Europe

The Greeks have voted ‘no’. Now, the real crisis will begin

In a landslide vote, the Greeks have said ‘no’ to the latest EU bailout deal – and, perhaps, to the Euro itself. Alexis Tsipras will stay as Prime Minister, and treat the result as a mandate to negotiate a better deal. But that’s not how the Germans see it: their economic affairs minister, Sigmar Gabriel, has just told the Tagesspiegel newspaper that the Greek ‘no’ has just ‘torn down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise’ and furthermore: ‘With the rejection of the rules of the eurozone … negotiations about a programme worth billions are barely conceivable.’ So events may now well spiral out of anyone’s control. Here’s what we’re facing… 1)

Ed West

Globalists v localists: the new reality of 21st century politics

Tonight it looks like the Oxi’s have it, and Greece’s fraught relationship with the Franks has reached a new phase, with possible Grexit coming; that’s assuming the exit polls are correct and that this whole torturous episode doesn’t continue. Whether Grexit takes place or not, though, the whole episode has fundamentally damaged the European Union by undermining the very idea it was built on – solidarity. If you ever get Irish people on the subject of the Great Famine, the essential point they always make is that had the potato blight hit Yorkshire, no one would have starved because London would have come to its aid. Yorkshire is the example

Charles Moore

The IMF doesn’t need to be run by a European

How much longer should the IMF be run by a European? The job of the fund is to assist any member country which is in trouble, not to advance the dream of European integration. So far, since it all began after the war, the IMF’s managing directors have been Europeans, most commonly French. The current one, Christine Lagarde, is a French former politician, as was her predecessor, the socialist sex-maniac Dominique Strauss-Kahn. In her opinion, the needs of the EU trump everything, but that is a political view, not a financial one. It must be annoying for the scores of poorer, non-European IMF members — e.g. the Philippines, Mexico, Jamaica — to

Which way will Greece vote?

This time tomorrow, we’ll have had the first projections from the Greek referendum. We will have an idea as to whether the country has said Oxi or Nai. At the moment, the polls make the referendum too close to call. Whatever the result, there’ll be no quick deal between Greece and its creditors. But if the Greeks vote Oxi, then the country could be forced out of the Euro by the ECB cutting off assistance to its banks. If that were to happen, then the Eurozone would have to move to integrate very quickly to prevent Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France being pushed towards the Euro exit the next

Charles Moore

Does the EU want the Greeks to vote for Golden Dawn?

If Greece does vote Yes, and Mr Tsipras has to go, who is left to run the country? The voters have tried all the main parties, only to find them broken by the demands of the eurozone. The only category left is the extreme right, so there would be a sort of desperate logic in electing the repulsive Golden Dawn party. Otherwise, there really doesn’t seem any point in having any more votes at all. Greek citizens — or rather subjects — might as well invite the satraps of the troika formally to take up the reins of power, sit back, and see how they manage. If they do not like

Is Cameron ready for his European opportunity?

Could Greek voters back austerity measures to keep their country in the eurozone this weekend? Today’s papers cover a poll by GPO which put ‘Yes’ on 47.1 per cent and No on 43.2 per cent. This result would see resignations at the top of Syriza, but effectively no Grexit. If Alexis Tsipras’ gamble of saying he’ll resign if the country does indeed vote ‘Yes’ to the cuts demanded by Greece’s creditors pays off, and voters plump for Syriza’s preferred option of ‘No’, then David Cameron will find himself with what James describes in this week’s Spectator as a ‘glorious opportunity to craft a looser form of EU membership’ because the

Watching the next war

Late last month, on a windswept plain near the Polish town of Zagan, the defence ministers of Poland, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands joined the Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, to watch Nato’s response to Russia’s incursions into eastern Europe. The dramatic culmination of a week of military manoeuvres, Exercise Noble Jump was a spectacular show of force by Nato’s new VJTF brigade. More than 2,000 troops from nine countries fought a fierce mock-battle against irregular militia, with live ammunition. Huddled in the attendant press pack, struggling to insert my earplugs, this awesome demonstration felt like confirmation — if any were needed — that Europe stands on the brink of a

Greek referendum going ahead as Tsipras again urges No vote

After much speculation that the Greek referendum was about to be cancelled, Alexis Tsipras has just appeared on Greek television to confirm that it is going ahead and to urge people to vote No. He said that those saying a No vote would mean Greece leaving the Euro were telling lies. He argued instead, that a No would strengthen his negotiating hand and allow him to achieve a ‘social deal’ which would be easier on the poor and pensioners. Everything now turns on the result of the referendum. If it is a Yes vote, the Syriza-led government will almost certainly resign and one can see how the country’s creditors could

Greeks v Franks – why culture still matters

During the period of the crusades Greeks would refer to western Europeans by the generic term ‘Frank’, derived from the name of the leading barbarian tribe of the west. The word still lives on as a name for white people in Urdu and Hindi – Firangi – as well as Thai and Vietnamese, for whom US soldiers were called Farang (or ‘black Farang’ for African-American troops). According to Norman Stone’s history of Turkey, the word for syphilis in Turkish is likewise derived from Frank (it was also called ‘the French disease’ in 15th century Italy). ‘Frank’ is a useful term that really needs to be brought back to illustrate the

Lloyd Evans

Common sense suggests Britain’s economy doesn’t depend on the EU

They say you have to be nearly 60 to have voted in the 1975 referendum. I voted in that referendum. I was 12. My mum had forgotten her glasses. We were a Labour household and as we left the polling station she said, ‘You did vote “in”, like Harold Wilson suggested?’ ‘No,’ I replied, ‘I’m with Tony Benn. I want “Out”’. Benn wasn’t right about much but he asked three good questions about the Common Market. Who appointed these people? What are the limits to their power? How do we get rid of them? Satisfactory answers are still unforthcoming. And his clear-headed approach may persuade others of the need to quit.

We haven’t had a pan-European war for 70 years. Why is that?

The EU referendum makes me suspect that the grownups don’t know what they’re doing. I can see how we got to this point but it seems absurd that something so fundamental should be up – not just  for debate but possibly even – for reversal. It is doubly absurd because David Cameron has said that he will be campaigning – as you would expect of a conservative – for the status quo. So why are you doing this? I mouth at the television, wishing heartily that he would fight his internal party battles on his own time. Bewilderment is, it seems to me, one of the main forces behind this referendum. Some

The Eurozone’s new strategy: hope for a Yes vote in Greece

The question that will be on the ballot paper in Greece on Sunday is rather wordy, so European leaders have been trying to simplify it for Greek voters today. Their message has been vote Yes to the bailout deal to stay in the Euro and No for a return to the Drachma. Their logic is that however much Greeks may dislike imposed austerity, they don’t actually want to leave the Euro. It has become clear today that the Eurozone’s strategy now is not to try and put together a last minute agreement but to instead rely on a Yes vote on Sunday. This would lead to the fall of the

If Greece leaves the Euro, Cameron should start the British renegotiation all over again

Tonight, it is still not clear how the Greek situation will be resolved. The European Central Bank–which is desperate to avoid being dragged into the politics of this situation–has chosen a middle way on its emergency assistance to Greek banks. It has neither ended it—which would have crashed the whole Greek banking system—nor extended it, which would have enabled the banks to stay open and eased the pressure on the Syriza-led government. Greek banks will definitely be closed tomorrow and probably until the referendum on Sunday. The next big question is what happens on Tuesday when the bailout programme ends and a payment comes due to the IMF which Athens

Greece: ‘The crisis has commenced’

Alexis Tsipras’ gamble in calling a referendum on the bailout deal has failed in two respects. First, it has not prompted Greece’s creditors to offer the country a better deal. Second, they are not going to extend the bailout until the referendum—so, it will end on Tuesday. This means that without capital controls, the Greek banks will not be able to open on Monday morning. As the Irish Finance Minister put it, ‘The crisis has commenced’. We are now waiting for two things. First, will the Greek parliament and president approve the referendum. Second, will the European Central Bank continue to prop up the Greek banks. But, at the moment,

Greece to hold referendum on bailout deal

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has just announced that there will be a referendum on the proposed bailout deal next Sunday, July 5th. He will ask for the current bailout to be continued until then to allow the Greek people to have their say. The signs from Athens are that Tsipras will campaign for a No vote unless the creditors offer Greece a radically better deal at tomorrow’s meeting. This move from Tsipras will infuriate Greece’s creditors.  It will also, almost certainly lead to the introduction of capital controls for Greek banks until the referendum. If the creditors don’t blink tomorrow and improve the terms they are offering Athens,

Most Tories want to remain in the EU. Here’s why

It is unfashionable to quote polls these days but one recent finding went unremarked even though it is remarkable. It showed that only 15 per cent of members of the Conservative Party want to pull out of the EU. From the noise surrounding the debates on the Referendum Bill you might believe that this is a surprise. In reality the vast majority of Conservatives at all levels of the Party want Britain to stay in a reformed EU. We believe it is now time for the silent Conservative majority to get behind David Cameron and start to make the case for the UK’s continued membership of the EU and the

A British policeman shouldn’t take orders from a radical Islamist preacher

Each year Anjem Choudary earns more in benefits than a soldier does starting off in our armed forces. This is a fact I never tire of pointing out – especially to Anjem’s face whenever we have the misfortune to meet. The follow-on point, which I think also worth continuing to make, is that there is something suicidal about a society that rewards its enemies better than it does its defenders. Choudary and his family rake in around £25,000 each year  and – as you can see from this newly-released video above  – we taxpayers now get even more for our money than we had previously thought.  For now we do not only pay

Greece may soon face a humanitarian crisis of its own

Normally, the phrase ‘continent in crisis’ is hyperbole. But it seems appropriate today as we contemplate the situation Europe, and more specifically the EU, finds itself in. In the next few days, Greece could default, triggering its exit from the single currency and financial disruption across the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Rome is on the verge of unilaterally issuing Mediterranean migrants travel documents enabling them to travel anywhere in the Schengen area because—as Nicholas Farrell reports in the magazine this week—Italy simply cannot cope with many more arrivals. Those involved in the British government’s preparations for a Greek exit put the chances of it at 50:50. If Greece did leave, which would

The invasion of Italy

Let us suppose that along the coast of Normandy up to one million non-EU migrants are waiting to be packed like sardines in small unseaworthy vessels and to cross the English Channel. Let us suppose that first the Royal Navy, then the navies of a dozen other EU countries, start to search for all such vessels in the Channel right up to the French coast, out into the North Sea and the Atlantic even, and then ferry all the passengers on board to Dover, Folkestone, Hastings, Eastbourne and Brighton in a surreal modern-day never-ending version of the Dunkirk evacuation of 1940. Would the British government agree to take them all?

How far will Merkel go on Greece?

The Greek crisis has been going on for so long now, it is hard to imagine it actually coming to a conclusion. But next week’s meeting of European Finance Ministers is one of the last chances for a deal to be struck. However, there is no sign of an agreement yet. The Financial Times today picks up on German press reports about the German government preparing for Greece leaving the Euro. The Germans have long been convinced that any contagion from Greece leaving the single currency could be contained privately many in Whitehall think that Berlin is far too complacent about this. Now, it appears that Merkel is turning her