Europe

All eyes on Hollande

Have you noticed the weird hold that François Hollande has over our politics? If you haven’t, then let me tell you: his name has been almost inescapable in Westminster over the past couple of weeks. Even in PMQs this week, David Cameron and Ed Miliband couldn’t resist of spot of Hollandery. Behind-the-scenes, too, there is much consideration being given to how the new French President should be treated. Political strategists recognise, as I’ve suggested before, that his election could be a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone and the European Union. Potentially, it’s the moment when the supranational consensuses of the past couple of years broke down, leading

Fraser Nelson

Why reason doesn’t apply to the Eurozone

The Eurozone is a kind of lunacy if you look at it as an economic project. But this isn’t about economics, or rationality — it’s about emotion, as the leader in today’s Telegraph says. The Brits and Americans often fail to understand this fully because we judge a currency union in terms of its economic merits. But many European nations see it as part of another, wider, agenda. For the Spanish and Portuguese it’s about not going back to dictatorship. For Greece it’s about being Western rather than Eastern (and not being run by the military). As John O’Sullivan wrote for The Spectator recently, Eastern European states still — even

Cameron vents his euro frustration

David Cameron’s speech today is a sign of his frustration with the eurozone. Numbers 10 and 11 are increasingly irritated by how eurozone leaders are refusing to accept the logic of their project. What Downing Street is keen to avoid is another wasted year as Angela Merkel gears up for her reelection campaign. So, intriguingly, we see Britain throwing her weight behind Hollande’s support for project bonds. Cameron also uses the speech to again back eurobonds, which Merkel is firmly opposed to as she knows that this would mean Germany effectively standing behind everyone else’s debt. I can’t see a resolution to this crisis coming anytime soon, though. The economics

Cameron gets tough with the eurozone

Today’s PMQs will be remembered for one thing, Cameron saying that the eurozone had to ‘make up or it is looking at a potential break-up’. This is a distinct hardening of the government’s line on the single currency. Cameron’s comment was particularly striking coming just days after George Osborne said that ‘open speculation’ about whether or not Greece would leave the euro was ‘doing real damage across the whole European economy’. However those close to Cameron are not resiling from the remark. Instead, I understand that we can expect more from the Prime Minister on this subject when he makes a speech on the economy tomorrow. The break-up of the

James Forsyth

Miliband’s reshuffle isn’t necessarily to the left

Ed Miliband’s reshuffle turned out to be a rather small affair. The news out of it is that control over the policy review passes from Liam Byrne to Jon Cruddas, although Byrne continues to shadow Iain Duncan Smith. Given that Byrne is a Blairite who has been pushing for a tougher line on welfare, and that Cruddas rebelled to vote against the second reading of the welfare reform bill, some will see this as a shift to the left. But Cruddas is a more interesting thinker than that. The Blue Labour philosophy that he is an advocate of is, in many ways, a rather socially conservative view of the world.

Greece is still the word

Remember when Europe’s leaders were basically saying, ‘Don’t worry, it’s all sorted’? Remember when they were putting out communiqués that started ‘The euro continues to rest on solid fundamentals’? No doubt they’ll do so again, but those past shows of certainty still look kinda funny this morning. Despite some last-minute concessionary efforts by Europe’s beancounters, it still appears that Greece’s main parties will be unable to form a coalition, and are heading for another election. And we know what that could mean: victory for the left-wing Syriza coalition, a severe swing against austerity, Greece’s exit from the euro, etc. etc. Were Greece to leave the currency, two questions would present

Get set for more Greek elections

A second Greek election is looking more and more likely, with party leaders unable to form a coalition. I reported on Tuesday that Antonis Samaras — leader of the largest party, New Democracy — had admitted that he couldn’t put together a government and had passed on the mandate to Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza. Well, Tsipras also failed to build a coalition, as he couldn’t convince ND and centre-left Pasok to turn against their austerity plan, and so the baton has been passed to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos. His hope was to convince Democratic Left — which holds 19 parliamentary seats — to join his and Samaras’s parties in

Tory Plans for an EU Referendum are Baffling and Incoherent

I wish the Conservative party’s attitude towards european policy made more sense. To be more specific, I wish the Prime Minister’s attitude made more sense. One can respect the views of, say, Bill Cash or Michael Heseltine without needing to agree with them. They have the merit of holding views that are easy to understand. This does not appear to be the case as far as David Cameron and his closest chums are concerned. And so, I’m afraid, James’s column in the magazine this week makes depressing reading. The Cameroons, he says, are shaping up for a referendum on the EU and this seems likely to be a manifesto commitment

James Forsyth

Why the Tories are shaping up for an EU referendum

An EU referendum pledge in the next Tory manifesto is ‘basically, a certainty’ according to one of those most closely involved in the party’s electoral strategy for 2015. The current plan is for the manifesto to declare that a Conservative government would renegotiate Britain’s membership of the European Union and then put the new terms to the people in a referendum within 18 months of the general election. I understand that the Tory line would be that they would urge staying in the EU if Britain’s concerns could be met through this process. But if the rest of the European Union refused to play ball, they would be prepared to

Have the Milibands got Hollande fever?

We’ve grown so used to regarding Ed and David Miliband as mutual nemeses that it’s strange to see them operating as a tag team today. The younger brother has delivered a fiery attack on the ‘unfairness and economic failure’ of the coalition, while the elder brother has an article in the Mirror arguing that the government is ‘Wrong about how to grow the economy in the modern world’. There’s also another article by the latter in the Times (£), just in case you haven’t had your fill of MiliCommentary. Much of what they say is unsurprising, but some things do stand out from their twin attacks nonetheless. The first is

The Greek tragedy goes on

‘The eurozone’s weakest link just got weaker.’ So says Tristan Cooper, sovereign debt analyst at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, on the results of Sunday’s Greek elections. The four parties who said they would continue the country’s austerity programme won just 36.4 per cent of the vote between them. The two of those that won parliamentary seats — centre-right New Democracy and centre-left Pasok — fell just short of a combined majority (they now hold 149 of the 300 seats). And now ND leader Antonis Samaras has admitted defeat in his efforts to form a coalition. The impasse has come about because of the anti-austerity parties’ refusal to join New Democracy in

Can Merkel and Hollande meet in the middle?

This afternoon, it’s even clearer that the French and Greek elections are a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone. It’s not just the nervous market reaction to yesterday’s results, but also the way how the supranational debate has now changed. More so than ever, there are now two clear oppositional fronts. On one side, broadly speaking, are those who say that austerity is a prerequisite for growth. On the other, those who say that austerity must be relaxed for growth to arrive. It’s a situation dripping with black humour. When David Cameron kept Britain out of Europe’s fiscal pact a few months ago, it was portrayed as a

James Forsyth

Cameron faces a political storm

For the Cameroons, the political weather at the moment is about as appealing as the prospect of a Bank Holiday trip to the beach. The Tory party is having a very public debate about its future strategy. The Alternative Queen’s Speech being promoted by David Davis, John Redwood and Tim Montgomerie is a reminder of how vocal the leadership’s internal critics are prepared to be. The worry for Cameron has to be that there is this much sounding off just two years into the coalition. One wonders what it will like be a year from now. If this was not enough, Thursday and Friday promise to bring excruciating details of

Fraser Nelson

Hollande, Cameron and the 21st arrondissement

While David Cameron has good cause to be glad of Sarkozy’s defeat, he has even better cause to be nervous about this trend of lefty nerds being elected. Much of the Cameroon’s re-election hopes are pinned on the idea that their boss will trounce the geeky Ed Miliband. Nowadays, the argument goes, these ex-special advisers who have no charisma and alarming leftist policies just don’t win modern elections. But, as Ben Brogan argued in the Telegraph last week, the French may well be about to prove that even dullards can get elected — if the incumbent fails to deliver the change he promised. At least Hollande says he’ll balance the

What Hollande’s victory means

Tonight’s election results mark the next challenge to the euro. In France, the Socialist candidate François Hollande has won. Having campaigned on changes to the fiscal compact, Hollande will have to deliver something on this front. But Angela Merkel, with her own elections next year, will not want to agree to anything that appears to be a watering down of the pact. I doubt, though, that there’ll be that much market reaction to Hollande’s victory. City sources say that it has been priced in for while and that there is an expectation that Hollande will merely accept some window-dressing about growth being added to the agreement. But what could set

Fears heighten as the Eurocrisis rumbles on

For all the coverage of hacking, pasty tax and the like, the continuing crisis in the eurozone remains the most significant political story. Until it is resolved, it is hard to see how the UK returns to robust economic growth. I suspect that the market reaction to a Hollande victory will be limited as it is already pretty much priced in. Those expecting a degringolade will be disappointed. However, if Hollande does actually try and implement some of his more extreme ideas, the markets could take fright. What is far more worrying than France is Spain. There’s a growing sense of inevitability that the Spanish banks will need a bailout

Cameron’s Euro line

One line jumped out at me in David Cameron’s Marr interview this morning. When Andrew Marr asked him if he thought we were halfway through the Euro crisis or nearing the end of it, Cameron replied: ‘I don’t think we’re anywhere near half way through it.’ Cameron clearly does not believe that any resolution to the crisis is in sight. Given that, as long as the Eurozone crisis rumbles on it is hard to see how the British economy returns to robust growth, this is immensely significant. It does, though, make me wonder if the government’s approach to the crisis should now change. If the Eurozone isn’t going to accept,

The Eurocrisis persists

Holland and Hollande; they’re the non-identical twins that are causing palpitations across Europe today. Holland, because the country’s Prime Minister yesterday resigned after failing to agree a package of cuts for his country’s budget. Hollande, because he’s the socialist candidate set to win the presidential election in France, probably eroding that country’s commitment to fiscal consolidation in the process. The markets quivered in fear at this morning’s headlines — and what they mean for the eurozone — even if they have, in some parts, slightly recovered since. It’s all another reminder that the Eurocrisis just isn’t going away — neither for countries such as France and the Netherlands, nor for

Hollande edges Sarko in French first round

The run-off in the French presidential election will be between the candidates of the two main parties, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande. In a boost to the Socialist’s chances, Hollande topped the poll — but he was only a point and a half ahead of the sitting president. But, in some ways, the story of the night will be the best ever result for the Front Nationale, in terms of share of the vote. Marine Le Pen appears to have scored 20 percent, 3 percent more than her father Jean-Marie Le Pen did when he came second in the first round in 2002. The result is another sign of the

The EU against new booze

You don’t expect to find so much politics in a booze mag, but there’s an intriguing story in a recent edition of the Drinks Magazine. Relations between Britain and Argentina have been very fraught of late, so the good folk at Chapel Down, the internationally renowned vineyard in Kent, decided to promote peace and goodwill by importing Malbec grapes from Argentina to make a special English wine, called ‘An English Salute‘, to mark World Malbec Day, which took place on Tuesday. The vineyard planned to sell the wine in Gaucho, the chain of Argentine-themed steakhouses.  However, the European Commission blocked this neat marketing initiative on the grounds that grapes imported from outside the