, compared to 7.6 per cent for the three months before. As the chart below shows, the unemployment rate is now lower than at any time since the general election, and the lowest since April 2009: The number of people claiming Jobseeekers’ Allowance is also down by 36,700 while average pay also rose by a slender 0.8 per cent compared to the previous year (still below the rate of inflation). Despite this, the figures are good news for the government. The Employment Minister Esther

Portrait of the week | 2 May 2013

Home In the run-up to local elections, Kenneth Clarke, the Minister without Portfolio, described the UK Independence Party candidates as ‘clowns’. RAF Waddington, Lincolnshire, assumed control of ten Reaper drone aircraft in use over Afghanistan. Irfan Naseer, 31, from Birmingham, the ringleader of a plot to use eight suicide bombers in attacks that could have killed thousands, was sentenced to five life sentences; of ten others charged, four men who admitted an offence of travelling overseas for terrorism training were sentenced to three years, and six men to between four and 18 years. Six men from the West Midlands pleaded guilty to planning to bomb an English Defence League rally