Liberal democrats

Tuesday

11 May 2010

The obstacles to a Lib-Lab deal

The main development of this morning has been Labour MPs throwing up obstacles to a Lib Lab deal. At the moment there are four main problems. First, David Blunkett and others arguing that Labour would be better off going into opposition and—this is implicit—letting the Tories and the Lib Dems make the cuts. One union fixer told me Labour couldn’t go into a coalition with a party committed to cuts to benefits and tax credits. Second, Jon Cruddas, a champion of party democracy, has demanded that the parliamentary party, the NEC and the unions be consulted on the terms of any deal. Third, there are lots of Labour MPs letting

Peter Hoskin

Whatever happens, Clegg has sullied his credibility with the Tories

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves: some sort of deal between the Lib Dems and the Tories is still a distinct possibility, even if negotiations have been rocked by the events of yesterday. But whether it goes through or not, Clegg has seriously dented his credibility in Tory circles. Backbenchers who were warming to the idea of a formal Lib-Con coalition a few days ago – if only to scupper Labour’s hopes – are now dead set against it. The very notion of Clegg as Home Secretary is becoming a collective anathema. The question now is whether – failing a Lib-Lab coalition – the Tory leadership is more inclined towards

David Blackburn

The Tory right strikes back

Sam Coates reports that the Tory right want Cameron to renege on the commitment to a referendum on AV. You can see why they want to do this but it’s ill-advised. The Lib Dems have destroyed their credibility by indulging blatant self-interest and the Tories should avoid making a similar mistake. The need for unity is absolute. It’s time to put-up and shut-up in the national interest. Right now, that means reaching an accommodation, either in coalition or in a minority government with Lib Dem backing or abstention. If that requires a referendum on voting reform then so be it. Besides, facilitating a referendum is not to endorse reform. The

David Blackburn

Game on for a Lib-Con Coalition

Gary Gibbon reports: ‘Last night’s two-hour meeting of the Lib Dem MPs (with a sprinkling of peers) seems to have swung the party decisively behind a Lib-Con coalition deal. An announcement is widely expected now today.’ It’s preferable to the alternative and as George Osborne made clear this morning the Tories can do nothing without Lib Dem support. There’s a suggestion that Clegg may have forced Cameron’s hand into further concessions with his sudden wooing of Labour, in which case he’s a very clever and brave shyster. I’ll believe it when it happens though. PS: A note of caution, as if one were needed. Clegg can’t put a time on

David Blackburn

This isn’t English

‘The Tories are stuffed,’ a resigned Shadow Cabinet minister tells Gary Gibbon. Endorsing any such view is premature but, with Lib Dem elders counselling Clegg to join Labour, the most likely outcome is a coalition of the losers, albeit nice progressive ones. Ah, the irony of the New Politics – plus ca change and all that. Politics has descended into a grotesque spectacle of blackmail, and bungled devolution is to blame. As James reported last night, talks with the Tories ran aground on sands that are the territory of Holyrood and Scottish Liberals presented every obstacle possible. Plaid MPs prostitute themselves at a £100 million a piece and Northern Ireland’s

Peter Hoskin

The Lib Dem big hitters pushing Clegg towards Labour

Today’s papers have the lowdown on the events of the past few days, and one thing is becoming increasingly clear: a Lib-Con deal faces not just the opposition of the Lib Dem base, but also some of the party’s most influential figures. In a Times account of a Lib Dem meeting yesterday, it’s revealed that Sir Menzies Cambell “urged his successor not to bind the party into a irrevocable deal with the Tories.” Meanwhile, the Telegraph reports that “Vince Cable played a significant role in resisting an agreement [with the Tories].” And Paddy Ashdown was across the airwaves this morning, explaining how a Lib-Lab coalition could provide “stability” and “legitimacy,”

Alex Massie

The Blundering Parties

The biggest blunderer today was, I think, Nick Clegg but one can make a case arguing that each of the parties played their hand badly on Monday. Oh, sure, in one sense Labour must be enjoying this: Tories in a fury, Liberals suddenly interested again and, who knows, perhaps there’s a faint glimmer of hope that something may yet arrive to rescue the party and keep it in office. But Labour’s good mood reflects a short-term tactical stroke, not a strategic victory. Gordon might have wrong-footed the Tories today and damaged prospects for a Tory-Liberal arrangement but that’s it. Labour’s overall position had not, I suspect, improved greatly not least

Monday

10 May 2010

Alex Massie

A Liberal Red Herring

James reports – and since it’s James doing the reporting there’s no reason to doubt him – that some of the strongest opposition to doing a deal with the Tories came from Scottish Lib Dem MPs. Apparently the poor lambs think they could be wiped out if they were tarred with the Tory brush. I assume that they are fretting about the Holyrood elections next year, not the next Westminster election (though of course, all the jockeying and manoevering must be judged in the light of its potential impact on that contest). Because let’s have a look at their Scottish seats: Gordon: LD 36, SNP 22, Labour 20 Aberdeenshire West:

James Forsyth

The Scottish angle

I am told that one of the Lib Dems groups most opposed to doing a deal with the Tories was its Scottish MPs. Their view was that Scotland had voted massively against the Tories and that any party seen as their representatives in Scotland would be massacred. This has set off chatter in Tory circles. There was already irritation that the party has a majority in England and Wales but was still having to compromise on issues that have been devolved to Scotland. But to not be able to make a coalition deal because of your unpopularity north of the border is to add insult to injury.

James Forsyth

The Tories work to seize the moral high ground

Well, well today just keeps getting more and more extraordinary. The Tories have responded to the Lib Dems beginning formal negotiations with Labour by offering the Lib Dems a referendum on AV in exchange for a full coalition with Lib Dems in the Cabinet. The Tories stress that this is their final offer to the Lib Dems. Having spoken to several members of the shadow Cabinet, it appears that the offer is designed to allow the Tory party to seize the moral high ground. They believe that if the Lib Dems were to join with Labour to ram through a change in the voting system—Labour are offering the Lib Dems

Peter Hoskin

How can the Lib Dems deal against the backdrop of a Labour leadership contest?

And so it begins. With Brown’s statment earlier, the Labour leadership contenders are already creeping out of of the Downing Street woodwork. Paul Waugh tweets that David Miliband will announce his candidacy tonight. The News of the World reports that Ed Balls has his campaign primed and ready to detonate. And I’d be very surprised if there aren’t more names about the enter the fray. All this activity is sending electic currents through the Westminster air – and it could end up burning Labour and the Lib Dems. Both sides are are saying that they want to create a “strong” and “stable” government. But how can Clegg & Co. see

Fraser Nelson

Brown saves the worst till last

We have just witnessed Gordon Brown’s last and most audacious confidence trick. “Gordon Brown to resign” says the television newsflash: but the story was the very opposite. Gordon Brown is staying on, saying – pretty much – that it will take an SAS operation to get him out of No.10 before the autumn. He declared a “constitutional duty” to stay until a new administration is formed “with majority support in the House of Commons”. Untrue. You just need a majority to pass laws. One can govern with a parliamentary minority (see Alex Salmond in Edinburgh, and Harold Wilson in 1974). Cameron won the right to govern, when he last week

Peter Hoskin

Brown statement: now with added video

And here’s a transcript of the statement “We have a parliamentary and not presidential system in this country and as I said on Friday, with no party able to command a parliamentary majority arising from the general election, my constitutional duty as prime minister is to ensure that government continues while parties explore options for forming a new administration with majority support in the House of Commons. “The business of government has continued including concerted action in Europe today to avert the financial crisis in the Euro area. Alistair Darling the chancellor spent much of his time yesterday in the European finance ministers meeting in Brussels. This morning I have

James Forsyth

The best possible news for the Tories

Gordon Brown’s announcement that the Liberal Democrats have requested formal coalition talks is the best news that the Conservative party has had since the polls closed on Thursday. David Cameron can now say that his party has negotiated in good faith and that his broad, comprehensive, and open offer to the Lib Dems is on table and they can take it or leave it. If the Lib Dems do end up going into coalition with Labour they would completely discredit themselves and be slaughtered at any subsequent election, remember getting PR through the Lords would take at least a year. The markets would also not be impressed by a coalition

Alex Massie

Clegg Decapitates Brown And a Nightmare Looms

So Gordon will go and the Labour party will elect a new leader in time, he hopes, for the Labour party conference this autumn. The problem with a Lib-Lab coalition of course is that it won’t have a majority. One can see how it could limp along but one cannot but think that while a single-party could soldier on as a majority matters would be much more problematic for a coalition minority. Nor does including the tiny parties strengthen matters much. And so, playing Salome, Clegg has got Gordon’s head on a platter and we now have the extraordinary sight of the Lib Dems negotiating with both parties at the

Peter Hoskin

Gordon Brown announces his resignation

You’re witnessing history, CoffeeHousers: Gordon Brown has just announced his departure from frontline politics. In a statement outside Downing St, he confirmed that he would be stepping down as Labour leader by September – triggering a leadership contest in the process. It’s clear that he’s using himself as a bargaining chip, making a Lib-Lab deal more palatable to Nick Clegg. Indeed, he even said that formal talks between the parties are now commencing. This threatens not just to shake the kaleidoscope, but to smash it to pieces. Until 17:05 this afternoon, most folk thought that a Lib-Con deal was imminent. But surely Brown wouldn’t have taken this step if there

James Forsyth

The return of David Davis

The shadow Cabinet were gathering before their meeting at 2pm. One member told me ‘it is looking less like formal coalition now.’ But coalition remains the leadership’s preferred option. Talking to Tory MPs—old and new—this morning, there’s a sense that they would slightly prefer minority government. Though, no-one is planning to blow themselves up if the country does end up with a Tory-Lib Dem coalition. One other interesting development today is that there is a growing expectation that David Davis will be recalled to the colours. Certainly, his return would make Cameron’s top team more accurately reflect the ideological balance of the party.

Peter Hoskin

Do the Lib-Lab talks alter the landscape?

Isn’t it all very cosy? Turns out the Lib Dem negotiating team secretly met with a Labour delegation over the weekend: Ed Balls, Peter Mandelson, Ed Miliband and Andrew Adonis. And it’s thought that Nick Clegg has had more conversations with Gordon Brown, both on the phone and in person. So the Tories aren’t the only ones enjoying some quality LibTime. It doesn’t really alter the cut of the situation, though. Most folk around Westminster seem to expect a Lib-Con deal, of sorts, at some point today. But Clegg and his team would weaken their hand if they didn’t at least explore every option. The Tory leadership will appreciate this

Fraser Nelson

Who’s using whom?

Another day of live political theatre, staged live at College Green. Given that Cameron last night negotiated a confidence-and-supply deal – ie, enough to keep him in a minority government like Alex Salmond has in Scotland – why is he negotiating further? What’s more to discuss? This is what we find out today. David Steel told Radio Four this morning that Nick Clegg had told him, before the election, that he would put a time cap on any Con-Lib Pact – ie, a shelf life of one or two years. This suggests that the Lib Dems would not fall for the obvious Tory ruse: the offer of a referendum on

James Forsyth

The coalition nears

‘A government by this evening’ is what several Tory MPs have told me they expect. Those who have spoken to David Cameron say that he has no appetite for a second election within 12 months and that he wants the stability of a coalition. David Cameron is in the House of Commons. When I passed him earlier, he was without the entourage that so often accompanies him and was saying hello to those he passed. This might not sound like much but it does suggest that Cameron is adjusting to the new circumstances, that he is taking greater care to be nice to his parliamentary party than he has previously.