Eu

Saturday

James Forsyth

Which way will Greece vote?

This time tomorrow, we’ll have had the first projections from the Greek referendum. We will have an idea as to whether the country has said Oxi or Nai. At the moment, the polls make the referendum too close to call. Whatever the result, there’ll be no quick deal between Greece and its creditors. But if the Greeks vote Oxi, then the country could be forced out of the Euro by the ECB cutting off assistance to its banks. If that were to happen, then the Eurozone would have to move to integrate very quickly to prevent Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France being pushed towards the Euro exit the next

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Does the EU want the Greeks to vote for Golden Dawn?

If Greece does vote Yes, and Mr Tsipras has to go, who is left to run the country? The voters have tried all the main parties, only to find them broken by the demands of the eurozone. The only category left is the extreme right, so there would be a sort of desperate logic in electing the repulsive Golden Dawn party. Otherwise, there really doesn’t seem any point in having any more votes at all. Greek citizens — or rather subjects — might as well invite the satraps of the troika formally to take up the reins of power, sit back, and see how they manage. If they do not like

Friday

Ross Clark

Free movement isn’t an inalienable right. Just look at Calais

The right to free movement of people and goods across the EU is, as we keep being told when the government proposes to trim benefits for Romanians, a fundamental and inalienable principle of the Treaty of Rome. Why then does the European Court of Justice show no interest in the French ferry workers whose strike has led to 30 miles of tailbacks either side of the Channel? There could scarcely be a more brazen example of free movement being thwarted, and yet there seems to be no sign of ferry workers, their union or the French government being taken to court, ordered to let the lorries through or subjected to any

Thursday

Peter Jones

Solon vs Jean-Claude Juncker

The combination of terror and outrage with which Brussels has greeted Greek Prime Minister Tsipras’s referendum tells us everything we ever needed to know about the EU, i.e. stuff the people — what have they to do with us? The farmer-hero Dikaiopolis in Aristophanes’ comedy Acharnians (425 BC) felt much as modern Greeks must do when the Athenian Assembly refused to do anything about the war against Sparta. All the executives cared about was getting the best seats, he complains: ‘For peace, they don’t give a toss. Oh Athens, Athens, what are you coming to?… I’m longing for peace. All I want is to get back to my little village — ah,

The Spectator

Barometer | 2 July 2015

Bank job Should we buy shares in companies which print banknotes in expectation of one getting to print millions of drachma notes? — In May, according to the ECB, there were a total of 17.6bn euro notes in circulation. Given that Greece accounts for approximately 2.5% of the GDP of the eurozone, 441m of these were Greek, and might need replacing with drachma notes in the event the country leaves the euro. — However, there is already a good business in printing replacement euro notes. In May, 2.76bn notes were taken out of circulation and 2.88bn new ones were put into circulation. — Therefore, if Greece were to leave the

Harry Mount

Greece’s crisis turns to tragedy

 Athens On Sunday night, a protest in favour of staying in the euro gathered in Syntagma Square, in front of the Greek parliament building. They were quickly confronted by a group of anti-EU protestors. What could have been an ugly stand-off was avoided by an unseasonal downpour. The 28ºC heat plunged to 19ºC and the young protestors — organised by social media — fled home, as did the riot police soon afterwards. Things are in a terrible way here, but not quite terrible enough for a Greek to hang about in the rain. As one Athenian journalist told me on the roof of the Amalia Hotel, while we watched the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron must not let this crisis go to waste

Few European leaders have been luckier than David Cameron. First he was sent Ed Miliband. Now events in Greece may be about to present him with a solution to the thorniest problem of his second term: how to negotiate a new form of EU membership for Britain that the Tory party can rally behind come the referendum. The Prime Minister’s critics delight in claiming that his European problem is of his own making. Two years ago, he promised a referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017. But he couldn’t have survived without making such a pledge. It was his way of stopping his party arguing about Europe; without

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Greek referendum going ahead as Tsipras again urges No vote

After much speculation that the Greek referendum was about to be cancelled, Alexis Tsipras has just appeared on Greek television to confirm that it is going ahead and to urge people to vote No. He said that those saying a No vote would mean Greece leaving the Euro were telling lies. He argued instead, that a No would strengthen his negotiating hand and allow him to achieve a ‘social deal’ which would be easier on the poor and pensioners. Everything now turns on the result of the referendum. If it is a Yes vote, the Syriza-led government will almost certainly resign and one can see how the country’s creditors could

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Why is the FT ordering Greece to do what Germany wants?

‘The Greek people,’ the Financial Times leading article said on Monday, ‘would be well advised to listen closely to the words of Ms Merkel. The plebiscite will be a vote for the euro or the drachma, no less.’ It is interesting how menacing powerful ‘moderate’ institutions can become when popular feeling challenges them. In the eurozone theology to which the FT subscribes, its statement above cannot be true. It is not possible (see last week’s Notes) for a member state to leave the euro, any more than it is for Wales to renounce sterling. Eurozone membership, once achieved, is a condition of EU membership. So the Greeks cannot vote to

Matthew Lynn

The sooner Greece leaves the euro, the better

Ten years ago, the Greek minister Yainnos Papantoniou came to London to give a talk at the London School of Economic on the country’s first four years as a member of the euro. A skilled, pro European technocrat, Papantoniou had, more than anyone else, steered his country through dogged German resistance into the single currency. Papantoniou boasted that a history of weak growth and chaotic government had been swept aside, and that Greece was now the equal of Germany and France. What lay ahead, he argued was ‘a new dynamic phase for the Greek economy, based on knowledge and modern structures’. A ‘bolstering of national self-confidence’ would be the natural

Tuesday

Ed West

Greeks v Franks – why culture still matters

During the period of the crusades Greeks would refer to western Europeans by the generic term ‘Frank’, derived from the name of the leading barbarian tribe of the west. The word still lives on as a name for white people in Urdu and Hindi – Firangi – as well as Thai and Vietnamese, for whom US soldiers were called Farang (or ‘black Farang’ for African-American troops). According to Norman Stone’s history of Turkey, the word for syphilis in Turkish is likewise derived from Frank (it was also called ‘the French disease’ in 15th century Italy). ‘Frank’ is a useful term that really needs to be brought back to illustrate the

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Common sense suggests Britain’s economy doesn’t depend on the EU

They say you have to be nearly 60 to have voted in the 1975 referendum. I voted in that referendum. I was 12. My mum had forgotten her glasses. We were a Labour household and as we left the polling station she said, ‘You did vote “in”, like Harold Wilson suggested?’ ‘No,’ I replied, ‘I’m with Tony Benn. I want “Out”’. Benn wasn’t right about much but he asked three good questions about the Common Market. Who appointed these people? What are the limits to their power? How do we get rid of them? Satisfactory answers are still unforthcoming. And his clear-headed approach may persuade others of the need to quit.

Emma Hartley

We haven’t had a pan-European war for 70 years. Why is that?

The EU referendum makes me suspect that the grownups don’t know what they’re doing. I can see how we got to this point but it seems absurd that something so fundamental should be up – not just  for debate but possibly even – for reversal. It is doubly absurd because David Cameron has said that he will be campaigning – as you would expect of a conservative – for the status quo. So why are you doing this? I mouth at the television, wishing heartily that he would fight his internal party battles on his own time. Bewilderment is, it seems to me, one of the main forces behind this referendum. Some

Monday

James Forsyth

The Eurozone’s new strategy: hope for a Yes vote in Greece

The question that will be on the ballot paper in Greece on Sunday is rather wordy, so European leaders have been trying to simplify it for Greek voters today. Their message has been vote Yes to the bailout deal to stay in the Euro and No for a return to the Drachma. Their logic is that however much Greeks may dislike imposed austerity, they don’t actually want to leave the Euro. It has become clear today that the Eurozone’s strategy now is not to try and put together a last minute agreement but to instead rely on a Yes vote on Sunday. This would lead to the fall of the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Jean-Claude Juncker raises the stakes for the Greeks

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, has suggested that if Greece votes No in the referendum on whether to accept the terms of a bailout, it will be voting not just to leave the Euro but the EU too. Juncker has clearly decided that the best thing to do is to put the pressure on for a Yes vote in the referendum on Sunday. A Yes vote would force the Syriza-led government to resign. At that point, a deal could—potentially—be done with the new Greek government. However, it is worth noting that any new deal would have to get through various Northern European parliaments which could be tricky. Meanwhile, Alexis

Sunday

James Forsyth

If Greece leaves the Euro, Cameron should start the British renegotiation all over again

Tonight, it is still not clear how the Greek situation will be resolved. The European Central Bank–which is desperate to avoid being dragged into the politics of this situation–has chosen a middle way on its emergency assistance to Greek banks. It has neither ended it—which would have crashed the whole Greek banking system—nor extended it, which would have enabled the banks to stay open and eased the pressure on the Syriza-led government. Greek banks will definitely be closed tomorrow and probably until the referendum on Sunday. The next big question is what happens on Tuesday when the bailout programme ends and a payment comes due to the IMF which Athens

Saturday

James Forsyth

Greece: ‘The crisis has commenced’

Alexis Tsipras’ gamble in calling a referendum on the bailout deal has failed in two respects. First, it has not prompted Greece’s creditors to offer the country a better deal. Second, they are not going to extend the bailout until the referendum—so, it will end on Tuesday. This means that without capital controls, the Greek banks will not be able to open on Monday morning. As the Irish Finance Minister put it, ‘The crisis has commenced’. We are now waiting for two things. First, will the Greek parliament and president approve the referendum. Second, will the European Central Bank continue to prop up the Greek banks. But, at the moment,

Friday

James Forsyth

Greece to hold referendum on bailout deal

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has just announced that there will be a referendum on the proposed bailout deal next Sunday, July 5th. He will ask for the current bailout to be continued until then to allow the Greek people to have their say. The signs from Athens are that Tsipras will campaign for a No vote unless the creditors offer Greece a radically better deal at tomorrow’s meeting. This move from Tsipras will infuriate Greece’s creditors.  It will also, almost certainly lead to the introduction of capital controls for Greek banks until the referendum. If the creditors don’t blink tomorrow and improve the terms they are offering Athens,

Thursday

The Spectator

Letters | 25 June 2015

Free trade with Africa Sir: Nicholas Farrell suggests that a naval blockade is the only solution to Italy’s immigration crisis (‘The invasion of Italy’, 20 June). Examining the causes of the situation might identify other measures. Since the European Union effectively closed its borders to trade with Africa to protect European farmers from lower food prices, the agricultural economies of most African countries have been in decline. Of course there is another reason for Africa’s decline. About 60 years ago, the Europeans found it convenient to convince themselves that in Africa self-government was better than good government. It followed that aid would be a convenient substitute for the risks or

Peter Jones

Hesiod on Grexit anxiety

Why do Greeks want to keep the euro, or remain in the European Union? The combative, creative, competitive, mercantile classical Greeks throve on independence. The farmer-poet Hesiod (c. 700 BC) makes the point about competition by calling it Eris, ‘strife’, which he characterises as painful but also helpful. On the one hand, he said, it creates conflict and discord; on the other, ‘It gets the shiftless working. For when someone whose work does not come up to scratch sees someone else, a rich man, busy himself ploughing and planting and managing his household well, then there is competition between neighbours in the race to riches. This Eris is good for