Liberal democrats

Election podcast special: 48 hours to go

In today’s election special podcast, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss David Cameron’s election rally with Boris Johnson in Hendon and whether the Mayor of London has been underused during the campaign. We also look at how David Cameron has proven, yet again, to be the essay crisis Prime Minister — showing his passion just in time for polling day. Plus, we discuss how Ed Miliband has surpassed all expectations during the campaign. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Steerpike

Cameron wins 81 seat majority in the (junior) General Election

At last, David Cameron has won an election. First News, a weekly newspaper for school children, organised a national Junior General Election and surprisingly the PM has romped home with 40 per cent of the vote. The Greens beat both Clegg and Farage, and Miliband managed just 22 per cent of the vote. Running these numbers through the BBC’s election seat calculator, it would give Cameron 407 seats and a majority of 81. Here are the results in full: David Cameron, Conservative: 40 per cent Ed Miliband, Labour: 22 per cent Natalie Bennett, Green: 18 per cent Nick Clegg, Lib Dem: 9 per cent Nigel Farage, UKIP: 6 per cent Nicola Sturgeon, SNP: 4

Coffee Shots: SNP voter trolls the Secretary of State for Scotland

Although one recent poll suggested that the SNP will win every seat in Scotland, there are still a few Liberal Democrat MPs who hope to retain their seats come Thursday. However, although Alistair Carmichael, the Secretary of State for Scotland and Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland, winning his seat in 2010 by a majority of nearly 10,000 votes, he ought to be more alert to the dangers of the SNP. On a recent train journey, one SNP voter took a photo of herself posing with her ballot paper while Carmichael dozed off in the background: Mr S suspects that Carmichael won’t be getting much sleep now until polling day.

Steerpike

Michael Gove: Tories could still work with the Lib Dems

The Tories were less than pleased last week when Danny Alexander revealed confidential communications between the coalition partners regarding child benefit to a paper, as part of an election campaign ambush. The disclosure brought back up old tensions in the coalition, with Michael Gove claiming that it simply served as a reminder of the party’s true colours. ‘I don’t think it took the leak from Danny Alexander to make us aware of what the Liberal Democrats are really like,’ he told Mr S. Still, with no majority in sight for the Tories ahead of polling day, the party are in a forgiving mood with regards to working with the party in the future . ‘We are prepared, always,

Portrait of the week | 30 April 2015

Home The British economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, the slowest quarterly growth for two years. The Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out many absurdities in party election promises, noting that most people would see tax and benefit changes that reduced their income; it said that the Conservative and Liberal Democrat plan to increase the personal allowance to £12,500 would not help the 44 per cent of people who now pay no tax, that Labour’s promised 10p tax band would be ‘worth a princely 50 pence a week to most income-tax payers’ and that it could not be sure whether the reintroduction of a

The Lib Dems struggle to replace old political blood with new

The Liberal Democrat resilience in countless marginal seats has confounded many commentators. While perhaps winning half the number of votes as Ukip nationwide, it is far from inconceivable that they will win five to ten times the number of seats. Take Sutton & Cheam, for instance, where despite having a majority of just 1,608 votes, Paul Berstow seems all but certain to retain his seat. This has, quite correctly, been attributed to the personal following of Lib Dem incumbents – and their ability to build an often robust local campaigning machine around their cult of personality. People of all sides of the political spectrum flock to banners, irrespective of their underlying party

Isabel Hardman

A (partial) defence of the spin room

Tonight’s ‘Question Time’-style TV debates will be followed by what has become probably the most hated aspect of this rather uninspiring general election campaign: the spin room. This spectacle of journalists interviewing journalists as they listen to frontbenchers from all the parties parroting lines about how their leader was the best (or, in the Tory case, how well Nicola Sturgeon has been doing) is odd enough inside the room, let alone for those watching at home. The way the politicians spinning talk is even less natural than usual: it’s like a Westminster version of Made In Chelsea, stuffed with people acting at being actors. And yet there is a reason

Miriam González Durántez breaks political protocol at fashion event

After Nick Clegg enjoyed a night out at the pub earlier this month, it only seems fair that his wife Miriam González Durántez should also be allowed to let off some steam. So Mr S was glad to see that she was a guest at last night’s WIE (Women: Inspiration & Enterprise) Awards Gala at Goldsmiths’ Hall. Conscious that her decision to attend a glitzy bash so close to polling day might raise eyebrows, Miriam explained in her speech that she was breaking election etiquette and that Clegg’s political advisors would prefer her to be at home: ‘Unfortunately General Elections are not seen by political advisers as good times for wives of political leaders

Do Labour voters hate the SNP enough to save the Lib Dems?

For someone who might be about to lose her seat, Jo Swinson seems very perky as she walks the streets of Bishopbriggs in her constituency. The Lib Dem, who is standing for re-election in East Dunbartonshire in Scotland, is busy trying to persuade people who have received their postal votes this week to back her. The weather is sunny and warm and the Business and Equalities Minister cheerful, but the outlook isn’t quite so good when you take a glance at the numbers. A poll by Lord Ashcroft last week put the SNP on 40 per cent, with Swinson trailing behind on 29 per cent. That’s a 19.5 per cent

Steerpike

Coffee Shots: Liberal Democrats struggle with the small print

As the Liberal Democrats fight for survival in the general election, word reaches Mr S that things in the yellow camp may be even more dire than first thought. Mr S received this Lib Dem leaflet from one of his sources, the small print of which seems totally incomprehensible. Surely things can’t be so bad that the party can no longer afford spaces between words? As you can see, it’s pretty hard to read: Even when you get closer: And closer: Mr S is getting election fatigue just looking at it. Maybe it’s just best not to read the small print.

The polls could decide the fate of the Lib Dems

A Lib Dem West Country MP told me at the start of the year that he thought his party would keep his seat if the Tories were broadly ahead in the national polls on polling day but lose it if they were level or behind. His thinking was that if it looked like Cameron was going to continue as Prime Minister his constituents would both feel it was safe to vote for a local champion and would want some protection against the Tories cutting public services too far. But if the Tories were behind, he feared that these swing voters would feel that they had to vote Tory to try

Steerpike

Image from Islington: Lib Dems troll Emily Thornberry

It’s St George’s Day today, and presumably Labour’s Emily Thornberry is out looking for ‘amazing’ houses draped in English flags. To help her out (in a way), her Lib Dem rival in Islington Terry Stacy has decided to put this about as his election address: Mr Steerpike is very keen for any other election candidates showing off quite how comfortable they are with flags.

Paddy Ashdown: Grant Shapps is ‘fine man’ who’s ‘never done anything dodgy’

You have to hand it to the Liberal Democrats: they know how to put out a press release. Following accusations in the Guardian that Grant Shapps or someone ‘under his clear direction’ has been editing Wikipedia pages of his rivals, the Lib Dems have put out a press release dripping in sarcasm from Paddy Ashdown: ‘Grant Shapps is a fine man and has never done anything dodgy’. Here is the full text: Grant Shapps is a wonderful human being, a literary great and has in no way ever brought his party or politics into disrepute, the Chairman of the Liberal Democrat General Election Campaign said. Paddy Ashdown called the Conservative

The coming battle for legitimacy

Jonathan Freedland has written a compelling column on the challenge that Ed Miliband will face to establish his legitimacy if he becomes Prime Minister despite Labour not having won the most seats or votes. But I suspect that whoever becomes the government after May the 8th will have difficulty in persuading everyone that they have a right to govern. The Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition could claim that 59 per cent of voters had backed its constituent parts. It also had a comfortable majority in the House of Commons with 364 out of 650 seats. Now, unless something dramatic happens, no governing combination is likely to have anything like that kind of

Matthew Hanc**k’s election leaflets send out the wrong message

Earlier this year Mr S revealed how plans for a set of campaign posters for the Conservative candidate Flick Drummond had to be revised after the Tories realised that from a distance the poster could be misread as another word starting with F. Now Matthew Hancock has fallen victim to an unforeseeable error in his own campaign literature. A Lib Dem supporter has noticed an unfortunate fault that occurs on folding the Tory MP’s campaign leaflet: Mr S hopes no one gets the wrong idea.

Exclusive: Where the next generation of MPs think the burden of cuts should fall

What do the next generation of MPs think with regards to public services, government spending and taxes? Coffee House has got its hands on new research by Ipsos MORI on the opinions of prospective parliamentary candidates from the main parties. The pollsters interviewed almost one hundred PPCs – 26 Conservative, 29 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat and 11 SNP – who are all standing in marginal or safe seats, and therefore stand a good chance of making it to the green benches after the general election. Here are the points that stand out: 1: Defence cuts on the front line Defence cuts lead the way for both Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates who

Rod Liddle

Call me insane, but I’m voting Labour

Quite often when I deliver myself of an opinion to a friend or colleague, the reply will come back: ‘Are you out of your mind? I think that is sectionable under the Mental Health Act.’ In fact, I get that kind of reaction rather more often than, ‘Oh, what a wise and sensible idea, Rod, I commend your acuity.’ There is nothing I say, however, which provokes such fervid and splenetic derision, and the subsequent arrival of pacifying nurses, as when I tell people that I intend to vote Labour at the forthcoming general election. When I tell people that, they look at me the way my dog does when

Hugo Rifkind

Warning: you may be about to vote for more than one government

For the last five years, I’ve been trying to get people interested in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. No, don’t sidle away. Honestly, this is The Spectator. Aren’t you meant to be into this sort of thing? It’s not as though we’re on a date, for God’s sake. It’s not like we’re in a restaurant and the starter has just come, and I’m droning on about the threshold for a vote of no confidence, and you’re draining your third huge glass of red and thinking, ‘This guy looked waaaay more fun on Tinder. Next time I go to the loo I’m climbing out the window.’ That’s not how it is.

David Cameron’s Evan Davis interview: defenceless on defence

“I’ve got it too,” said David Cameron, whipping out the ‘contract with Britain’ he published five years ago. His team seems have prepared him for the format of Evan Davis’s BBC interviews: confront the subject with discomfiting material, probe a bit and see what happens. But he was less prepared for being challenged from the right.  Davis asked him on his failure to commit to the basic Nato minimum of spending 2pc of GDP on defence – in spite of his badgering other countries to do so at the Nato summit in Wales. “I don’t think that you’re willing to say Britain will stick to its international obligation on defence,” he said. “We’re keeping it clearly

New poll shows Tories will benefit from Lib Dem collapse in South West

The Liberal Democrats are facing wipeout in their South Western heartlands. According to a new poll from ComRes/ITV News conducted in 14 Lib Dem seats, there is currently a 13-point swing to the Tories. If this was repeated on May 7, the Lib Dems would lose the following seats to their coalition partners: Bath, Cheltenham, Chippenham, Cornwall North, Devon North, Dorset Mid & Poole North, Somerton & Frome, St Austell & Newquay, St Ives, Taunton Deane, Thornbury & Yate, Torbay, Wells, Yeovil. Senior party figures who would be out include policy guru and Cabinet Office minister David Laws and the pensions minister Steve Webb. One of the reasons for the collapsing Lib