Military

Saturday

David Blackburn

Death on the road to Brega

NATO has accidently bombed a rebel convoy on the road to Brega. Casualties are understood to have been heavy and, judging by footage, the rebels at the scene are pretty exercised: lots of angry tears, outraged rhetoric and shooting in the air.  An emotional  response is understandable in the aftermath of tragedy, especially in the fraternal fever of rebellion. However, the response does reveal something about the rebels’ military sense and capability: firing guns in the air without thought to what may be above is symptomatic of the martial indiscipline hampering their efforts. NATO is conducting an inquiry into this affair, but it seems that the flight turned on the

Friday

Daniel Korski

The pressing need to oust Gaddafi

The op-ed by David Cameron and his Qatari counterpart Hamed Bin Jassem in the run-up to the London conference received very little play in the UK media. That’s a shame because it set out, anew, the reasons for the Libyan intervention, which are already at risk of being lost in the debate about ways, means and exits. ‘Yesterday, reports reached us of fresh attacks on the people of Misurata. Snipers are gunning people down in the street. Food, water and electricity supplies have been cut off. Ghaddafi and his regime are continuing to carry out acts of appalling brutality and cruelty, in clear and flagrant breach of the UN Resolution.

David Blackburn

How to encourage the others

Lord Malloch Brown has inverted Voltaire’s maxim on the execution of Admiral Byng: treat Moussa Koussa well to encourage the others. Most of this morning’s papers expect further defections from the Gaddafi regime ‘within days’. These defections are expected to come from Gaddafi’s civil administration; the Colonel’s military and security arms remain fiercely loyal. The Foreign Office refuses to give a ‘running commentary’ on events, but the confidence of its officials is ill-disguised. It is increasingly apparent that Tripoli is spiralling into desperation and that the fetid regime is fracturing. The Guardian reports that an aide of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Mohammad Ismail, has been in London. Details are scarce but

Thursday

Daniel Korski

How to help the rebels

The lack of weaponry is not the only problem plaguing the Libyan rebel forces. Their disordered retreat reveals that they need training, better organisation and in-theatre liaison and support. From what I saw, the Transitional Council is very well organised politically, but there is a general lack of military cohesion. Youthful volunteers and self-armed families are fighting alongside ex-loyalists. (There also seems to be a significant Muslim Brotherhood/Islamist presence, though the Council has detained a number of Al Qaeda associates.) Communications are poor because the rebels rely on mobile phones, which rarely work on the front. NATO has now taken over the air and naval mission, but it will struggle

David Blackburn

The first rat abandons ship?

Moussa Koussa, one of Gaddafi’s closest henchmen, has given himself up in Britain. He left Tripoli supposedly on a diplomatic mission, but arrived in Britain declaring that he “no longer wanted to serve the regime”. This development suggests that the regime is crumbling and pundits opine that the balance has now tipped against Colonel Gaddafi. It has also emerged that President Obama has authorised covert support to be given to the hotch-potch rebellion, which may yet prove decisive. Gaddafi will now have to make do without Koussa’s skill and clout, which may pose the Colonel a problem if he needs diplomacy to save his neck. However, Gaddafi’s blitzkrieg is still

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Rebel setbacks create an almighty headache for NATO

The Auk and the Desert Fox ride again. As in 1941-2, the military position along on Libya’s northern coastal road is extremely fluid. After the celebrated rebel gains over the weekend, Gaddafi has counter-attacked without remorse. Skirmishes escalated yesterday and now the rebels are in full retreat (£) from the strategically vital oil town of Ras Lanuf, running from Gaddafi’s superior onslaught. It’s apparent that the rebels need heavy arms to secure their gains, let alone beat Gaddafi. As Pete noted yesterday, the west is (rightly) wary of such a move and there’s nothing to suggest that Arab states are any less reluctant. Besides, it is unclear if the UN

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Another Libyan question

Far from quiet on Libya’s shifting battlefront. The latest reports are that the rebel advance has stalled, and is now moving backwards in the face of Gaddafi’s overwhelming firepower. Yet as disheartening as this development may be, it is hardly unexpected: America’s General Ham all but described it as an inevitability only a couple of days ago. And so the rebels’ representatives have now made an equally inevitable demand of the politicians congregating in London: arm us, and we can make progress once again. In which case, there’s another question for the pile: to arm, or not to arm? And it is not clear-cut, either way. While the West appears

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: Libyan transit

The road from Cairo to Salloum, Egypt’s Wild West town on the border with Libya, stretches out into the desert until the patched-up, grey and black cement blurs into the yellow dunes. Throughout the journey, well-kept electricity pylons line the road, while the occasional shepherd looks out from a desolate shed-like house. Otherwise there is nothing to see.  This is the road to war, or away from it. I expected to see more people fleeing the conflict; but at the last roadside café, life seems to be following its normal routine. Bedouin waiters mingle quietly with smugglers, relief workers and the occasional journalist. In the background, President Obama’s speech is

Peter Hoskin

Obama sketches out the limits to American involvement in Libya

There was one aspect of Barack Obama’s Big Speech on Libya last night that was particularly curious: for a President who is trying to downplay American involvement in this conflict, he sure went in for good bit of self-aggrandisement. The amount of references to his and his government’s “leadership” — as in, “At my direction, America led an effort with our allies at the United Nations Security Council to pass an historic Resolution” — was really quite striking, at least to these ears. I suppose it’s all about mollifying those voices who argue that the US Pres hasn’t done enough, quickly enough. But it’s hardly going to endear him to

Monday

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: will Egypt help in Libya?

Nothing would help the international campaign against Colonel Gaddafi as much as the Egyptian military — and therefore Egypt — swinging in behind the UN-authorised effort. It would be one of the few things that would make the Libyan dictator worry and could push fence-sitting loyalists towards the rebel cause. Materially, it could also be important; with the Libyan resistance reluctant to receive Nato help, Egypt could be very helpful as a conduit for weapons, intelligence and even on-the-ground military support. A post-combat mission would also be greatly aided by Egyptian involvement or leadership. Unfortunately, after a few days in Cairo, I think it is more likely that Colonel Gaddafi

Peter Hoskin

The rebels press on in Libya, but questions remain

As Nato takes full military responsibility in Libya, the rebels surge onwards in the direction of Tripoli. According to one of the group’s spokesmen, Gaddafi’s hometown of Sirte — some 280 miles east of the capital — fell to their attacks last night; although there are reports, still, of explosions there this morning. In any case, the tidal shift that took hold at the beginning of the weekend is continuing. The rebels are now seizing ground, rather than ceding it. All this is, if not vindication for the Western leaders who pressed for a no-fly zone, then at least encouragement. It suggests that the one-two combination of Nato air support

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: curfew

Driving through post-revolution Cairo at night is eerie. The normally busy streets are deserted, most of the city’s  squares and roads are blocked by military checkpoints, and dark clad figures slip in and out of the shadows. Breaking the curfew may result in a six month sentence, or worse. Come dawn, however, the city springs to life, looking like it has done for millennia — busy, noisy, lively. This tale of two cities — one cowered, quiet and run by the military, and another that is lively, chaotic and civilian — is perhaps a tale not only of Cairo, but of Egypt in the midst of an ongoing transition. For

Daniel Korski

The government should acknowledge Israeli restraint

With NATO planes circling above Libya, Saudi troops quashing protests in Bahrain, and troops killing civilians in Syria and Yemen, there has been little attention paid to Israel. But Israel has recently been the victim of a series of violent attacks. More than 30 people were injured in a bombing in Jerusalem, and Islamic Jihad’s military wing, the Al-Quds Brigade, has fired mortars and rockets into Israel for days on end. The attacks suggest that Hamas is, once again, struggling to rein in other terrorist groups like Islamic Jihad. Some IDF commanders fear a descent into chaos in Gaza. In the face of the onslaught, however, the Israeli government has

Saturday

Daniel Korski

The Libyan resistance is on the front foot

The fight between Colonel Gaddafi’s forces and the resistance to his rule will clearly take some time, but the rebels have had a good 24 hours.  In Brega, Gaddafi’s forces deserted in large numbers, handing 10 vehicles over to rebels. A loyalist brigadier was killed and in Ajdabiya government forces withdrew overnight, while rebels also made progress in Zintan.   The RAF made a key a contribution: its aggressive supported the rebels holding out in Misrata, taking out a number of APCs and a loyalist tank.  Best of all, however, is the news that a Brazilian plastic surgeon has told Gulf News how he took fat out of Colonel Gaddafi’s

Friday

Peter Hoskin

From the archive: the consequences of Nato bombing Kosovo

There are two reasons to return to the Kosovo Conflict for this week’s hit from the archives. First, of course, the surface parallels with Libya: Nato involvement, bombing raids, all that. Second, that yesterday was the 12th anniversary of Nato’s first operation in Kosovo. Here’s Bruce Anderson’s take from the time: Milosevic has Kosovo, Nato has no idea, Bruce Anderson, The Spectator, 3 April 1999 There is a precedent for Kosovan conflict: Suez. Then, as now, our indignation was inflamed by misleading historical analogies; Milosevic is not Hitler, any more than Nasser was. Then, as now, we were afflicted by geopolitical tunnel vision, and lost all contact with the wider

Daniel Korski

Libya has shown the government the virtue of a multilateral approach

The Libya intervention has already turned the international kaleidoscope, showing new and remarkable patterns. It has seen China acquiesce to a no-fly zone, and the West in alliance with the Arab League. Nobody thought that was likely 6 months ago. It has also changed reputations. Nicolas Sarkozy may win re-election on the back of the war. William Hague, who had a bad revolution, is having a good war.   The government has become more multilateralist, as opposed to the kind of bilateralism it espoused when it took office. Nearly a year ago, it sent a clear message to the FCO — bilateral ties would matter, multilateral ties less so. Now,

Peter Hoskin

Now the questions are Nato’s to answer

Now, at least, we know: Nato will be taking charge of the no-fly zone that has been erected around Libya. And we might even welcome the news. As soon as the Americans made it clear that this was not their conflict to command, a new leadership arrangement was always going to be required — and Nato were the obvious choice. The only real barriers to their assumption of power have been French enthusiasm and Turkish reluctance, but they now appear to have been reconciled. In so far as this has clarified the next steps in Libya, it is a good thing. But confusion remains, and in wholesale quantities. It’s not

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Libya: next steps

The Libya intervention goes on, with as many question marks hanging over the operation as airplanes in the sky. What is the aim? Who will run it? Can the United States, Britain and France keep allies such as Turkey on board? Behind the scenes, officials are said to be looking at various options, including if and how to support the rebels. But the hand-wringing is now even audible across St James Park. Realistically, the UK should in the first instance work towards establishing a stalemate between loyalists and rebels. From such a stalemate a political process can then begin, which, though it may take many years and continue during the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Libya operation will take months not weeks

With the Budget over, attention is beginning to shift back to the situation in Libya. A government source tells me that they expect the mission in Libya now to run for months not weeks. The challenge is that while the allies can stop Gaddafi’s forces from advancing from the sky, they can’t make the poorly organised and poorly armed rebels advance. There’s also an arms embargo in place on the whole of Libya and while some small arms are moving across the border with Egypt into the rebel-held east, the Gaddafi regime still remains far-better armed. This conflict could be over very quickly if those inside the regime turn against

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Scouring the Budget small print

This morning’s newspapers have a feast of analysis on the Budget. I’ve covered 15 of them, and what journalists normally do is spend the day trawling the small print of the Budget document hunting for stories. But this time, the stories seem to have migrated to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s accompanying report, packed with new analyses and metrics — even disaster scenarios — which those with an interest in UK economics will find useful. The OBR document is now released with the Red Book, and speaks with the authority of government economists who (unlike the rest of us) have had weeks to chew over Osborne’s claims. The OBR must