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It is the decimal point which really gets me. If we have a ‘no deal’ Brexit, according to Treasury forecasters, the economy will be 7.6 per cent lower in 15 years’ time than it would be if we didn’t leave the EU. What, not 7.7 per cent? It is an age-old trick: express your guesswork with a decimal point or two on the end and hope that it sounds a bit more convincing, as if a bit more science has gone into it. But sorry, the Treasury should not be fooling anyone this time. It is politically interesting that Philip Hammond told the Today programme this morning that he thinks

We’re familiar with the warnings about the cost of Brexit. The ‘People’s Vote’ campaign released an estimate yesterday suggesting that Theresa May’s deal will leave the UK £100bn worse off a year. Tomorrow, the Treasury will unveil its forecasts of the economic impact of Brexit. But what about the price of staying put in the EU? Whatever those clamouring for a ‘People’s Vote’ might claim, no Brexit does have a cost. Firstly, the price in terms of political capital will be significant. What does going back on the referendum result say to the 17.4million voters who voted Leave? What about the damage done to trust in our institutions and our politicians? Or to

The publication by the Treasury of its forecasts of the economic impact of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, versus no-deal and staying in the EU, has been keenly awaited. But it turns out that what we will read, probably on Wednesday, will be almost irrelevant. Because what the Treasury has modelled is not the deal actually struck on Sunday by Theresa May, but her Chequers plan. And, as you will be keenly aware, the rest of the EU has rejected her Chequers combination of the UK staying in the single market for goods and the dual-tariff customs territory the Facilitated Customs Arrangement. In other words, we will be asked by the

Although Theresa May looks set to avoid a confidence vote for the time being, tonight’s Finance Bill votes could serve to undermine her authority further. Government whips have spent the day frantically trying to persuade swing MPs to vote with the government against a series of amendments. Those efforts have been rather fruitless in some respects – with the government already forced to concede on the Jo Johnson backed amendment calling for the Treasury to publish a comparison of the impact of the Brexit deal with the impact of Britain’s existing terms with the EU. Adding to May’s woes is the fact the DUP have abstained on most of the votes.

Collapsing retailers. A looming far-left government threatening nationalisation. And perhaps most significantly of all, our potentially chaotic rupture with our largest, closest and most significant trade partner. It doesn’t seem to matter what you throw at it, the British economy continues to be surprisingly resilient. Figures out today showed it expanded at 0.6 per cent in the third quarter, its fastest rate for a couple of years, and a rate which should keep annual growth at a more than respectable 2 per cent plus. That will come with all the usual caveats of course. It was helped by all the money we spent in the pub watching our boys do

The Budget appeared to have landed well. Tory MPs at PMQs on Wednesday were in a notably better mood than normal; a fight with Labour over a tax cut cheered them all up. But this evening some of the sheen has come off the Budget with the resignation of the Sports Minister Tracey Crouch. Crouch has gone over the fact that the stake limit for fixed odds betting terminals is not coming in as quickly as expected. Crouch’s resignation is embarrassing for the government as the main reason that this ban, which would take the maximum stake down from £100 to £2, isn’t coming in quicker is the amount of

When Theresa May announced at this year’s Tory conference that she would put an end to austerity, it’s safe to say that her Chancellor hardly looked thrilled as he clapped from the front row of the hall. Philip Hammond is regarded as a fiscal hawk and rather averse to loosening the purse strings. At today’s Budget, Hammond tried to get on board with No 10’s ending austerity message. But in doing so, he also attempted to put some clear blue water between ‘end austerity’ Conservatives and anti-austerity Labour. Firstly, Hammond defined what he sees as ‘ending austerity’. The Chancellor said that ending austerity meant an above-inflation increase in departmental spending. The

The news that Chuka Umunna is getting paid £451 an hour to chair a new centrist think tank will go down very well indeed with some of his Labour colleagues. It’s not so much that those MPs are just delighted for Umunna, as it is that they can use his £65,000 salary to undermine the chances of the new centrist party that this think tank might be working for. The Labour leadership is naturally worried about the idea of a breakaway centrist party, as it could rob Jeremy Corbyn of his chance to become Prime Minister at the next general election. But the Corbynite attack line against such a party

Free university for students. Free shares in your company. And now plenty of free time, with one day less in the office or the factory every week. The shadow chancellor John McDonnell hasn’t quite gotten around to promising free Krispy Kreme doughnuts in every shopping mall, abolishing fees for Sky Sports, or handing out Uber vouchers for everyone. But heck, there are still at least three years to go until the next election. It may only be a matter of time. McDonnell’s latest wheeze for buying more votes is a half-promise to reduce the.standard working week from five days to four. Apparently, with the rise of artificial intelligence, and the onwards