Marine le pen

Disaster versus chaos for France’s economy? My village neighbours don’t seem bothered

The lovely Dordogne village of St Pompon that is my holiday hide-away has only 350 voters, but is a perfect predictor of presidential elections. It voted heavily for Jacques Chirac against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, marginally for Nicolas Sarkozy against Ségolène Royale in 2007, and 59-41 for François Hollande against Sarkozy in 2012. So I’d love to tell you who’s going to win this time on the strength of the chatter at the Good Friday market. But the only national event the locals seemed interested in was a mountain bike championship just up the road. In gentle spring sunshine, the presidential contest seemed so far away that no one

Jonathan Miller

Faute de mieux

Who will win the French presidential election? Does it even matter? Nothing in the programmes or personalities of the leading contenders gives confidence that any of them can fix the Fifth Republic and the corruption, dysfunction and stagnation that it has inflicted on the French. At Marie-Trinité’s café in the southern French village where I am an elected councillor, the mood before the voting is one of weary resignation and disgust. Yet this election does matter, and it can make a difference, not only because all of the probable outcomes threaten to make things even worse, but because almost all of them have the potential to be particularly painful for

François Fillon is the anti-Islamist candidate – and an Islamist target

The news on Tuesday that French security services have prevented another attack by Islamic extremists should come as no surprise given the proximity of the election. Nor should the fact that according to police sources the intended target was François Fillon. When police raided the apartments in Marseille of the two suspects, they reportedly discovered a submachine gun, two handguns, three kilograms of TATP explosives, which was used in the 2015 suicide attacks in Paris, and a newspaper photograph of Fillon. The Islamists loathe the conservative candidate, more than they do Marine Le Pen, despite the fact that she leads the National Front, a long-time foe of conservative Islam. When

Could France’s Muslims win it for Jean-Luc Mélenchon?

It was the 34th annual convention of France’s Muslims at the weekend in le Bourget, just north of Paris, and the main topic of conversation was the upcoming presidential election. Five years ago, when François Hollande beat Nicolas Sarkozy to become president, the Socialist candidate benefited from 86 per cent of the Muslim vote. That won’t happen in 2017. Jérôme Fourquet, director of IFOP, the international polling organisation, said recently that in the wake of the 2012 election ‘the left committed the error of believing that they had acquired this [Muslim] electorate permanently’. And yet in Benoît Hamon, who hopes to succeed Hollande as the next president from the Socialist Party, Islam has a

Emmanuel Macron is France’s Ed Miliband, not its Justin Trudeau

President François Hollande was unable to fix France during his presidency, now expiring. Can he fix the French election by choosing his successor?  Unable to run for a second term because of the problem French voters loathe him, Mr Hollande has told friends his final mission is to prevent the election of Marine Le Pen, candidate of the populist National Front.  A consummate political plotter, Mr Hollande has adroitly — and not even especially covertly — anointed as his successor his former aide and economy minister, the supposedly brilliant and boyish, if slightly odd, Emmanuel Macron. Macron is a former Rothschild banker, a graduate of the elite École Nationale d’Administration,

How Marion Le Pen is undermining her aunt’s campaign

Marine Le Pen sees plots everywhere. In her view the media, the Socialists, the judiciary and even the European Union have been conniving in recent months to enfeeble her presidential campaign. As she said during last week’s televised debate, ‘I’m politically persecuted’. But the plot with the potential to cause the greatest damage to the National Front leader is likely to come from within. It will be led by her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, and her growing number of supporters within the National Front who believe Marine Le Pen’s detoxification of the party she inherited from her father in 2011 has softened their core beliefs to an unacceptable degree. Jean-Marie Le Pen

Meet the London bankers voting for Le Pen

With weeks to go until the French presidential election, the London branch of Marine Le Pen’s Front National are working hard. In the unlikely setting of a room above a pub near Farringdon Station, Le Pen’s supporters meet regularly to discuss their candidate’s chances. Max Bégon-Lours, the organiser of these meetings and vice-chair of the group, is optimistic. For him, the appeal of the far-right candidate is obvious – and he’s far from alone. Some might say that backing a candidate like Le Pen is ironic for a French voter like Bégon-Lours; after all, he is a man who has benefited directly from the system of globalisation that Le Pen likes to deride. As with many French people in

France’s chaotic Presidential debate was a dismal disappointment

The presidential campaign is nothing if not a test of endurance for the French public although there were moments yesterday evening when the televised debate felt more like a punishment. For four hours, the eleven candidates talked, or to be more precise, shouted, interrupted and ranted at one another. It was, in the words of Le Figaro, a ‘cacophony’ and one that ‘rapidly turned the debate into a confusion’. It was the first time in a presidential campaign that all the candidates, not just the principal ones, have debated and it will probably be the last. A second full-scale debate is scheduled for April 20th but Jean-Luc Mélenchon has already withdrawn given

Is Emmanuel Macron part of an establishment plot?

In 2002, I befriended an old Frenchman called Andre. He had been a resistant, one of the first, and when the SAS parachuted into the wooded, rolling countryside of the Morvan in central France, he was there to greet them. For three months in the summer of 1944, the SAS and the Resistance waged a guerrilla war. It was a brutal campaign. Andre took me to the church tower from where the Germans had hurled the village priest, and he showed me the forest clearing where his Resistance group had shot a 15-year-old boy for betraying one of their number to the Nazis. Andre also told me about his acquaintanceship with François

European politics is following in Israeli footsteps

For Israelis, Europe’s political landscape is looking increasingly familiar. Whereas Israel was once seen as something of a political backwater, nowadays it’s European politicians who seem to be gazing across to Israel for inspiration. Those on the right are leading the way: from Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders to Austria’s Norbert Hofer, this group of populist politicians are tending to see in Israel’s brand of nationalism a model for their own. In January, Le Pen spoke of a ‘patriotic spring‘ of nationalism in Europe; she went on to say that ‘we are experiencing the return of nation-states’. And who better to provide inspiration for that than Israel? Le Pen – despite her father saying that

The friendly alliance

On 29 March 2019 the Queen should have a state dinner and invite the European Union’s 27 heads of state and its five presidents. The evening’s purpose would be to toast the new alliance between the United Kingdom and the EU: one based on free trade, security cooperation and shared democratic values. This celebration of the new alliance will be especially welcome after two years of negotiations which are bound to be fraught and, at times, ugly. The complexity and the sums of money involved pretty much guarantee this. There is, though, a particular onus on Britain to keep things civil. We have chosen to end this failed relationship, so

Macron and Le Pen both fail to dazzle in first French Presidential debate

It was the burkini that brought Monday night’s debate to life between the five main presidential candidates for next month’s French election. For the first hour of the televised debate there had been much posturing and postulating but no sharp exchanges. That changed when Marine Le Pen accused Emmanuel Macron of turning a blind eye to the burkini, the Islamic swimwear that last summer caused such controversy in France. Macron rejected the charge, telling Le Pen in a forceful exchange she was a dangerous provocateur. The centrist candidate, who claims to be ‘neither left nor right’, then went on the counter-attack, accusing the National Front leader of sowing divisions within

Marine Le Pen’s biggest political obstacle is her name

I had an illuminating argument with a Socialist friend at the weekend. It began when I expressed my surprise that greater Paris has just passed a law compelling construction workers to speak only French. The ‘Moliere clause’ in the ‘Small Business Act’ requires all firms engaged in publicly-funded building projects to talk French. The intention is to stop foreign workers, particularly those from eastern Europe, taking the jobs of French builders and undercutting local companies. I suggested to my friend that the bill, which is already in force in Normandy, Hauts-de-France and Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes. is discriminatory. Not at all, retorted my friend, it’s common sense. I see. In which case, I

Why do so many French youngsters support Marine Le Pen?

I’m very sceptical of the idea that the younger generation are more conservative than their elders, and that this makes conservatism somehow cool, which it isn’t. There have been times where the kids are more reactionary than their parents but generally only as a result of religious movements – and Britain is as atheistic as can be. Young Brits are very liberal and cosmopolitan, even compared to their peers in other European countries. In polls they express low levels of pride in their country and an unwillingness to fight in any theoretical war. The Brexit vote, and the big gap between old and young, showed just how liberal the young are.

Marine Le Pen will gain the most if Francois Fillon is forced to stand down

Marine Le Pen must be struggling to contain her glee at the implosion of the centre-right Républicains party. An extraordinary 24 hours began on Sunday when François Fillon assembled his supporters in the torrential Parisian rain to reaffirm his intention to stand as their candidate in next month’s election. The former Prime Minister then appeared on TV yesterday evening to confess to his errors but reiterate that he is best placed in his party to defeat Le Pen’s National Front. Lurking in the background, however, as Fillon spoke live on television, was Alain Juppé, who many expected to present himself on Monday as the  Républicains’ Plan B. Instead, the 72-year-old declared he would not accede to

François Fillon needs forgiveness from French conservatives

‘One cannot govern France,’ declared François Fillon last November, ‘if one is not irreproachable.’ A little over three months later, however, and the centre-right candidate for next month’s French presidential candidate has had a change of heart. The 62-year-old has today announced that he will be placed under formal investigation over allegations that during a period of several years he fictitiously employed three members of his family on lucrative salaries. François Fillon and his Welsh wife Penelope have been summoned by magistrates to answer the charges on 15 March, two days before the registration deadline for presidential candidates. Fillon says it is clearly a politically-motivated decision. ‘From the start, I have not been treated like

James Forsyth

Francois Fillon limps on despite ‘fake job’ probe

Francois Fillon had previously said he would drop out of the French Presidential race if corruption allegations against him resulted in him being placed under formal investigation. But the candidate of the Republican party has just held a press conference to declare that yes, he is being placed under formal investigation over payments to his family but no, he is not dropping out of the race. He has accused the judiciary and the press of attempting a ‘political assassination’. Fillon’s decision to stay in the race increases the likelihood of a Macron/ Le Pen run off round. The latest polls show Le Pen in the lead in the first with

L’anti-Trump

If you believe the hype, Emmanuel Macron is l’anti-Trump. He is what the inter-national centre-left, reeling from the shocks of Brexit and the US election and fearful of a victory for Marine Le Pen in France, is crying out for: a politician who can win again. He is only 39 years old, handsome and radical sounding. He’s not a career politico; he used to work as a banker for the Rothschilds (every-body loves them). He wears sharp suits and he’s written a book called Révolution. Better still, he has a buzzing movement behind him: his ‘En Marche!’ (Let’s go!) campaign has excited trendy progressives. He is not bogged down with

James Forsyth

The new third Way

Forget left and right — the new divide in politics is between nationalists and globalists. Donald Trump’s team believe that he won because he was the America First candidate, defying the old rules of politics. His nationalist rhetoric on everything from trade to global security enabled him to flip traditionally Democratic, blue-collar states and so to defeat that personification of the post-war global order, Hillary Clinton. The presidential election in France is being fought on these lines, too. Marine Le Pen is the nationalist candidate, a hybrid of the hard right and the far left. She talks of quitting the European single currency and of bringing immigration down to 10,000

Emmanuel Macron’s idyllic vision of France is a myth

As Emmanuel Macron stood on the steps of Downing Street on Tuesday urging Britain’s ‘banks, talents, researchers, academics’ to move across the Channel after Brexit, security services in France were dismantling yet another Islamic terror cell preparing to launch a terrorist attack. That makes three this month, a clear indication that the Islamists are itching to carry out a major attack in the run-up to April’s presidential election. Tuesday’s police raid targeted addresses in Clermont, Marseille and the Paris area. ‘The suspects had a plot that was sufficiently advanced for the police to decide to arrest them’, said a police spokesman. According to the French media, police had been monitoring the suspects’ text