George osborne

Wednesday

Tom Goodenough

Is Brexit to blame for the GDP slowdown?

Britain’s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of this year to 0.4 per cent, down from 0.6 per cent at the end of last year, according to ONS figures out today. What did George Osborne have to say about the slowdown? Predictably enough, he invoked the threat of Brexit and turned the news into a pitch for staying in the EU. The Chancellor said: ‘It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy. Investments and building are being delayed and another group of experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off

Monday

Tom Goodenough

Coffee House shots: What’s next for the Brexit campaign?

The EU referendum rumbles ever closer but after a bad week for the leave campaign following Barack Obama’s controversial intervention can those calling for Brexit fight back? And is Nicky Morgan staging a climbdown over Tory plans for academies? Spectator editor Fraser Nelson speaks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman about what this week holds. Speaking on today’s Coffee House podcast, Isabel says those calling for Brexit must now find a way of calming peoples’ fears about what life outside the EU would look like. She says: ‘I think it was definitely a much better week for remain than for leave because you had the most powerful man in the

Thursday

The Spectator

Cut the claptrap

So far the campaign for the EU referendum has resembled a contest as to which side can spin the most lurid and least plausible horror stories. On the one hand, the ‘in’ campaign claims that we’ll be £4,300 worse off if we leave; that budget airlines will stop serving Britain and that we will become more prone to terror attacks. Not to be outdone, the ‘out’ side warns that we will be crushed by a fresh avalanche of regulation and immigration, and more prone to terror attacks. The tone of the debate was summed up by Michael Gove this week when he accused the ‘in’ campaign of treating the public

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

How to save Conservatism

Iain Duncan Smith may have lost his job, but he has found a new whisky. It’s called Monkey Shoulder, and they became acquainted when he went to lie low in the Highlands after his resignation. When he went to buy a new bottle from Robertsons of Pitlochry he was told he’d have to wait a few days. ‘I told them not to worry, that I had more time on my hands. The man behind me said: “Yes, we know all about that — you were the talk of the town here for days.”’ It’s an example, he says, of how his resignation struck a far deeper chord than he imagined

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s heading for a hollow victory

[audioplayer src=”http://feeds.soundcloud.com/stream/260046943-the-spectator-podcast-obamas-eu-intervention-the-pms.mp3″ title=”Isabel Hardman, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss the PM’s hollow victory” startat=511] Listen [/audioplayer]‘Nothing except a battle lost can be half as melancholy as a battle won,’ wrote the Duke of Wellington after Waterloo. David Cameron may well feel the same about referendums on 24 June. The EU debate is already taking a toll on the Tory party and his premiership. While defeat would be disastrous for him, even victory will come at a heavy political cost. Victory is, for now, still the most likely outcome. Barring a dramatic worsening of the migrant crisis or another eurozone emergency, the uncertainty inherent in leaving the EU will probably mean

Wednesday

Martin Vander Weyer

Brexit forecasting is futile – and both sides should just admit it

The most striking thing about the Treasury’s forecast of the impact of Brexit is the relative modesty of its claim that by 2030, assuming a UK-EU trade deal akin to the one negotiated by Canada, ‘our GDP would be 6.2 per cent lower’ while ‘families would be £4,300 worse off’. Since those quotes come from the foreword signed by George Osborne, many voters will distrust the whole document — in which case they might prefer the even more modest ‘worst case’ of a 2.2 per cent GDP hit by 2030 predicted by non-partisan think-tank Open Europe alongside what it calls ‘a far more realistic’ range of possible outcomes ‘between a

Steerpike Steerpike

What ‘stinking cesspit of corporate corruption’? Steve Hilton refuses to say he backs Brexit

In More Human, Steve Hilton describes the EU as ‘a stinking cesspit of corporate corruption gussied up in the garb of idealistic internationalism’. So given his strong words on the issue, in theory it would seem that David Cameron’s former director of strategy — who is also one of the Prime Minister’s closest friends — has all the makings of a Brexiteer. However, speaking on Today to launch his new website Crowdpac — which aims to show which candidates match your priorities — Hilton appeared to get cold feet on the issue. When Sarah Montague asked him if he was backing Out, Hilton attempted to avoid the question several times: SH: Well Sarah,

Tuesday

Tom Goodenough

Today in audio: Gove’s case for Brexit

Michael Gove has been making his case for Brexit and doing his best to knock the stuffing out of the ‘remain’ campaign. He started the day on the Today programme, spelling out why he thought Britain was best off outside the EU. In his pitch to the nation, he said: ‘I want us to vote to leave the European Union before it’s too late, because that’s the safer choice for Britain. If we vote to stay, we’re not settling for a secure status quo, we’re voting to be hostages, locked in the back of the car, driven headlong towards deeper EU integration.’ The Justice Secretary then gave a speech later

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Government avoids defeat on banking bill

Today’s Treasury questions was a pretty tame affair. Labour produced a pretty mild set of questions on tax avoidance and solar energy, while Tory eurosceptics only caused trouble in the opening questions by complaining about the Treasury’s analysis of the economic consequences of Brexit – and at the very end when Sir Edward Leigh and Stewart Jackson challenged the Chancellor again on the matter. But there wasn’t much heat in either line of inquiry. What was more interesting was the way George Osborne managed to avoid a growing rebellion on the Bank of England and Financial Services Bill when he took a topical question from Tory MP Charles Walker. Walker

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

The danger of Michael Gove’s vague optimism

After yesterday’s furore over Treasury warnings about exactly what Brexit will cost British families, today it’s Michael Gove’s turn to hit back. The Justice Secretary is set to accuse the Government of ‘treating voters like children who can be frightened into obedience’. It’s extraordinary just how quickly the war of words seems to be intensifying, given that there are still more than nine weeks to go until the actual referendum. But is there a danger that all this noise is just going to switch off voters to the actual arguments being made? Michael Gove did his best this morning to make a clear-cut case for ditching the EU after being

Monday

Tom Goodenough

Today in audio: Osborne slammed over ‘absurd’ Brexit warning

George Osborne’s warning over what Brexit will cost the UK economy has dominated the headlines for much of the day. But how have the Treasury figures gone down in Westminster? Based on the number of Tory MPs queuing up to slam the Chancellor’s claims, it would seem not very well at all: Kwasi Kwarteng said he thought the figures were ‘absurd’. He attacked the Treasury as an organisation not qualified to make predictions about economic outcomes following its failure to predict the 2008 credit crunch: John Redwood also used the same word to describe his disdain for the warning that Brexit would cost British families £4,300. He said the predictions

Steerpike Steerpike

Leave.EU hit back at Osborne over Brexit comments: ‘if this is our economic team, we are in deep s–t’

George Osborne’s claim that the Treasury thinks Brexit would make you £4,300 worse off has gone down like a cup of cold sick with the Leave camp. While many Brexiteers have hit back in less than polite terms, it’s Leave.EU who win the award for ‘most blunt response’. In light of the claims, Arron Bank’s Brexit group have added a new picture to their Facebook group. The banner reads: ‘If this is our key economic team we are in deep s–t’. It seems that now Leave.EU are out of the race in terms of winning the official designation, they are able to speak freely.

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

The Coffee House podcast: George Osborne’s Brexit warning

George Osborne has warned today that Brexit will cost each household in the UK around £4,500. The Chancellor also said leaving the EU would make Britain ‘permanently poorer’. But is there any truth in Osborne’s claims? In this Spectator Coffee House podcast, Fraser Nelson joins Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth to discuss the figures and whether the numbers add up. Speaking on the podcast, Isabel Hardman says the Treasury report shows a change in argument by the Government in making the case for staying in the EU: ‘The really interesting thing about this is that George Osborne is doing this at all. He and his Tory colleagues at the start

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report

Sometimes, George Osborne’s dishonesty is simply breathtaking. Let’s set aside the way he has positioned himself over the years (if he believed that leaving the European Union ‘would be the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound’ he might have told us – and his constituents – earlier, rather than proceeding with the farce of renegotiation). But it’s his maths, today, which shames his office – and his use of this maths to make the entirely false suggestion that the Treasury thinks Brexit would make you £4,300 worse off. For anyone who cares about honesty in politics, and the abuse (and reporting) of statistics, this is an interesting case study. His chosen date is 2030. By then,

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

How ministers had to change tack in the EU referendum campaign

George Osborne harnesses the might of the Treasury machine today in the EU referendum campaign, publishing a weighty tome that tweaks 200 pages to warn of the consequences of Britain leaving the EU. He also warns of a ‘profound consequences for our economy, for the living standards of every family, and for Britain’s role in the world’. Those profound consequences include every family being £4,300 a year worse off as a result of Brexit, the Chancellor argues. John Redwood has already dismissed the document – which hasn’t yet been published – as ‘absurd’. But what it does tell us is that the government has accepted that the security argument alone

Saturday

Matthew Parris

The wisdom of pitchfork-waving crowds

In a way the headline to my fellow columnist Dominic Lawson’s Sunday Times commentary on 12 April said it all. ‘Join the pitchfork wavers on tax, Mr Cameron, and you end up skewered.’ The column had something of an 18th-century ring to it, conjuring in my mind’s eye an elegant London dinner party, with men-about-town in powdered wigs twitching back the heavy damask curtains to sneak worried glances at a riot outside: an unruly and enraged mob rampaging up the street. But Dominic had a powerful argument. It was, he suggested, noblemen like David Cameron and George Osborne who had unwittingly energised the rabble. Dominic had warned his readers of

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

The Spectator podcast: tax vs sex

To subscribe to The Spectator’s weekly podcast, for free, visit the iTunes store or follow us on SoundCloud. After the row over tax returns, are political scandals not what they used to be? Richard Littlejohn asks in his Spectator cover piece this week whether we’ve come a long way from the days of Christine Keeler and the Profumo Affair. Have we forgotten what a scandal is really about? Isabel Hardman is joined by Matthew Parris, author of Great Parliamentary Scandals, to discuss. As he puts it:- For quite a long time, sex was very delicious. I think we’re beginning to find tax and financial matters delicious too.’ Also on the Spectator podcast, Political Editor James

Thursday

Richard Littlejohn

Sex, lies and tax returns

Call this a scandal? A few years ago, it wouldn’t have made the cut. If any reporter had taken the David Cameron tax ‘scoop’ into the now-defunct News of the World, he would have been laughed out of the building. ‘OK, just run it by me again. The Prime Minister’s dad was a stockbroker, right? Daddy Cameron operated this fund in Panama, or somewhere, and Dave had a few shares in it. Then before Dave became Prime Minister, he sold the shares and made a profit of 19 grand, after paying full capital gains tax in Britain. Where’s the story?’ ‘But boss…’ ‘Don’t you “But boss” me. I’m trying to

Matthew Parris Matthew Parris

The wisdom of pitchfork-wielding crowds

In a way the headline to my fellow columnist Dominic Lawson’s Sunday Times commentary on 12 April said it all. ‘Join the pitchfork wavers on tax, Mr Cameron, and you end up skewered.’ The column had something of an 18th-century ring to it, conjuring in my mind’s eye an elegant London dinner party, with men-about-town in powdered wigs twitching back the heavy damask curtains to sneak worried glances at a riot outside: an unruly and enraged mob rampaging up the street. But Dominic had a powerful argument. It was, he suggested, noblemen like David Cameron and George Osborne who had unwittingly energised the rabble. Dominic had warned his readers of

Tuesday

Tom Goodenough

Could the IMF’s Brexit warning swing it for Remain?

The IMF has published one of the starkest warnings so far against Brexit from an organisation based outside of Britain. The latest set of figures from the International Monetary Fund predict that there will be a 0.3 percentage point dip in Britain’s growth forecast this year, as a result of the referendum. And the IMF warned that if Britain did vote to leave the EU, it could lead to ‘severe regional and global damage’. Both sides have used the statement to exchange in the latest round of tit-for-tat. George Osborne has said ‘for the first time, we’re seeing the direct impact on our economy of the risks of leaving the