Greece

Thursday

Sebastian Payne

The View from 22: Greece is burning

The upcoming Greek elections will push the nation into a confrontation with the European authorities, reports Faisal Islam, the economics editor of Channel 4 News, in his cover feature for the latest issue of The Spectator. And in this week’s episode of The View from 22 podcast he provides an insight into the changing attitudes he witnessed during his most recent visit to Athens last week: ‘Six months back, there was certainly a high stakes game of poker. But to me, it was pretty clear 6 months ago that the Greek people would do what was necessary to stay in the Euro. When you asked people on the streets, politicians,

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Cameron gets tough with the eurozone

Today’s PMQs will be remembered for one thing, Cameron saying that the eurozone had to ‘make up or it is looking at a potential break-up’. This is a distinct hardening of the government’s line on the single currency. Cameron’s comment was particularly striking coming just days after George Osborne said that ‘open speculation’ about whether or not Greece would leave the euro was ‘doing real damage across the whole European economy’. However those close to Cameron are not resiling from the remark. Instead, I understand that we can expect more from the Prime Minister on this subject when he makes a speech on the economy tomorrow. The break-up of the

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

The staring contest over Greece

Now that negotiations have broken down in Athens, and there will be another election, we face the prospect of an almighty staring contest. On one side, the Eurocracy, who will be urging Greek political parties — and particularly the left-wing coalition Syriza, which is ahead in the polls at the moment — to soften their anti-austerity stance. On the other, the Greek politicians, who might be hoping that the eurozone relents to some extent, and allows the cuts to be decelerated. The question is: who will blink first? As it stands, it’s difficult to come up with an answer. The leader of Syriza, Alexis Tsipras, is unlikely to blink over

Peter Hoskin

Greece is still the word

Remember when Europe’s leaders were basically saying, ‘Don’t worry, it’s all sorted’? Remember when they were putting out communiqués that started ‘The euro continues to rest on solid fundamentals’? No doubt they’ll do so again, but those past shows of certainty still look kinda funny this morning. Despite some last-minute concessionary efforts by Europe’s beancounters, it still appears that Greece’s main parties will be unable to form a coalition, and are heading for another election. And we know what that could mean: victory for the left-wing Syriza coalition, a severe swing against austerity, Greece’s exit from the euro, etc. etc. Were Greece to leave the currency, two questions would present

Friday

Jonathan Jones

Get set for more Greek elections

A second Greek election is looking more and more likely, with party leaders unable to form a coalition. I reported on Tuesday that Antonis Samaras — leader of the largest party, New Democracy — had admitted that he couldn’t put together a government and had passed on the mandate to Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza. Well, Tsipras also failed to build a coalition, as he couldn’t convince ND and centre-left Pasok to turn against their austerity plan, and so the baton has been passed to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos. His hope was to convince Democratic Left — which holds 19 parliamentary seats — to join his and Samaras’s parties in

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

The Greek tragedy goes on

‘The eurozone’s weakest link just got weaker.’ So says Tristan Cooper, sovereign debt analyst at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, on the results of Sunday’s Greek elections. The four parties who said they would continue the country’s austerity programme won just 36.4 per cent of the vote between them. The two of those that won parliamentary seats — centre-right New Democracy and centre-left Pasok — fell just short of a combined majority (they now hold 149 of the 300 seats). And now ND leader Antonis Samaras has admitted defeat in his efforts to form a coalition. The impasse has come about because of the anti-austerity parties’ refusal to join New Democracy in

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Can Merkel and Hollande meet in the middle?

This afternoon, it’s even clearer that the French and Greek elections are a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone. It’s not just the nervous market reaction to yesterday’s results, but also the way how the supranational debate has now changed. More so than ever, there are now two clear oppositional fronts. On one side, broadly speaking, are those who say that austerity is a prerequisite for growth. On the other, those who say that austerity must be relaxed for growth to arrive. It’s a situation dripping with black humour. When David Cameron kept Britain out of Europe’s fiscal pact a few months ago, it was portrayed as a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron faces a political storm

For the Cameroons, the political weather at the moment is about as appealing as the prospect of a Bank Holiday trip to the beach. The Tory party is having a very public debate about its future strategy. The Alternative Queen’s Speech being promoted by David Davis, John Redwood and Tim Montgomerie is a reminder of how vocal the leadership’s internal critics are prepared to be. The worry for Cameron has to be that there is this much sounding off just two years into the coalition. One wonders what it will like be a year from now. If this was not enough, Thursday and Friday promise to bring excruciating details of

Sunday

James Forsyth

What Hollande’s victory means

Tonight’s election results mark the next challenge to the euro. In France, the Socialist candidate François Hollande has won. Having campaigned on changes to the fiscal compact, Hollande will have to deliver something on this front. But Angela Merkel, with her own elections next year, will not want to agree to anything that appears to be a watering down of the pact. I doubt, though, that there’ll be that much market reaction to Hollande’s victory. City sources say that it has been priced in for while and that there is an expectation that Hollande will merely accept some window-dressing about growth being added to the agreement. But what could set

Wednesday

Clarissa Tan

May Day, May Day

There was a sense of urgency, even emergency, in many countries on May 1 this year. The goings-on in the UK were muted in comparison: France Presidential incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy staged a rally in front of the Eiffel Tower called ‘The Feast of Real Work’, to counter the traditional show of heft by the left. ‘Put down the red flag and serve France!’ he shouted to the unions. His campaign claims a turnout of 200,000. The left was irritated by Sarkozy’s hijack of their celebration, and his insinuation that they don’t understand what work is. The far right, led by a scornful Marine Le Pen fresh from rejecting an overture

Saturday

Charlotte Moore

Tragedy of Antigone

Sofka Zinovieff’s absorbing first novel has two narrative voices. Maud is the English widow of Nikitas, whose death in a mysterious accident leads her to contact Antigone, the mother-in-law she has never met. A former Communist freedom fighter, Antigone was forced to leave Greece for the Soviet Union following the Greek civil war. She gave birth to Nikitas, her only child, in prison, and handed him over to her family when he was three years old, severing all further contact. Maud was the third wife of the dominant, swaggering Nikitas. She remained passive throughout their marriage; now, liberated by his death, she starts asking the questions to which she ought

Friday

Alex Massie

Prisoner: Cell Block Athens

The Financial Times has a swell story today, demonstrating how Greece, already a ward of Brussels, is not likely to be trusted with even its own pocket-money, far less be allowed out without a chaperone. She is imprisoned: European creditor countries are demanding 38 specific changes in Greek tax, spending and wage policies by the end of this month and have laid out extra reforms that amount to micromanaging the country’s government for two years, according to documents obtained by the Financial Times. The reforms, spelt out in three separate memoranda of a combined 90 pages, are the price that Greece has agreed to pay to obtain a €130bn second

Thursday

David Owen

How to remain a nation state

Britain out of Brussels’ clutches by 2020? It can happen, says David Owen, in a piece for the magazine this week. It’s based on a speech to Peterhouse College, Cambridge. Here’s the full version: In all the controversy about the eurozone and Greece it is easy to ignore one simple fact: maintaining a core eurozone is creating an unstoppable momentum towards a United States of Europe. On 7 February 2012 the German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated very clearly her direction of travel. The eurozone crisis for her is to be the springboard to another Treaty to replace the Lisbon Treaty. She said ‘Step-by-step, European politics is merging with domestic politics.’

Tuesday

Clarissa Tan

The hurdles facing Greece

Greece’s problems are far from over. As Pete said this morning, the €130 billion bailout hardly means the country is out of the woods, or that it won’t still be ejected from the eurozone. Standard Chartered have released a handy guide to the many obstacles Greece faces. Here are some highlights: 1. The first hurdle is the private-sector debt swap due to take place March 8-11. This is when private creditors are supposed to swoop in and save the day. But, to be enticed to do so, Greek bonds will likely have to come with collective action clauses (CACs). Here’s where it gets technical — if these CACs are invoked,

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Darling: This is a Greek Versailles Treaty

Alistair Darling’s suggestion that income tax might be devolved (entirely!) to Scotland as part of a new post-referendum “settlement” was, understandably, the headline part of his Scotland on Sunday interview at the weekend. But his views on the Greek crisis were even more candid: His assessment of the Greek crisis is astonishingly frank. “The policy they [European leaders] are pursuing towards Greece is sheer lunacy. Nobody actually believes it will work privately, if you speak to people.” Even if everything worked, he notes that Greece would still have debts worth 120 per cent of its national income. “It will still leave the country so indebted and so crippled that it

Peter Hoskin

Greece saved at last? Nope…

Greece sorta defaulted last night. That’s what you need to remember when reading of Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’s ‘happiness’ at the €130 billion deal reached by eurozone finance ministers in the early hours. Sure, the country will now be able to pay off its creditors when various loans mature on 20 March. But the concurrent ‘voluntary’ haircut of 53.5 per cent for private bondholders will still be seen as a ‘restricted default’ by credit rating agencies. And it could feasibly get worse if those private bondholders decide not to play along and instead trigger a credit event, either manageable or messy. The question hovering over Greece is now, really,

Thursday

Faisal Islam

Bailout country | 16 February 2012

With the political wrangling over another Greek bailout continuing today, we thought CoffeeHousers might care to read (or re-read) Faisal Islam’s cover piece for The Spectator from four months ago: In a theatre in central Athens, over a thousand tax inspectors have gathered to shout crossly about the latest cuts to their pay and pensions. Eventually the argument, between the government-affiliated union leader and his members, spills out on to the street. The rank-and-file feel betrayed: they were persuaded to accept the first wave of pay cuts earlier this year, and now they are being asked to take even more. This does not feel to them as if they’re being

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The steady erosion of Greek democracy

The longer this Greek crisis goes on, the clearer the various agendas at play are becoming. As the Greek finance minister said earlier, the actions of the Eurozone’s northern faction — led by Germany — do suggest that it wants Greece out of the euro. As I’ve blogged previously, the Germans believe that with Monti in charge of Italy and a new centre-right government in Spain, the effects of Greece leaving the euro could be contained. But this is a big risk. After all, Lehman Brothers was allowed to go bust because it was believed that it was safe to do so. Certainly, the other eurozone countries are no longer

Monday

James Forsyth

Will Germany let Greece stay in the euro?

The German government is split on the biggest policy question of the day, according to the FT’s German edition. As Open Europe points out, the paper has a senior member of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag saying that finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble ‘supports the bankruptcy of Greece, Merkel wants to strictly avoid it… It goes back and forth, which is not very helpful.’ If true, this is a remarkable story. The British Foreign Office has been convinced since the beginning of the year that the Germans are keen to kick the Greeks out of the euro. Their conversations with the Germans have convinced them that Berlin believes that the

Friday

James Forsyth

Greece needs to quit the eurozone

The Greek people are being crucified on a cross of euros. Unemployment there is 21 per cent and rising fast and the austerity pact that its politicians have cobbled together to try and receive the next tranche of bailout cash will make things far worse. It is in the interests of the Greek people for the country to default and devalue but this, obviously, isn’t possible with Greece inside the eurozone. There are elections in Greece in April and it is to be hoped that one of the main parties there has the courage to break from the view that Greece must stay in the eurozone regardless of the cost.