International politics

Wednesday

Daniel Korski

Libya diary: Tobruk

Twelve different checks later and I’m in Free Libya, hurling down the road to Tobruk at 100 mph, with Arabic music blasting away. This place is firmly held rebel territory and most journalists have moved towards the battlefields further west. A pair of beautiful American relief workers tell me just to keep going “to see real action”. They’ve just from Benghazi and are headed back to Egypt. They grab my driver. Tobruk, though, has plenty of action for me; and I need to get back to my programme in Cairo. After all, I’m a think-tanker, not a war correspondent. I stop by the oil refinery which is beginning to run

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Another Libyan question

Far from quiet on Libya’s shifting battlefront. The latest reports are that the rebel advance has stalled, and is now moving backwards in the face of Gaddafi’s overwhelming firepower. Yet as disheartening as this development may be, it is hardly unexpected: America’s General Ham all but described it as an inevitability only a couple of days ago. And so the rebels’ representatives have now made an equally inevitable demand of the politicians congregating in London: arm us, and we can make progress once again. In which case, there’s another question for the pile: to arm, or not to arm? And it is not clear-cut, either way. While the West appears

David Blackburn

It’s happening in Monterrey

Nick Clegg is in Mexico, striving to build a trade relationship. The Guardian reports that Clegg will address the Mexican Senate, in Spanish. He will concentrate on praising the education sector, which he hopes to export. There are also plans to open British universities to affluent Mexicans, and Clegg is being accompanied by four universities vice chancellors and David Willetts. At the moment, trade between Britain and Mexico, the world’s 14th largest economy, is negligible – Clegg claims that Britain accounts for less than 1 percent of rapidly developing Mexico’s imports. There are huge opportunities to expand. UK Trade and Investment has 3 dedicated offices in Mexico and it is

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: Libyan transit

The road from Cairo to Salloum, Egypt’s Wild West town on the border with Libya, stretches out into the desert until the patched-up, grey and black cement blurs into the yellow dunes. Throughout the journey, well-kept electricity pylons line the road, while the occasional shepherd looks out from a desolate shed-like house. Otherwise there is nothing to see.  This is the road to war, or away from it. I expected to see more people fleeing the conflict; but at the last roadside café, life seems to be following its normal routine. Bedouin waiters mingle quietly with smugglers, relief workers and the occasional journalist. In the background, President Obama’s speech is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What to do with Gaddafi?

The charge sheet against Colonel Gaddafi in any trial would be a long one. There are his crimes against his own people, his support of terrorism overseas and his wars in Chad. But, however morally right it would be to make Gaddafi face justice, the door should be left open to him to go into exile. Gaddafi and his family leaving Libya would make possible an end to this conflict and prevent huge bloodshed as Gaddafi attempts to cling on to power street by street. The unpleasant truth is that if dictators are left only with the choice between fighting to the bitter end and a trial in the Hague,

Monday

David Blackburn

Cameron’s Libyan double standard

After the Libyan blood money scandal at the LSE, inquiries were bound to be made about other universities. Robert Halfon, the Conservative MP for Harlow, has exposed how Liverpool John Moores University (LJMU) agreed to contracts with Gaddafi’s Libya worth at least £1,272,000.00. (He has since been threatened with a defamation suit for pointing this out, but that’s for another time.) He raised the issue in parliament and the Prime Minister replied: ‘I think that there are lessons to be learned. As I have said, I think that it was right (of the previous government) to respond to what Libya did in terms of weapons of mass destruction, but I

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: it’s the economy, stupid

Whether revolutions devour their own children often depends on the ability of a post-revolutionary government to deliver political freedom, jobs and services. Egypt is no different. If the economy opens up, then the country’s transition to democracy is likely to continue. If not, then anything can happen. So, which will it be? The stock exchange has reopened and is doing better than many expected. The government is bullish about growth, but it is hard to see where it will come from. Tourists, who account for a major part of the economy, are staying at home. Hotels are empty and BA is cancelling flights due to lack of passengers. The uncertainty

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: will Egypt help in Libya?

Nothing would help the international campaign against Colonel Gaddafi as much as the Egyptian military — and therefore Egypt — swinging in behind the UN-authorised effort. It would be one of the few things that would make the Libyan dictator worry and could push fence-sitting loyalists towards the rebel cause. Materially, it could also be important; with the Libyan resistance reluctant to receive Nato help, Egypt could be very helpful as a conduit for weapons, intelligence and even on-the-ground military support. A post-combat mission would also be greatly aided by Egyptian involvement or leadership. Unfortunately, after a few days in Cairo, I think it is more likely that Colonel Gaddafi

Peter Hoskin

The rebels press on in Libya, but questions remain

As Nato takes full military responsibility in Libya, the rebels surge onwards in the direction of Tripoli. According to one of the group’s spokesmen, Gaddafi’s hometown of Sirte — some 280 miles east of the capital — fell to their attacks last night; although there are reports, still, of explosions there this morning. In any case, the tidal shift that took hold at the beginning of the weekend is continuing. The rebels are now seizing ground, rather than ceding it. All this is, if not vindication for the Western leaders who pressed for a no-fly zone, then at least encouragement. It suggests that the one-two combination of Nato air support

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: curfew

Driving through post-revolution Cairo at night is eerie. The normally busy streets are deserted, most of the city’s  squares and roads are blocked by military checkpoints, and dark clad figures slip in and out of the shadows. Breaking the curfew may result in a six month sentence, or worse. Come dawn, however, the city springs to life, looking like it has done for millennia — busy, noisy, lively. This tale of two cities — one cowered, quiet and run by the military, and another that is lively, chaotic and civilian — is perhaps a tale not only of Cairo, but of Egypt in the midst of an ongoing transition. For

Daniel Korski

The government should acknowledge Israeli restraint

With NATO planes circling above Libya, Saudi troops quashing protests in Bahrain, and troops killing civilians in Syria and Yemen, there has been little attention paid to Israel. But Israel has recently been the victim of a series of violent attacks. More than 30 people were injured in a bombing in Jerusalem, and Islamic Jihad’s military wing, the Al-Quds Brigade, has fired mortars and rockets into Israel for days on end. The attacks suggest that Hamas is, once again, struggling to rein in other terrorist groups like Islamic Jihad. Some IDF commanders fear a descent into chaos in Gaza. In the face of the onslaught, however, the Israeli government has

Saturday

Daniel Korski

The Libyan resistance is on the front foot

The fight between Colonel Gaddafi’s forces and the resistance to his rule will clearly take some time, but the rebels have had a good 24 hours.  In Brega, Gaddafi’s forces deserted in large numbers, handing 10 vehicles over to rebels. A loyalist brigadier was killed and in Ajdabiya government forces withdrew overnight, while rebels also made progress in Zintan.   The RAF made a key a contribution: its aggressive supported the rebels holding out in Misrata, taking out a number of APCs and a loyalist tank.  Best of all, however, is the news that a Brazilian plastic surgeon has told Gulf News how he took fat out of Colonel Gaddafi’s

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The joy of diversion

“We should have more history on the programme,” said Evan Davis at the end of yesterday’s episode of R4’s Today. “I learned a lot from that.” He had just been interviewing Peter Jones (listen here) about a piece in this week’s Spectator about the two Libyas — a split which may emerge as a result of the fly zone. Tripoli and Benghazi were originally part of two different worlds: Roman and Greek. For these coastal towns, north-south sea routes were more important than east-west road routes (which 500 miles of desert made pretty much impossible). Just as the Kurds managed independence in the north of Iraq after the 1992 No

Friday

Peter Hoskin

From the archive: the consequences of Nato bombing Kosovo

There are two reasons to return to the Kosovo Conflict for this week’s hit from the archives. First, of course, the surface parallels with Libya: Nato involvement, bombing raids, all that. Second, that yesterday was the 12th anniversary of Nato’s first operation in Kosovo. Here’s Bruce Anderson’s take from the time: Milosevic has Kosovo, Nato has no idea, Bruce Anderson, The Spectator, 3 April 1999 There is a precedent for Kosovan conflict: Suez. Then, as now, our indignation was inflamed by misleading historical analogies; Milosevic is not Hitler, any more than Nasser was. Then, as now, we were afflicted by geopolitical tunnel vision, and lost all contact with the wider

David Blackburn

Merkel is running out of patience with the eurozone

Like an unseasonal Atlantic gale, the Portuguese sovereign debt crisis has blown in to ruin the latest EU summit. This meeting was intended to mark the beginning of the end of the eurozone crisis. Instead, the ponderous European Union has been overtaken by events, with grave consequences. Already speculation about contagion is rife: Spain, Malta* and Italy are now being spoken of in hushed and exasperated tones. The Economist’s Charlemagne correspondent reports that several countries are now wary of the monetary pact that Germany is demanding for delving deeper into its pockets, because they do not want to be accused of surrendering sovereignty. Likewise, the injection into the European Financial

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Libya: next steps

The Libya intervention goes on, with as many question marks hanging over the operation as airplanes in the sky. What is the aim? Who will run it? Can the United States, Britain and France keep allies such as Turkey on board? Behind the scenes, officials are said to be looking at various options, including if and how to support the rebels. But the hand-wringing is now even audible across St James Park. Realistically, the UK should in the first instance work towards establishing a stalemate between loyalists and rebels. From such a stalemate a political process can then begin, which, though it may take many years and continue during the

Mats Persson

Cameron’s €4 billion Portuguese challenge

As if the budget and Libya weren’t enough, the UK Government woke up today with another major challenge on its hands – yet another flare-up in the eurozone debt crisis, which has been continuing to bubble away under the radar.   Yesterday, Portugal’s Prime Minister José Sócrates literally walked out of Parliament, during a debate on EU-backed austerity measures. The austerity package was subsequently voted down and shortly afterwards Sócrates announced his resignation. Portugal is now facing the prospect of being without a government for months, as its electoral rules require a 55 day break between the dissolution of Parliament and new elections.   The episode has increased the already

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Libya operation will take months not weeks

With the Budget over, attention is beginning to shift back to the situation in Libya. A government source tells me that they expect the mission in Libya now to run for months not weeks. The challenge is that while the allies can stop Gaddafi’s forces from advancing from the sky, they can’t make the poorly organised and poorly armed rebels advance. There’s also an arms embargo in place on the whole of Libya and while some small arms are moving across the border with Egypt into the rebel-held east, the Gaddafi regime still remains far-better armed. This conflict could be over very quickly if those inside the regime turn against

Tuesday

Jo Johnson-Mp

Web Exclusive: HolyBookers 1 – Facebookers 0

Cairo The Facebook and Twitter revolutionaries are taking a beating at the hands of the Brothers. The results of Saturday’s referendum are now out and they point to a simple truth: the internet was fine as a tool for gathering a few hundred thousand youths in Tahrir Square; but it is largely irrelevant as a means of winning elections across large swathes of Egypt, where three-quarters of the 83 million population have no internet connection at all. On a massive turnout, and in the fairest vote in the country’s modern history, 77 per cent of Egyptians sided with the Muslim Brotherhood in saying “Yes” to a quick and dirty patch-up

Daniel Korski

Ending Cameron’s War

The coalition is now in danger of coming unstuck — not because of failure, but because of its success. It needs to urgently decide how to run itself and what its aims are. Before it runs out of targets. Neither is easy to do. The US may want to handover control of the mission but there is not really anyone they can transfer authority to. NATO is being blocked from assuming control, the EU does not have the wherewithal — its naval mission off Somalia’s coast is already run out of Permanent Joint Headquarters in north London — and the UK and France would struggle to run the mission, either