International politics

Wednesday

Daniel Korski

Hague’s return

William Hague has had a good war. He began poorly, as the FCO struggled to evacuate Britons from Libya. But since then, the Foreign Secretary has showed deft diplomatic skill and leadership. The FCO has been focused on Libya and every able-bodied person has been drafted into duty, with diplomats now running the operation in No 10, and the Cabinet Office. On the Today programme, the Foreign Secretary batted away the idea, much loved by realists and pessimists, that because Britain did not know, with forensic detail, how exactly the intervention would end, it should not have become involved. There are many mountains still to climb. European governments need to

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Another one bites the dust | 12 April 2011

The conflict in the Ivory Coast looks as though it is now coming to and end. Former president Laurent Gbagbo was arrested yesterday by French officials supporting President Alassane Ouattara, after weeks of violent fighting. Gbagbo lost re-election last November to Ouattara but refused to give up power. Gbagbo, who was in office for more than a decade, will now be investigated for possible war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a momentous event. The continent’s post-independence “big men” had, over decades, become accustomed to permanent power. If they lost an election, they simply threatened (or encouraged) violence until a power-sharing deal was cobbled together which allowed them to

Monday

Daniel Korski

Can Nato cope in Libya?

Just because Nicolas Sarkozy believes something does not make it untrue. The French president was adamant that Nato shouldn’t take over the Libya campaign. He preferred to run an ad hoc coalition of the willing. Britain, however, was keen for the alliance to take control of a mission that seemed too loosely-organised. Once the United States decided to fade into the background of the military operation, the impetus for a switch to Nato grew. A few weeks into the transfer, people are beginning to wonder whether President Sarkozy was right in the first place. According to yesterday’s Sunday Times, Nato is doing what it did in Bosnia: blocking the rebels

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Ferguson’s triumph

The last episode of Niall Ferguson’s documentary series, Civilization, has just been aired — and for those who missed it, it’s time to buy the DVD box set. Or, better still, read the book. Ferguson is, for my money, one of the most compelling, readable and original historians writing today. His books stand out for throwaway lines which can change the way you think about what’s happening now. Understanding of history shapes our politics, whether we admit it or not. And myths about history also fuel political myths. How often do we hear it said that the Great Depression came about because government didn’t borrow in the hard times? A

Friday

Mats Persson

Europe, and the UK, should be much more proactive about Portugal

As Portugal bites the dust – following Ireland and Greece in asking for an EU bail-out – the most important question is still not being asked by EU policy-makers, or by the British government for that matter: will a bail-out actually solve any of Portugal’s problems? The simple answer is, it won’t. Asking the European Central Bank to take on more junk bonds, or piling more taxpayer-backed loans on Portugal’s already heavily indebted economy is not a long term solution. Ireland and Greece have already sought to renegotiate their bail-out terms as they are struggling to grow fast enough to repay their EU/IMF loans (ECB rate increases like the one

Daniel Korski

Libya: winning the stalemate

Author Alison Pargeter picks up the debate about Libya and al Qaeda in this morning’s Times (£), dismissing the idea that a new “jihadist hotspot” is being created. As I wrote some time ago, it is difficult even for people who have travelled in eastern Libya to know anything for sure. I hear from sources in Benghazi that the Islamists number among some of the better troops – having had training and experience in fighting. They offer what one person called “small unit cohesion”, in contrast to poorly-organised rebel force. But they do not seem to run or even hold sway over the movement. The bigger question in Libya right

David Blackburn

Dylan urged to stop blowing with the wind

As one famous artist vanished in Beijing, another appeared. Bob Dylan has begun a tour of China in the same week as Ai Weiwei became the most prominent victim of Beijing’s current repression drive. Ai has been unlawfully incarcerated for what the authorities describe as ‘economic crimes’, and the cry has gone out for his release. Except that the cry has been more of a whimper. Western governments have largely ignored Beijing’s clampdown, which began in February as democratic activism spread from Cairo to Chinese websites. No trade sanctions or UN Resolutions are being issued here, just stern communiqués. Some human rights activists have called on Bob Dylan’s celebrity to

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Gaddafi’s refugee army

There is one particular question swirling around when it comes to Libya: how brittle is the regime and its military arm? An answer is now slowly emerging, and one that looks like good news for the rebels – if also yet more proof of Gaddafi’s depravity. Reuters is running a story about refugees inside Libya, predominantly from sub-Sahara, being detained, beaten and robbed of their identity papers by Libyan soldiers only to be offered money to take up arms against the rebels. Fergo Fevomoye, a 23-year-old refugee who crossed the Libyan-Tunisian border, told Reuters: “They will give you a gun and train you like a soldier. Then you fight the

Wednesday

Daniel Korski

Goldstone recants

Judge Richard Goldstone has changed his mind. Writing in the Washington Post, he admits that his “fact-finding mission had no evidence” for key allegations made in the UN report into the Gaza war that bears his name, including the claim that Israel intentionally targeted civilians “as a matter of policy.” Wow! That’s the only possible reaction. The Goldstone report, released on September 15, 2009, concluded that both Israel and Hamas had committed war crimes by intentionally targeting civilians. The committee did not receive information from Israel that would have contradicted these conclusions because the Israeli government refused to cooperate with members of the fact-finding mission. Now the South African jurist

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Lords: government not championing European single market “strongly”

Tucked away in an old building, where few people knows of its existence, lives one of the most important parliamentary creatures – the House of Lords European Union Committee. Often ignored because it applies analysis to a debate where loudness is the main currency, it has produced a new report on the Single Market. The government would do well to read it. For pushing the Single Market should be what animates the Europe Directorate in the Foreign Office. The Single Market is the main reason for British membership of the EU and the committee implies that successive governments, including the Cameron administration, have dropped the ball in this area. As

Monday

Daniel Korski

Is al Qaeda in Libya?

This is one of the key questions about the Libya intervention. The Libyan Fighting Islamic Group was once one of the largest jihadist groups in the world and many Libyans fought in Iraq. So the fear of al Qaeda’s presence in Libya is well-founded. The terrorist network certainly appears to be trying to associate itself with the rebellion, much as the Muslim Brotherhood tried to exploit events at Tahrir Square. But there is very little evidence to fuel concern about Al Qaeda, except for a quote from Admiral James Stavridis, who said that there had been “flickers in the intelligence of potential al Qaeda” and “Hizbollah” involvement. Notice the word

Saturday

David Blackburn

Death on the road to Brega

NATO has accidently bombed a rebel convoy on the road to Brega. Casualties are understood to have been heavy and, judging by footage, the rebels at the scene are pretty exercised: lots of angry tears, outraged rhetoric and shooting in the air.  An emotional  response is understandable in the aftermath of tragedy, especially in the fraternal fever of rebellion. However, the response does reveal something about the rebels’ military sense and capability: firing guns in the air without thought to what may be above is symptomatic of the martial indiscipline hampering their efforts. NATO is conducting an inquiry into this affair, but it seems that the flight turned on the

Friday

Daniel Korski

The pressing need to oust Gaddafi

The op-ed by David Cameron and his Qatari counterpart Hamed Bin Jassem in the run-up to the London conference received very little play in the UK media. That’s a shame because it set out, anew, the reasons for the Libyan intervention, which are already at risk of being lost in the debate about ways, means and exits. ‘Yesterday, reports reached us of fresh attacks on the people of Misurata. Snipers are gunning people down in the street. Food, water and electricity supplies have been cut off. Ghaddafi and his regime are continuing to carry out acts of appalling brutality and cruelty, in clear and flagrant breach of the UN Resolution.

David Blackburn

Shaky dealings are damaging the reputation of Britain’s universities

A delegation from Durham University flew to Kuwait in February to build what it termed ‘academic partnerships’. They succeeded. On Monday afternoon, Durham University announced the formation of the ‘Al-Sabah Programme in International Relations, Regional Politics and Security.’ In an internal document sent to academic staff, the Vice-Chancellor, Professor Chris Higgins, revealed that that this seat had been ‘funded personally by Sheikh Nasser Al-Sabah of Kuwait’, the Kuwati Prime Minister, and that the ‘£2.5million endowment will support the Al-Sabah Chair, associated research and two PhD studentships in perpetuity’. Al-Sabah has made what is politely termed a singular contribution to democratic traditions. He was appointed in 2006 by his uncle, the

David Blackburn

How to encourage the others

Lord Malloch Brown has inverted Voltaire’s maxim on the execution of Admiral Byng: treat Moussa Koussa well to encourage the others. Most of this morning’s papers expect further defections from the Gaddafi regime ‘within days’. These defections are expected to come from Gaddafi’s civil administration; the Colonel’s military and security arms remain fiercely loyal. The Foreign Office refuses to give a ‘running commentary’ on events, but the confidence of its officials is ill-disguised. It is increasingly apparent that Tripoli is spiralling into desperation and that the fetid regime is fracturing. The Guardian reports that an aide of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Mohammad Ismail, has been in London. Details are scarce but

Thursday

David Blackburn

Irish banks in a worse state than was thought

Robert Peston called it: the Irish banks are mired. The latest round of stress tests has been conducted and the headline figure is that the Irish banks face a shortfall of 24 billion euros. A major recapitalisation will follow and it’s likely that more institutions will be taken under state control. Ireland is also likely to ask for more cash from the EU. These tests were based on conservative criteria, where the Irish economy contracted by 1.6 percent this year, unemployment peaked at 15.8 percent and there was a cumulative collapse in property prices of 62 percent. It’s grim in Ireland, but not that grim: most forecasters are predicting GNP

Daniel Korski

How to help the rebels

The lack of weaponry is not the only problem plaguing the Libyan rebel forces. Their disordered retreat reveals that they need training, better organisation and in-theatre liaison and support. From what I saw, the Transitional Council is very well organised politically, but there is a general lack of military cohesion. Youthful volunteers and self-armed families are fighting alongside ex-loyalists. (There also seems to be a significant Muslim Brotherhood/Islamist presence, though the Council has detained a number of Al Qaeda associates.) Communications are poor because the rebels rely on mobile phones, which rarely work on the front. NATO has now taken over the air and naval mission, but it will struggle

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: The Brotherhood

Back in Cairo, I try to find answers to what everyone wants to know. Who are the Muslim Brotherhood? What role will the Muslim Brotherhood play in the future? Even to seasoned observers it seems hard to divine. Their support in the country has never been tested and the constitutional referendum, where the brotherhood was on the winning side, is a poor proxy. What is clear, however, is that they have the organisational muscle the post-Tahrir Square parties lack. And that they are willing to play a long game, rejecting a shot at the presidency for example for fear of a backlash against them. Though some members talk of Turkey’s

David Blackburn

The first rat abandons ship?

Moussa Koussa, one of Gaddafi’s closest henchmen, has given himself up in Britain. He left Tripoli supposedly on a diplomatic mission, but arrived in Britain declaring that he “no longer wanted to serve the regime”. This development suggests that the regime is crumbling and pundits opine that the balance has now tipped against Colonel Gaddafi. It has also emerged that President Obama has authorised covert support to be given to the hotch-potch rebellion, which may yet prove decisive. Gaddafi will now have to make do without Koussa’s skill and clout, which may pose the Colonel a problem if he needs diplomacy to save his neck. However, Gaddafi’s blitzkrieg is still

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Rebel setbacks create an almighty headache for NATO

The Auk and the Desert Fox ride again. As in 1941-2, the military position along on Libya’s northern coastal road is extremely fluid. After the celebrated rebel gains over the weekend, Gaddafi has counter-attacked without remorse. Skirmishes escalated yesterday and now the rebels are in full retreat (£) from the strategically vital oil town of Ras Lanuf, running from Gaddafi’s superior onslaught. It’s apparent that the rebels need heavy arms to secure their gains, let alone beat Gaddafi. As Pete noted yesterday, the west is (rightly) wary of such a move and there’s nothing to suggest that Arab states are any less reluctant. Besides, it is unclear if the UN