Heathrow

Call me a cynic, but I suspect this week’s headlines about a revival of Heathrow’s third runway plan amount to little more than a political game. Arguments for and against this project have been aired many times over, from a white paper in 2003 to the Davies Commission’s final report (in favour) in 2015. Much to the detriment of London’s status as a global city, the runway has stayed in the long grass – due to marginal-seat politics under the flight path as much as genuine environmental concern – while no satisfactory alternative at Gatwick or Stansted has ever advanced and the advent of the Elizabeth line is Heathrow’s only

It looked like the courts had solved Boris Johnson’s third Heathrow runway problem when they ruled it illegal in February because of the actions the government is committed to on climate change. But this morning, the Supreme Court has overturned the Court of Appeals’ decision. This means that Heathrow can now seek planning permission for a third runway. There’s a long way from seeking planning permission to the bulldozers, which Johnson has promised to lie down in front of, moving in. There will undoubtedly be more legal challenges and court cases before this is finally resolved one way or the other; the government first backed a third runway at Heathrow

The government’s most unpopular policy on its own benches is its plan to make almost everyone arriving in this country quarantine for 14 days. Among backbenchers and the outer cabinet this policy is disliked with an increasing intensity. ‘Colleagues absolutely hate it’, one cabinet minister tells me. Some backbenchers dislike it because it will hit their own constituencies particularly hard – airlines and airports will lay off more staff because of it. Others dislike the ‘Britain is closed for business’ message it sends out. While for a growing number of ministers it has become a focus of their resentment at how policy is made with their minimal involvement – cabinet

It may well be, as Tom Goodenough argued here earlier, that Boris Johnson is secretly delighted at the Court of Appeal’s ruling that is was illegal for the government to give the go-ahead to a third runway at Heathrow without taking into account their own climate policy. The Prime Minister had, after all, promised his constituents that he would lie down in front of the bulldozers to stop a third runway. He now has the cover of a court decision to shield him from the Conservative party’s pro-runway elements if the project ends up being dropped. But the Prime Minister should be extremely concerned about the wider implications of this

Downing Street is acutely aware that one of the biggest dangers to this government is losing voters’ trust. As I say in the Sun today, if people come to see this administration as just another bunch of politicians who don’t do what they said they would, then it is doomed. Number 10 also knows that Boris Johnson’s opponents love to attack him as ‘untrustworthy’. This didn’t hurt him too much at the election because voters regard most politicians as untrustworthy. But if there was a clear and compelling example of him breaking his word to voters then that could change, and very quickly. The whole emphasis on promise-keeping is bad