Iran

Wednesday

John Jenkins

Soleimani’s assassination has exposed the EU’s big weakness

What a difference a day makes. When I went to bed on 2 January what seemed to be the most important issue in the Middle East was the long-term impact of the brave – if desperate – mass protests in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. Many were trying to extract some positive meaning: were they the precursor of a renewed popular drive for better governance in some of the key states of the region? Could they shake the stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its grip on the greater Levant? Or would they be suppressed and ignored, only to recur more virulently, as had happened so many times before?

David Patrikarakos David Patrikarakos

Could Iran’s retaliation against the United States lead to war?

So it happened. Iran has just struck back against the United States for its killing of Quds force chief Qassem Soleimani on 3 January. The Iranians had vowed to retaliate from almost the moment that their most potent – and famous – commander was killed. Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei had vowed a “severe revenge.” Now it has come. And while it may not so far be “severe “exactly, it was undoubtedly swift and it was bold. Details are still pouring in about the strike but it is clear that Iran has struck two bases housing US and coalition forces in Iraq with more than a dozen missiles. The strikes targeted

Tuesday

Claire Fox

My clash with Alastair Campbell convinced me it’s time to hug a remainer

I confess I had butterflies doing the first BBC Politics Live of 2020. It felt like the first day back at school. Beyond Twitter spats and Christmas family banter, the festive period had been politics-free. Would I be rusty, especially as one of the other panelists was the formidable Alastair Campbell? As a former People’s Vote heavyweight, Campbell is something of an arch nemesis who has a reputation for taking no prisoners. But regardless, one of my new year resolutions is to not dwell on past enmities. I am keen to build some unity, in order to make Brexit as productive as possible. Ahead of the programme, I reminded myself of the importance of not

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Boris Johnson’s dismal response to Qasem Soleimani’s assassination

Two weeks ago, I asked what kind of prime minister Boris Johnson might be and whether he could be ‘the great disruptor’ on foreign policy, defying standard practices and elite assumptions as Donald Trump has. I think I might have my answer. On Trump’s decision to take out Iranian terrorist-in-chief Qasem Soleimani, the Prime Minister was silent for two days. When he finally spoke, it was hardly worth it. Of course Johnson was right to say, given the Quds Force head’s role in the killing of thousands of civilians, ‘we will not lament his death’. He was right too to warn Tehran against escalation. But in stopping there and failing

Saturday

Seth J. Frantzman

Qasem Soleimani’s demise is a gamechanger for Israel

The targeted assassination of Qasem Soleimani is a game changer for Israel in its simmering conflict with Tehran. This drone strike could mean an Iranian attack on Israel in response. But whether Iran seeks to attack or not, it means that the country’s remaining allies in the region – such as Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah – will know they could meet a similar, sticky end to Soleimani. For Israel, Trump’s decision to target Soleimani is a moment to celebrate. Israel viewed the Iranian Quds Force commander as a central figure behind Tehran’s threats to destroy Israel. In August, Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu gave a stark warning to Soleimani, blaming him for

David Patrikarakos David Patrikarakos

Iran’s generals are weeping for Qasem Soleimani. But soon they will prepare to fight

It has been 24 hours since America droned Qasem Soleimani near Baghdad airport. Now both Iran and the United States are getting ready to deal with a new reality in the Middle East that has (quite literally) exploded into being. There is a mutual recognition that when Soleimani died, the old rules of the game died alongside him. What is instructive about his assassination is not that it happened, but that it took so long. After all, this was a man whose carefully posed portrait spread across Twitter every time he visited yet another of Iran’s many wars in the region. If I knew when Haji Qasem was in Syria, then the Americans surely did too.

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through the coming Iran crisis

That gathering drumbeat you hear could be the sound of World War III, or it could be 10,000 journalists still Googling facts about Iran following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. The internet is a bluffer’s paradise, but it also means that everybody— not just the hacks — now feels a strong impulse to talk knowledgeably about the Middle East when news happens. You have to know your Shiite, as they say, your IRGC from your Kataib Hizbollah. Don’t muddle Khamenei with Khomeini. But more importantly don’t be afraid! The Spectator is here with some handy phrases to get you through any difficult Twitter spat or pub chat. 1) Say ‘Iran’s

Friday

Robert Peston

How will Boris Johnson respond to Qassem Soleimani’s killing?

President Trump’s decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani accelerates perhaps the most important post-Brexit decision faced by Boris Johnson: whether to stand with the US or the EU at moments of potentially acute global crisis. What happens next will largely be conditioned by how Iran responds and retaliates. But all Western governments are examining their options. In particular, France’s president Macron will be working hard to forge a coordinated EU and European response, not least because through the G7 over the summer he endeavoured to engineer a dialogue between president Trump and Iran. Those close to Macron say he admires Johnson. But there are members of the government who harbour the

John R. Bradley

The Soleimani assassination is Donald Trump’s biggest gamble yet

Ever since Donald Trump was elected president on a non-military interventionist platform, sceptics have questioned his commitment to withdrawing troops from the Middle Eastern quagmire and stopping the endless wars he claims to despise. Now he has authorised the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful Iranian Quds Force, we can be in absolutely no doubt on whether he stands: he’s no different to the other US presidents. It’s a massive strategic gamble. Soleimani was the second most powerful figure in Iran, answering only to the Ayatollah himself. For more than a decade he has been the architect of Iran’s regional military strategy. He helped Iraq and Syria

Thursday

John R. Bradley

The alliance between America and Saudi Arabia is over

The oil-for-security alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia, forged in 1945 when Franklin D. Roosevelt met King Abdul Aziz aboard a US Navy destroyer, is now over. Just look at the American reaction to the attack by Iran on Saudi oil facilities. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo duly called it an ‘act of war’; the Wall Street Journal told us the attack was ‘the big one’. But then nothing: President Donald Trump merely shrugged and declared the US energy independent. ‘We don’t need Middle Eastern Oil & Gas,’ he said. Industry experts warned that such an assessment was premature; but oil prices stabilised and the sound of war drums

Wednesday

Daniel DePetris

Emmanuel Macron could be the big loser from the Saudi drone attack

Saudis woke up last Saturday to find the crown jewel of their oil industry in smoke. The attack on the al-Abqaiq oil processing facility, allegedly conducted by cruise missiles and launched from a staging area inside Iran, resulted in the sharpest single-day increase in crude prices since the 1991 Gulf War. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil installation, however, wasn’t the only thing that went up in smoke last weekend. The volley of missiles screeching into Saudi airspace may have also ruined French president Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to deescalate tensions in the Persian Gulf and save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal from a slow and agonising death. The French president has been hard

Thursday

The Spectator

Letters: There is more to village life than shutters, benches and paint

Shambles at sea Sir: On 19 July Iranian Republican Guard forces captured the UK flagged tanker Stena Impero, as described by former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt in her Spectator Diary (3 August). It was a national humiliation and it needn’t have happened. As was made clear at the House of Commons Defence Committee hearing on 9 September, warnings were being given about possible Iranian actions as early as mid-June. The UK naval presence in the area comprised only one frigate, HMS Montrose, and more ships were needed to protect UK shipping. The HCDC was surprised to discover from Mordaunt that she had been trying to stimulate a response, but had

Sunday

D Guppy

What Britain can learn from Iran about sovereignty

‘Great Minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.’ (Eleanor Roosevelt) The essay which follows is about ideas, not people, for people – now more than ever – no matter what office they may hold, have far less agency than they imagine. It is ideas that change the world. Accordingly, the discussion below is not meant to constitute advice to any particular individual and should not be construed as such. The fact that a crisis in our diplomatic relations with Iran should have synchronised with a school chum’s appointment as Prime Minister is happenstance. To those trolls on Twitter who would wish to put a different spin

Thursday

Peter Jones

Persia’s lessons for the PM

Stanley Johnson suggests his son, the PM, will easily deal with Iran because he is well acquainted with Persian history and knows all about kings such as Darius and Xerxes. But talking ancient history with Ayatollahs could have its problems. Here, for example, is what Herodotus (d. c. 425 bc) had to say about Darius. Distantly related to the royal family, he served loyally under King Cambyses, at whose death in 522 bc a usurper took power. Darius plotted with six others to dethrone him, suggesting they should lie their way into the palace and kill him: ‘Where a lie must be told, tell it. Those who lie and those

Penny Mordaunt

Diary – 1 August 2019

I begin the week in Bamako, Mali, with a crackly telephone call to Commodore Dean Bassett, UK Maritime Component Commander in the Gulf. He informs me that HMS Montrose and the Maritime Trade Operation has seen 30 ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz. These ships had been given 24 hours’ notice for their transit. Another, Stena Impero, had not made it through. Montrose was given only 60 minutes notice for her transit. Despite increasing to flank speed, she was 20 minutes too late and steamed into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The anger and disappointment is evident in the Commodore’s voice as he professionally delivers his report. I thank him

Thursday

The Spectator

Portrait of the week | 25 July 2019

Home Boris Johnson became Prime Minister after being elected the leader of the Conservative party by its members, with 92,153 votes to Jeremy Hunt’s 46,656 and a turnout of 87.4 per cent. Philip Hammond got his resignation as chancellor of the exchequer in before he could be sacked, as did David Gauke as justice secretary and Sir Alan Duncan as a Foreign Office minister. Plots were afoot to undermine Mr Johnson’s promise to leave the European Union by 31 October, with or without an agreement. David Frost, a former chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association, was appointed to the job of liaising with the EU over Brexit, relinquished by

Andrew Bacevich

Diplomacy by deference

Iran’s seizure of a British-owned oil tanker transiting the Persian Gulf has let loose a fresh round of media war chatter. Yet should another Persian Gulf War actually occur, who would benefit? Not America, that’s for sure. The central theme of present-day US policy regarding Iran is deference. Nominally, US policy is made in Washington. Substantively, it is framed in Riyadh and Jerusalem, with the interests of the United States figuring only minimally in determining the result. I am not suggesting that President Donald Trump supinely complies with secret marching orders from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Indeed, MBS and Netanyahu are both

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Dominic Raab has to handle a stand-off with Iran and his own civil servants

It’s not an easy time to become Foreign Secretary, as Dominic Raab is about to find out. There is, of course, the crisis in relations with Iran, which threatens to escalate further in the coming days. Raab is taking over shortly after Jeremy Hunt announced a European-led mission to protect shipping in the Gulf, which may not necessarily accord with Boris Johnson’s own foreign policy instincts. One of the reasons that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was able to seize the British-flagged tanker was that Britain had turned down the US’s suggestion of co-operation to protect boats, for fear of appearing too cosy with Donald Trump. Johnson has no such qualms

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Alan Duncan’s resignation just adds to the chaos in the Foreign Office

Sir Alan Duncan’s resignation will only leave a hole in the Foreign Office for a couple of days before the new prime minister replaces him. But he’s not the only missing minister in that department: Mark Field is suspended while the incident at Mansion House is investigated. Duncan had been covering some of Field’s responsibilities over the past few weeks, and now he is off too, just as the crisis in relations with Iran deepens. Jeremy Hunt, meanwhile, has been busy conducting a leadership campaign, all of which gives the Foreign Office, normally the most composed and regal part of Whitehall, a slightly chaotic, neglected feel. This may change mid-week

Saturday

Rod Liddle

On Iran and oil tankers

I’m glad the Foreign Secretary thinks it ‘unacceptable’ of Iran to have seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. But wouldn’t it have been a decent idea to give any British-flagged ships sailing through that tiny strait a naval escort? The risk was always there, ever since we seized an Iranian tanker at Gibraltar. Was the possibility of escorting tankers considered by the government?