Europe

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

The IMF is losing patience with Greece

Much ado about Christine Lagarde’s interview with the Guardian this morning — and understandably so. After all, the head of the IMF is normally so restrained and delicate, yet here she lets that drop. When it comes to Greece, she says, ‘I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education… I think they need even more help than the people in Athens.’ And she also stresses that the Greek people should ‘help themselves collectively… By all paying their tax.’ Common

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Ukip’s new deal

Nigel Farage is relishing the chance to sow discord in Tory ranks Nigel Farage looks round with mild disgust at the antiseptic Westminster restaurant in which we’re meant to be having lunch. The leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party tilts his head back and sniffs the air theatrically, then whispers, ‘Why don’t we just go to the pub?’ We head off down the street. Farage is in a pinstripe suit with a Ukip golf umbrella under his arm. He puffs on a cigarette, his gait — half-jovial, half-military — straight out of an Ealing comedy. When we get to the pub, he greets his pint of bitter with an

Thursday

James Forsyth

Leveson continues, but it is a sideshow to the Euro drama

Fred Michel’s testimony this morning at the Leveson Inquiry was embarrassing but not devastating. The texts between him and Jeremy Hunt are cringe-worthy but my read is that the Culture Secretary is not in a weaker position than he was this morning. More important for Hunt’s survival prospect is the appearance of his former spad Adam Smith this afternoon. The question is, did Hunt not know of the extent of contact between Smith and Michel? Everything going on at Leveson, though, is a sideshow compared to the economic news and the storm brewing on the continent. On that note, it does seem odd that Nick Clegg is suggesting that the

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Cameron loses his rag

Ed Balls succeeded in getting David Cameron to lose his rag at PMQs today. The shadow Chancellor sledged the PM throughout the session, apparently asking him how many glasses of wine he had had today and the like. Towards the end of the session, Cameron snapped and called Balls ‘the muttering idiot sitting opposite me’. The House erupted. Ed Balls looked even more pleased with himself than usual while the Tory benches cheered the line. The exchange will put Cameron’s temper up for discussion which is Downing Street’s second least-favourite topic after the PM’s work-rate. But I suspect that there’ll be limited cut through to the public: politicians insulting each

Monday

Clarissa Tan

Bondholders are sheep — and they’re flocking out of the euro pen

Sweden’s Anders Borg (Fraser’s favourite finance minister) is wrong, says Citigroup. Bondholders and deposit holders are not like wolves, as Borg has made them out to be. They’re more like sheep — and currently they’re baa-a-a-cking out of the eurozone pretty quickly. We all know that money’s leaving the Continent — but how much and how rapidly? Citi’s credit strategist Matt King, basing his analysis on imbalances in TARGET2 (the euro area’s main payment settlement system) relative to eurozone countries’ current accounts, has come up with a few interesting observations. — Since mid-2011, Spain has suffered private-sector outflows of €100 billion, and Italy €160 billion (or a tenth of their

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Labour’s Disingenuous Flirtation with an EU Referendum

Apparently the Labour leadership is considering making a commitment to hold an In or Out referendum on British membership of the EU sometime in the next parliament. Guido says this would be “opportunistic, calculated and brilliant”. Well, he would say that wouldn’t he? He would, I think, quite like to see Britain leave the EU. Of course the Better Off Outers would welcome Labour’s conversion to an In or Out plebiscite. But since Labour remain, I believe, a Better Off In party it’s a mystery why they would wish or risk a referendum that can only – by dint of just asking the question – increase the likelihood that Britain might

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

All eyes on Hollande

Have you noticed the weird hold that François Hollande has over our politics? If you haven’t, then let me tell you: his name has been almost inescapable in Westminster over the past couple of weeks. Even in PMQs this week, David Cameron and Ed Miliband couldn’t resist of spot of Hollandery. Behind-the-scenes, too, there is much consideration being given to how the new French President should be treated. Political strategists recognise, as I’ve suggested before, that his election could be a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone and the European Union. Potentially, it’s the moment when the supranational consensuses of the past couple of years broke down, leading

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why reason doesn’t apply to the Eurozone

The Eurozone is a kind of lunacy if you look at it as an economic project. But this isn’t about economics, or rationality — it’s about emotion, as the leader in today’s Telegraph says. The Brits and Americans often fail to understand this fully because we judge a currency union in terms of its economic merits. But many European nations see it as part of another, wider, agenda. For the Spanish and Portuguese it’s about not going back to dictatorship. For Greece it’s about being Western rather than Eastern (and not being run by the military). As John O’Sullivan wrote for The Spectator recently, Eastern European states still — even

Thursday

James Forsyth

Cameron vents his euro frustration

David Cameron’s speech today is a sign of his frustration with the eurozone. Numbers 10 and 11 are increasingly irritated by how eurozone leaders are refusing to accept the logic of their project. What Downing Street is keen to avoid is another wasted year as Angela Merkel gears up for her reelection campaign. So, intriguingly, we see Britain throwing her weight behind Hollande’s support for project bonds. Cameron also uses the speech to again back eurobonds, which Merkel is firmly opposed to as she knows that this would mean Germany effectively standing behind everyone else’s debt. I can’t see a resolution to this crisis coming anytime soon, though. The economics

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Cameron gets tough with the eurozone

Today’s PMQs will be remembered for one thing, Cameron saying that the eurozone had to ‘make up or it is looking at a potential break-up’. This is a distinct hardening of the government’s line on the single currency. Cameron’s comment was particularly striking coming just days after George Osborne said that ‘open speculation’ about whether or not Greece would leave the euro was ‘doing real damage across the whole European economy’. However those close to Cameron are not resiling from the remark. Instead, I understand that we can expect more from the Prime Minister on this subject when he makes a speech on the economy tomorrow. The break-up of the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Miliband’s reshuffle isn’t necessarily to the left

Ed Miliband’s reshuffle turned out to be a rather small affair. The news out of it is that control over the policy review passes from Liam Byrne to Jon Cruddas, although Byrne continues to shadow Iain Duncan Smith. Given that Byrne is a Blairite who has been pushing for a tougher line on welfare, and that Cruddas rebelled to vote against the second reading of the welfare reform bill, some will see this as a shift to the left. But Cruddas is a more interesting thinker than that. The Blue Labour philosophy that he is an advocate of is, in many ways, a rather socially conservative view of the world.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Greece is still the word

Remember when Europe’s leaders were basically saying, ‘Don’t worry, it’s all sorted’? Remember when they were putting out communiqués that started ‘The euro continues to rest on solid fundamentals’? No doubt they’ll do so again, but those past shows of certainty still look kinda funny this morning. Despite some last-minute concessionary efforts by Europe’s beancounters, it still appears that Greece’s main parties will be unable to form a coalition, and are heading for another election. And we know what that could mean: victory for the left-wing Syriza coalition, a severe swing against austerity, Greece’s exit from the euro, etc. etc. Were Greece to leave the currency, two questions would present

Friday

Jonathan Jones

Get set for more Greek elections

A second Greek election is looking more and more likely, with party leaders unable to form a coalition. I reported on Tuesday that Antonis Samaras — leader of the largest party, New Democracy — had admitted that he couldn’t put together a government and had passed on the mandate to Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza. Well, Tsipras also failed to build a coalition, as he couldn’t convince ND and centre-left Pasok to turn against their austerity plan, and so the baton has been passed to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos. His hope was to convince Democratic Left — which holds 19 parliamentary seats — to join his and Samaras’s parties in

Thursday

Alex Massie

Tory Plans for an EU Referendum are Baffling and Incoherent

I wish the Conservative party’s attitude towards european policy made more sense. To be more specific, I wish the Prime Minister’s attitude made more sense. One can respect the views of, say, Bill Cash or Michael Heseltine without needing to agree with them. They have the merit of holding views that are easy to understand. This does not appear to be the case as far as David Cameron and his closest chums are concerned. And so, I’m afraid, James’s column in the magazine this week makes depressing reading. The Cameroons, he says, are shaping up for a referendum on the EU and this seems likely to be a manifesto commitment

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why the Tories are shaping up for an EU referendum

An EU referendum pledge in the next Tory manifesto is ‘basically, a certainty’ according to one of those most closely involved in the party’s electoral strategy for 2015. The current plan is for the manifesto to declare that a Conservative government would renegotiate Britain’s membership of the European Union and then put the new terms to the people in a referendum within 18 months of the general election. I understand that the Tory line would be that they would urge staying in the EU if Britain’s concerns could be met through this process. But if the rest of the European Union refused to play ball, they would be prepared to

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Have the Milibands got Hollande fever?

We’ve grown so used to regarding Ed and David Miliband as mutual nemeses that it’s strange to see them operating as a tag team today. The younger brother has delivered a fiery attack on the ‘unfairness and economic failure’ of the coalition, while the elder brother has an article in the Mirror arguing that the government is ‘Wrong about how to grow the economy in the modern world’. There’s also another article by the latter in the Times (£), just in case you haven’t had your fill of MiliCommentary. Much of what they say is unsurprising, but some things do stand out from their twin attacks nonetheless. The first is

Jonathan Jones

The Greek tragedy goes on

‘The eurozone’s weakest link just got weaker.’ So says Tristan Cooper, sovereign debt analyst at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, on the results of Sunday’s Greek elections. The four parties who said they would continue the country’s austerity programme won just 36.4 per cent of the vote between them. The two of those that won parliamentary seats — centre-right New Democracy and centre-left Pasok — fell just short of a combined majority (they now hold 149 of the 300 seats). And now ND leader Antonis Samaras has admitted defeat in his efforts to form a coalition. The impasse has come about because of the anti-austerity parties’ refusal to join New Democracy in

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Can Merkel and Hollande meet in the middle?

This afternoon, it’s even clearer that the French and Greek elections are a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone. It’s not just the nervous market reaction to yesterday’s results, but also the way how the supranational debate has now changed. More so than ever, there are now two clear oppositional fronts. On one side, broadly speaking, are those who say that austerity is a prerequisite for growth. On the other, those who say that austerity must be relaxed for growth to arrive. It’s a situation dripping with black humour. When David Cameron kept Britain out of Europe’s fiscal pact a few months ago, it was portrayed as a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron faces a political storm

For the Cameroons, the political weather at the moment is about as appealing as the prospect of a Bank Holiday trip to the beach. The Tory party is having a very public debate about its future strategy. The Alternative Queen’s Speech being promoted by David Davis, John Redwood and Tim Montgomerie is a reminder of how vocal the leadership’s internal critics are prepared to be. The worry for Cameron has to be that there is this much sounding off just two years into the coalition. One wonders what it will like be a year from now. If this was not enough, Thursday and Friday promise to bring excruciating details of

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Hollande, Cameron and the 21st arrondissement

While David Cameron has good cause to be glad of Sarkozy’s defeat, he has even better cause to be nervous about this trend of lefty nerds being elected. Much of the Cameroon’s re-election hopes are pinned on the idea that their boss will trounce the geeky Ed Miliband. Nowadays, the argument goes, these ex-special advisers who have no charisma and alarming leftist policies just don’t win modern elections. But, as Ben Brogan argued in the Telegraph last week, the French may well be about to prove that even dullards can get elected — if the incumbent fails to deliver the change he promised. At least Hollande says he’ll balance the