France

Sarko’s renaissance

When David Cameron sits down for lunch with Nicolas Sarkozy today, he is bound to ask his host how the presidential election is going. In response, President Sarkozy is likely to break into one his wide-faced smiles, and begin moving about energetically, as he tends to do when he is excited. Forget the polls that put Francois Hollande ahead in a two-way race. It is too early to tell what people really think and, crucially, it won’t be a two-person race. It is a five-person, two-round election. And so far, Sarkozy is doing very well. Besides Sarkozy and Hollande, four other candidates could make a difference to the outcome: Marine

Tobin tactics

The biggest bone of contention between the UK and its EU allies these days is the ‘Tobin tax’, the idea of levying a tax on financial transactions. To the UK this is folly. Unless it is levied globally, a tax will force business to move elsewhere. And there is a greater chance of Silvio Berlusconi being elected ECB chief than the Tobin tax being levied globally.   Based on the experiences of Sweden in the 1990s, the tax will achieve none of what its proponents believe it will — and at a considerable cost to Britain’s and Europe’s economy, as companies look to list elsewhere to avoid it. As Ryan

How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?

Chatting to people in Brussels last week, I couldn’t help feeling that David Cameron’s EU problem is one of timing. The PM will probably be able to piece together a repatriation package that includes measures such as a withdrawal from the over-implemented Working Time Directive and a reduction in the EU budget. But none of this is likely to be enough for his party. Indeed, I suspect the budget won’t be finalised until two minutes to midnight during the Lithuanian EU Presidency in 2013. Add to this the Tobin Tax, where there seems to be little leeway for the British government. Barosso, Merkel and Sarkozy are determined to introduce it,

Chagrin d’amour

The horror of love: Nancy Mitford’s first fiancé was gay; her husband, Peter Rodd, was feckless, spendthrift and unsympathetic, and her great amour, Gaston Palewski, was endlessly unfaithful. She met him during the war in London and was in love with him for the rest of her life. Palewski was Charles de Gaulle’s right-hand man. He organised the French Resistance in London and commanded the Free French forces in East Africa. After the war, he was appointed De Gaulle’s chief of staff and he became known as the sinister éminence grise behind De Gaulle’s presidency. He and Nancy shared a love of France, beauty and jokes. He was never faithful

Britain: a European pariah?

The British government has worked hard to counteract any perception that it is being marginalised in Europe. Before the election, the Tory party went around to different capitals to assuage any fears that may have existed. The message: despite the Conservative departure from the EPP, and their anti-Lisbon Treaty remonstrations, they would not be a problem. They would be businesslike. Once in power, David Cameron unleashed his charm, showcased his polyglot Deputy Prime Minister and sent William Hague out to make everyone feel that they had a partner not a pariah in London. Further, the energetic and amiable David Lidington replaced the combative Mark Francois as Europe Minister. Links with

The new German Question

The Eurocrisis has put Germany in a twofold position that it abhors. First, it has forced Germany into a much closer relationship with France than is comfortable. For German policymakers, the great thing about the post-enlargement EU, of 27 countries, was that they and France could not rule supreme — they needed to bring other states on board. Germany prefers it this way, as it dilutes France’s dirigiste instincts. But recent events have reshaped Europe’s decision-making system, recreating the pre-1973 model in which Paris and Berlin reigned. The second thing Berlin abhors is to dictate things to others. The catastrophes of the 20th Century forced Germany to remake itself. It

James Forsyth

The Italian domino effect

For all the debate about Theresa May and border security, the big news has not been at Westminster today. Instead, people have been watching what is happening in Italy. For it is far from certain that Europe, or the Western world for that matter, has a bucket bigger enough to bail out a country that owes more than Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain do combined. As the New York Times reports, the European Central Bank is reluctant to step in and start buying Italian bonds because it fears that its previous bond buying efforts have simply enabled the Italians to avoid necessary reforms. It feels that only market pressure will

The worst form of censorship

A week ago, the offices of the French satirical paper Charlie Hebdo were burned down. This attack came after it advertised the founder of Islam, Muhammad, as ‘editor-in-chief’ of the new issue. The move was a light-hearted response to the very serious matter of the election of an Islamist party (the Ennahda party) as the leading party in Tunisia (a result which, incidentally, appears not to have greatly bothered most European media). As the staff of Charlie Hebdo contemplated the ruins of their magazine, a much grander and richer magazine, Time, ran one of those pieces which have become familiar whenever there is an Islamist assault against free speech. As

For Sarkozy, AAA stands for austerity

Nicolas Sarkozy has served up his second austerity budget in as many months, in a bid to retain France’s AAA credit rating. The president wants to cling on to those three precious letters at all costs. There are elections in six months’ time and he isn’t doing well in the polls. Austerité Part Deux consists of tax increases and spending cuts totalling €7 billion, the government announced today. There will be increases in VAT and levies on large corporations, as well as curbs on increases in welfare spending. This savings programme follows the €11 billion one announced in August. Sarko’s bid to get re-elected in 2012 is in disarray. According

James Forsyth

Cameron defends the IMF

David Cameron’s statement to the House of Commons on the Cannes summit was dominated by the question of increasing Britain’s dues to the IMF. Cameron stressed that his message to the Eurozone countries was “sort yourselves out and then we will help”. He also tried to offer reassurance that the IMF would not contribute to any eurozone-specific bailout fund. But after Ed Miliband’s response, the Prime Minister tried to counter-attack. He began by saying of the Labour leader’s speech, “I don’t know who writes this rubbish” which drew one of Ed Balls’ infamous calm down gestures. Cameron then offered an aggressive defence of the IMF, calling it an “organisation that

The paradoxes of renegotiation

David Rennie (aka The Economist’s Bagehot) has an excellent column in this week’s issue about the difficulties that Britain will face if she tries to repatriate powers from the EU. His main argument, having spoken to a number of senior German politicians and officials, is that if Britain holds up any treaty revisions in the hope of extracting concessions in return, then the other EU states will organise themselves without the UK. The Economist’s former Brussels correspondent also makes the key point that the 10 countries that are outside of the euro are not natural allies for the UK – some, like Denmark, do not want to join the euro,

Reuters: Papandreou to resign on Friday

Reuters is reporting tonight that the Greek Prime Minister has agreed to resign on Friday. The news agency says that at a meeting Cabinet colleagues told George Papandreou that he had to resign for the good of the Socialist party and he agreed. It quotes one source saying, “He agreed to step down. It was very civilised, with no acrimony.” Now, after Thursday’s experience, I suspect we’re all taking reports about what will, or will not, happen in Greece with a pinch of salt. But it does seem that the referendum is off, stymied in part by Merkel and Sarkozy, who have ridden roughshod over the idea of non-interference in

An assault on humour

On Tuesday night the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo was firebombed, presumably by Islamic terrorists, for naming the Prophet Mohammed its editor-in-chief. Nobody was hurt in the attack but the newspaper’s offices have been destroyed. They still managed to see the light side, running a commentary saying “After Greece, save Charlie”. The left-wing paper has never been as popular as its main rival Le Canard Enchaine but its outrageous cartoons and caricatures are a staple of French kiosk fronts. Naming Mohammed editor may be one of the more tame things the newspaper has done. But whether it is tasteless or not, the magazine’s right to publish, insult and ridicule is

Merkel and Sarkozy try to hold the euro together

Right about now, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are having George Papandreou for dinner. There have been all sorts of rumours today about what Sarkozy and Merkel will demand from him. Thankfully, they seem to have abandoned plans to tell him to cancel the referendum. But they still seem keen to dictate the question and the timing to him. How that will go down with the Greek demos remains to be seen. One thing is clear, though: the euro is now destroying the whole European project. The European Union’s claim to be a force for peace, stability and democracy in Europe is rapidly disappearing into the Athens smog. The wholesale

James Forsyth

The Greek land mines that Cameron must avoid

When the topic of Greece comes up at PMQs, David Cameron will need to avoid stepping on three land mines. The first task is not to say anything about what is going on in Athens, or Rome for that matter, that will exacerbate market anxieties. The second is a diplomatic challenge, to avoid anything that would sour Britain’s pitch ahead of the G20. The third, and perhaps most difficult one, is to keep his own backbenchers on side.   An ever growing number of Tories doubt that a 17 member Euro and fiscal union is in Britain’s, or Europe’s, interests. Already, some Tory backbenchers are talking about going to Greece,

The Euro masquerade

So much rot has been said about the Eurozone crisis that you do wonder whether Merkel, Sarkozy et al have come to believe their own spiel. This is an economic problem and it can’t be solved by political will. Greece is bust and several French, German and Dutch banks were stupid enough to lend €130 billion to the Greek government that they’re not going to get back. All the summits in the world cannot change this simple fact. These crisis talks are about bailouts for banks, not bail outs for Greeks. BNP Paribas is in for €37bn. Commerzbank of Germany is owed €15bn. And if Greece defaults, then insurance claims

Sarko’s dour challenger

One of France’s dullest politicians is now odds-on to take up residence in the Élysée Palace next year. François Hollande, the former leader of the French Socialists, has emerged on top in a competition to take on Nicolas Sarkozy for the presidency. Six contestants vied for the Socialist nomination, including Ségolène Royal, Hollande’s former partner who lost to Sarkozy in 2007. In the first round of the primaries yesterday, Hollande finished first ahead of current Socialist leader Martine Aubry. Here are the results based on 82 per cent of the votes cast:  The two will now face each other in a second round on Sunday, with Hollande the clear favourite.

Britain sues the ECB

As the EU debt drama continues unspooling like a perversely watchable soap opera (the FT’s Neil Hume describes it as ‘eurozone crisis porn’), an intriguing sub-plot has emerged: Britain is suing the European Central Bank. The Treasury is unhappy with an ECB move to limit the kind of euro-denominated products that can pass through UK clearing houses, suspecting it’s a bid to shift financial activity from London to Paris/Berlin. So it’s taking legal action, the first of its kind by an EU member state. This is not the first UK-EU disagreement that has surfaced in recent months, underlining the tensions between Britain and the Continent as financial centres across Europe

Merkel & Sarkozy have only words

It was something of a mystery. Emergency conference calls about the future of the Eurozone were being made yesterday, but there was no news of those discussions. As it turned out, this was for the best of all possible reasons: there was no news to report. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy announced no new measures to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis; rather, they merely declared “solidarity” with Greece and assured the markets that Greece would not be forced from the single currency. Their words seem to have assuaged the markets for the moment, but only the most brazen optimist would bet on the rally being long lived. Tests of confidence

The Euro-crisis heats up

Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and George Papandreou are in crisis talks about Greek debt. There are rumours that they are preparing an “orderly default” for Greece. But, officially, Merkel is still pressing ahead with implementing the existing Greek debt deals. This meeting also has a domestic context for Merkel. According to the FT, she is determined to stamp on the growing disquiet within her governing coalition over the Eurozone crisis and is pleading for calm resolve. It remains to be seen if she succeeds.  The danger of contagion within the Eurozone remains and concerns about the exposure of French banks persist, which is doubly worrying for Nicolas Sarkozy given the proximity