George osborne

Scottish electoral geography is working to the SNP’s advantage

The dramatic rout of Scottish Labour continues. Polls suggest the SNP will take 55 out of 59 seats and of the 14 constituencies surveyed by Lord Ashcroft, only Glasgow North East is set to remain in Labour hands. Such political collapses are rare in UK politics – so what’s going on? Prior to 2011, the dividing line of Scottish politics was ‘to be or not to be’ Labour. This was a huge advantage to a party which, faced with split opposition, managed to win 69% of Scottish seats in 2010 with just 42% of the vote. The singular success of Alex Salmond was, first, to turn the SNP into the clearest and most credible opposition to

Osborne uses meeting with Greek finance minister to tell people to vote Tory

Even though he wasn’t quite prepared in the sartorial stakes for the visit of Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, George Osborne was ready to use the meeting between the two as another messaging moment. Following their discussions, the Chancellor has released this quote: ‘It’s clear that the standoff between Greece and the Eurozone is fast becoming the biggest risk to the global economy, and it’s a rising threat to our economy at home. In Europe as in Britain now is the time to choose competence over chaos. I urged the Greek finance minister to act responsibly, but it’s also important that the Eurozone has a better plan for jobs and

Labour fails to turn up to work for Treasury questions

The Commons is pretty quiet at the moment, draining of energy earlier and earlier in the week as MPs head out to their constituencies. So quiet, in fact, that Labour seems to have given up on using departmental question times as a forum for making government ministers uncomfortable or piling any political pressure on their opposite numbers. Yesterday’s Work and Pensions Questions were pretty lacklustre from an opposition attack point of view, but today’s Treasury questions were far worse. Tory MPs had turned up with piles of sickly sweet loyal questions to ask, most running along the lines of ‘is the Chancellor aware that he’s doing a fantastic job?’ The

UK politicians squabble over whose point the Greek elections prove

What are the lessons for British politicians from Syriza’s victory in the European elections? They’re certainly very keen to tell voters what lessons we should be drawing. Last night Nigel Farage focused on the failure of Europe, while David Cameron pointed to the importance of a strong – you guessed it – long term economic plan. This morning George Osborne underlined that point on the Today programme, saying: ‘I certainly understand that if you have unemployment at 25%, if your economy has shrunk by 20%, as the Greek economy has over recent years, you are looking for other answers, alternatives – because ultimately this is just the latest chapter in

Can George Osborne pass his own 13 tests?

Before George Osborne took to wearing hard hats and hi-vis jackets, he used to revel in his status as a political insider. In 2004, he wrote a piece for The Spectator setting out his model for forecasting the result of UK General Elections. Adapted from an academic model for predicting US Presidential Elections, it set out the ’13 keys to Number 10’ and argued that if a government held six of these it would win re-election. Here are Osborne’s 13 tests and how the government is doing on them: 1. Real per capita economic growth during the parliament equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two parliaments. Yes:

Podcast: Comedy meets politics and Osborne’s 13 tests for No.10

Why has politics turned into stand-up comedy? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Andrew Watts and Jesse Norman MP discuss this week’s Spectator cover feature on how these two worlds are colliding. What does the increased influence of comedy mean for our faith in politics? Aside from notably humorous politicians like Boris Johnson, how funny are MPs generally? And which member of the Labour shadow cabinet is deemed so funny he could be a professional stand-up? James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman also look at 13 tests to make it into Downing Street set by George Osborne — in 2004. Based on a Spectator piece he wrote earlier in his

James Forsyth

George Osborne’s 13 tests for an election victory (and how many he’s passed)

These days George Osborne is rarely seen in public without a hard hat and a hi-vis jacket. But he used to take pride in being recognised as a political insider through and through — a member of the guild of politicians, in his own phrase. He revelled in writing detailed articles about the lessons Westminster could learn from American politics. Several of these were written for The Spectator when Boris Johnson was the editor, which shows how far back the relationship between the Chancellor and the Mayor of London goes. (Osborne was at Oxford as the same time as Johnson’s younger brother Jo, now an MP and the head of

Why Boris and the Tory leadership are playing nicely

For most of this parliament, Downing Street has been thoroughly paranoid about Boris Johnson and his intentions. Any attempt by the Mayor to reach out to Tory MPs was met with deep suspicion. But now, the Tory leadership is actively pushing Boris to see Tory MPs — he was even invited to join the Whips for a Whips Supper at Boisdale last week. This is all evidence of the unspoken deal between Boris and the Tory leadership. He will be loyal and campaign hard for Cameron. In exchange, it will allow him to cultivate Tory MPs; helping him to rectify his biggest weakness ahead of any Tory leadership contest. These

Grey voters snap up Osborne’s pensioner bonds

Downing Street was a happy place after David Cameron and Barack Obama’s joint press conference yesterday. The US President was effusive in his praise for Cameron and his seeming endorsement of Britain’s economic strategy has delighted Number 10. But, I suspect, that in terms of actually influencing how people vote, the success of pensioner bonds might be more important. Osborne announced these pensioner bonds in the last Budget and they pay 2.8 per cent interest on a one year bond and 4 per cent on a 3 year bond. They offer the over 65s a far better deal than anything available on the high street. That 110,000 pensioners have purchased

‘Boring is good’ Cameron tells Tory MPs

David Cameron and George Osborne addressed Tory MPs this evening. The meeting was to update the Tory parliamentary party on the economy and its place in the party’s election strategy. Cameron told them that whatever the question was, the answer was that you can only have it with a strong economy and urged them to repeat this message as much as possible. He said, ‘Boring is good’. Addressing the assembled MPs, Osborne emphasised that the economy was the heart of this debate. He argued that this was first time since 1992 that Labour and the Tories had gone into an election with different spending planes. Most of the questions were

Isabel Hardman

Did Richard Curtis script today’s showdown between Osborne and Balls?

Even though they ended up walking through the lobbies together (though not hand in hand, skipping, sadly), Ed Balls and George Osborne still managed to have the sort of Commons showdown that would fit right in to the script of Bridget Jones. On and on their furious fighting went, over whether the long-term economic plan was working, over whether Labour had a long-term economic plan, over whether Britain would get its AAA credit rating back, over whether Balls would borrow more and whether Osborne was cutting the deficit slower than he’d intended. On and on and on. Both looked as though they were enjoying tearing chunks out of one another

Boffo new Tory election strategy: reinforce negative stereotypes

Following the success of the Tories’ last anti-UKIP strategy session, I’ve been leaked details of the latest election planning at CCHQ: […] I say, what’s the most damaging – and widely-held – perception about the Conservatives? Hmmm. That we’re the party for the rich? Most unfair, I think we can all agree. Right, moving on, what’s next? Let’s cut inheritance tax.  Hurrah!   It’s the least we can do for ordinary wealthy Britons…  If it weren’t for Ed Miliband this election would be over by now. Thank heavens for Ed, then.

How Osborne’s ‘deficit halved’ claim backfired  

So – how did it go? Yesterday, Tory HQ yesterday issued a poster with the misleading claim that the deficit had been ‘halved’ where in fact the reduction has been closer to a third (see below). In election campaigns, a ‘porkie*’ is introduced in stages. It debuts when dropped into a speech or article. If no one complains, it gets used again with a bit more boldness. And if there’s still no pushback, it’ll be used bigger – say, on a poster. As it was with Labour’s £35bn Tory cuts porkie, so it is with Osborne’s ‘halved the deficit’ porkie. But judging by today’s newspapers, the ‘poster’ stage of this

Osborne targets Vince Cable in opening election salvo

As the General Election limbers up, today saw the first day of proper campaigning with the Tories unveiling their first election poster and George Osborne hitting the road. The Chancellor did not have far to travel though, popping up to Twickenham, some 11 miles from the Treasury. His Twitter feed was in overdrive: It says something about relations at the top of the coalition when the Chancellor chooses to launch the election campaign in his own Business Secretary’s seat. Mr S wonders whether Osborne followed Commons protocol and alerted Vince Cable to the fact that he would be swinging by his constituency?

Why must Grant Shapps spoil a good story with a porkie?

An email arrives from Grant Shapps, chairman of the Tory Party, listing the things the Coalition has achieved in four years.  Here they are:- Our economy has grown faster than any other major advanced nation (True – since last year) There are more people in work than ever before (True – and amazing) We’ve continued to reduce the deficit – down by a half since 2010 (Porkie) A million more children are in schools ranked ‘good’ or ‘outstanding’, getting a great start in life (True) We’ve delivered 2 million apprenticeships since 2010, helping young people learn a trade (True-ish. This includes apprenticeships for over 25s, so it rather stretches the definition of ‘young’) Our

Why is George Osborne’s aide paid £95,000? Because he’s worth it

The Daily Mirror has today splashed on the fact that Rupert Harrison, chief economic adviser to the British government, has had a pay increase and is now on £95,000. Outrageous, says Kevin Maguire of the Mirror. I agree: he should be on far more. The British government is in the most almighty financial mess and the Chancellor of the Exchequer needs good advice. The national debt is soaring – by the time you finish reading this paragraph, it will have risen by more than £95,000. Money spent on someone who can help the government control this appalling situation would be money well spent. The Mirror says that Osborne has simply given his

The fatal contradiction at the heart of the Tory message: there is no money, except for people we like.

Next year’s general election looks like being the most gruesomely entertaining in years. Entertaining because no-one knows what is going to happen; gruesome because of the protagonists and the sorry misfortune that someone has to win it. All we can say for certain is that the Lib Dems will receive a doing. I still don’t think that person will be David Cameron. In part for reasons previously detailed here. The single biggest thing preventing a thumping Labour victory is Ed Miliband. This is, it is true, a sturdy peg upon which the Tories may hang their hopes but it still may not prove sturdy enough. Not least because, by the standards

Is David Cameron telling porkies on the deficit? His spokesman explains

As Fraser points out, David Cameron has gone from saying the deficit has been brought down by a third to claiming it has been halved, but with the often unspoken caveat that this is as a share of GDP. After the Prime Minister dropped this claim into his speech today without that very important small print, journalists grilled his official spokesman on whether Cameron was misleading voters at the afternoon lobby briefing. I’ve written up the transcript of our attempts to ask the same question many different ways. Journalist: When the Prime Minister said in his speech this afternoon the government had halved the deficit, did he qualify that in any

Why both the Tories and Labour now want a fight on the economy

Tomorrow, in a sign of how keen the Tories are to keep the political debate focused on it, both David Cameron and George Osborne will give speeches on the economy. Cameron will announce that he is bringing forward a scheme to offer first-time buyers under 40 a 20% discount on 100,000 new home. This scheme had originally been slated for the Tory manifesto but will now be up and running before May. Inside Number 10, they hope that this scheme will help demonstrate that there are tangible benefits for voters to sticking with the Tories and their long term economic plan.   Later on, Osborne will use an address in