Eu

The Greek Crisis in a Single Chart

There are some – especially on the American left – who give the impression of thinking that if only the European Central Bank behaved differently or if only Angela Merkel could be persuaded to do the right thing then somehow there might be a way out of the eurozone crisis. But even allowing for the fact that politics and economics are generally concerned with making the best of less than optimal situations sometimes there really is no way out. Here’s a handy chart that basically explains it all: No-one is “solving” this crisis because there isn’t a solution to it. Since every choice leads to bad places it is sensible,

James Forsyth

Europe bubbles to the surface in PMQs

A particularly fractious PMQs today. Ed Miliband started by asking questions about Liam Fox which, frankly, seemed rather out of date given that Fox has already resigned. Cameron swatted them away fairly easy, mocking Miliband with the line “if you’re going to jump on a bandwagon make sure it is still moving”. But when Miliband came back on the economy, Cameron was far less sure footed. The Labour leader had one of those great PMQs facts: despite the government having issued 22 press releases about the regional growth fund in the last 16 months only two firms have received any money for it. A visibly irritated Cameron then said that

A counterweight to France-German power

It was only a matter of time before the Franco-German drive to reshape Europe’s “economic governance” met with a counter-proposal. In international politics, a powerful state or group of states tends to lead others to band together in or order to provide some form of balance. This is now happening in Europe. David Owen and David Marsh are proposing the creation of a “Non-Eurogroup” (NEG), corralling the 10 EU countries outside the Eurozone into a group. Writing for the Financial Times, they argue that such an NEG would bring many benefits. They say: “Setting up the NEG would establish rights and responsibilities for non-eurozone members, ending the long-held European position

Getting over excited

As Peter Oborne observed on Newsnight recently, there is a tendency in the Eurozone to think its problems are political, rather than an economic crisis that cannot be wished away. For example, the Bundestag’s much vaunted approval of an expanded EFSF has done little to alleviate Europe’s weakness. Here’s why: 1) We all knew the vote would pass: the opposition support made sure of that. The key point was that Angela Merkel got an absolute majority. It was a close call, but it always seemed likely that she would gain enough support from the flailing junior coalition party, the FDP, which, given its collapsing poll results, was unlikely to threaten the stability of the coalition for

James Forsyth

Cameron’s perfect Europe row

The European Commission has just given David Cameron the perfect chance to stand up to Brussels. Its attempt to make Britain pay benefits in full to any citizen of an EU country who pitches up here is, frankly, barking and if successful would totally undermine public support for the free movement of people, as Fraser said last night. But, politically, this row provides Cameron with a real opportunity. By taking the commission on over it, he can reassure his party that he’s still a Eurosceptic while avoiding the more fundamental issues of the euro and Britain’s whole relationship with the EU. Indeed, I’d be very surprised if we didn’t see ministers repeatedly

Tories pray for no more from Europe

Tory strategists had hoped to keep Europe off the agenda at this year’s party conference, but they seem to have failed already. The European Commission’s threat about welfare claims has forced IDS into action. Ben Brogan reports that the work and pensions secretary was nothing short of visceral in his contempt for the “land grab”, which will apparently cost £2.5 billion a year. But, IDS’s rage is quiet compared to John Redwood’s, who asks “Why won’t he [William Hague] get on with renegotiating the UK position [in Europe]?” Next is the EU’s Agency Workers Directive, which comes into force tomorrow. Businesses complain that this will significantly increase their costs and have

The Polish Invasion Was A Good Thing

It seems typical of Labour’s reaction to being removed from office after 13 frustrating years in power that it should have decided to disown one of its braver, better, bolder decisions: the decision to permit unfettered movement from Poland and other EU-accession countries to the United Kingdom. It takes a special kind of malignancy to disown your most benign moment in power. But this is where Labour are; trapped in equal measure by their search for populism and their weakness for authoritarianism. First it was Ed Balls, then it was Yvette Cooper and then Ed Miliband himself. Each apologised for decisions that did their party – and their country –

New blow to European integration

A spectacular row has broken out in Europe. Bulgaria and Romania have been denied access to the Schengen area after Finland and the Netherlands vetoed their inclusion. The Romanians pre-empted the decision over the weekend by banning Dutch flower imports on the grounds that they harboured dangerous bacteria. This decision won’t disrupt the continuity of European life because Bulgaria and Romania already have access to the single market; so, in this case, the Schengen rules would mainly pertain to customs checks rather than freedom of movement. But this is of enormous symbolic importance because it rejects Jean Monnet’s mission of ever closer union. The Dutch and Finnish governments are under

Time to leave the EU?

Today’s Lib Dem attack on their coalition partners comes from Chris Huhne, who rails against a “Tea Party tendency” in Conservatives sceptical of the European Union. His premise is that those who are hostile to the EU are a minority. It’s worth digging a little deeper here, because the opposite is true. If you believe that Britain has benefited from EU membership, you’re in a smallish minority – 35 per cent to be precise. Huhne seems genuinely unaware of the depth of feeling out there. CoffeeHousers may be familiar with opinion polls commissioned by eurosceptic groups. But – as we say in the leading article of this week’s Spectator – the

Bumper turnout for Tory Euro-sceptic meeting

I hear that 124 Tory MPs attended the inaugural meeting of the Tory ginger group pushing for renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with Europe. Those present included at least one minister — Theresa Villiers, several PPS and a few whips who were keeping a beady eye on proceeding. George Eustice, the convener of the group, told the room that he wanted the group to work with the government rather than against it and that he wanted front-benchers to feel comfortable attending the meetings. The group intends to put out a series of proposals as to which powers should be repatriated before issuing a white paper on how the government should renegotiate

Hague says he’s been held back on Europe by the Lib Dems

William Hague’s comments in an interview with The Times that the Liberal Democrats are restraining the Tories on Europe will increase the grumbling among Tory backbenchers about the power of the junior coalition partner. Hague tells the paper that ‘A point of difference in our manifesto was the aim to repatriate some powers. Clearly that’s something I’m in favour of, but that’s the area we had to compromise on in return for other compromises.’ (In many ways this is a statement of the obvious. But in the current uncertain European environment, his remarks are news). In an attempt to reassure euro-sceptics, Foreign Secretary stresses that the Conservative party ‘would like

Merkel’s domestic difficulties threaten the Eurozone

As August draws to a close, Europe is bracing itself for a series of September sovereign debt crises. Events in Germany at the moment have the potential to make these crises into events that could break the back of the Eurozone. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports, Chancellor Merkel might not have the votes to push the European Financial Stability Facility through the German parliament. Merkel is currently under attack from all angles in Germany. Helmut Kohl has criticised her foreign policy, while the German president has implied that she should not have let the European Central Bank buy up so many poor quality bonds. It is now possible to see her coalition

This autumn, Europe could become the most important issue in British politics again

Europe will be one of the political issues of the autumn. The government expects another round of sovereign debt crises in the autumn and these will add urgency to the Merkel Sarkozy plan for ever closer fiscal union between the eurozone members. Nearly every Tory MP and minister I have spoken to is instinctively sceptical of the Franco-German strategy. But Cameron, Osborne and Hague believe that because the Eurozone members won’t accept the break-up of the currency union, Britain has to back further fiscal integration in the hope that it will make the euro work. (Cynically, one might add that their position also makes life easier within the coalition given

Osborne warns Eurozone that decisive action must be taken now

The UK government is becoming increasingly concerned about the situation in the eurozone and the fact that there does not appear to be the political will to address it. One government source complained to me earlier today that “unless they get their act together the eurozone are in danger of fiddling while Rome burns.” Tonight, in a major departure from Britain’s previous softly-softly approach to the issue, George Osborne is issuing a statement calling on the eurozone countries to take “decisive action” to “prevent market uncertainty doing real damage to the world economy.” The Chancellor calls on eurozone countries to: “…now set out in detail how they plan to expand

Europe, the times they are a-changin’

Before writing my column for The Spectator this week I asked one of the most clued-up Eurosceptics on the centre right what opt-outs Britain should push for in any negotiation over an EU treaty change. His answer, to my surprise, was “forget that, we should just leave”. This answer took me aback because this person had been the embodiment of the view that the European Union could be reformed from within. But people are dropping this view at a rapid rate for reasons that Matthew Parris explained with his typical eloquence in The Times (£) yesterday. I wrote in The Spectator this week that two Cabinet ministers now favour leaving

Will Britain leave the EU in 2025?

Britain is going to stay in the EU for the next ten years at least. Of that I’m sure. But after that, when David Cameron’s retired, William Hague has taken to writing books, George Osborne’s had his chance and the 2010 intake run the party, the Tories are going to be more openly hostile to the EU. Labour will too; it has a larger reservoir of pro-EU sentiment among its ranks, but one that is shallower than it was. Focusing on the Tories, it is worth noting that nearly all of the names being bandied about as future Tory leaders have a visceral dislike of the EU. By and large

The gulf between public opinion and Westminster opinion on Europe

It’s Europe Day today, where the flag of the EU will be flown by 26 of its 27 member states. David Cameron is refusing to join in* — and rightly. Why celebrate an institution to which the British public is hostile? I’ve always found it strange that Euroscepticism is caricatured as a fringe, minority position when the polling evidence is so overwhelming. The European Commission anxiously monitors this, conducting identical polling in all member states — the largest poll in the world. The results are never publicised in Britain because they make clear the depth of public hostility. We have dug a few out, from the Eurobarometer data archives, and

Much ado about Brussels, bailouts and budgets

The news that the European Union has decreed that its Budget be increased by 4.9 percent in 2012 ties a knot in the stomach, as I ponder an Easter weekend spent in Margate rather than Majorca due to austerity. As Tim Montgomerie notes, the government is taking this opportunity to assert its euroscepticism. Stern communiqués are being worded; stark warnings are being issued. Behind the scenes, the government has joined with the Dutch, its closest ally on the Continent, to confront the avaricious Commission. Patrick Wintour reports that the French will also oppose the proposed Budget, and the Austrians, Danes, Swedes, Finns and Belgians are expected to lend their weight

Allied military intervention in Libya has commenced

Reports are coming in that French jets have fired the first shots in the UN-supported intervention in Libya. The coming conflict will determine, in the short term, whether the Gaddafi regime is toppled and, in the longer term, whether the international community rediscovers its appetite for intervention which had been so diminished by the controversies over Iraq and the difficulties of the Afghan mission. That there is intervention at all in Libya is down in no small part to David Cameron and William Hague. Hague played a key role in ensuring that Arab countries were prepared to commit to putting planes in the air in this operation, something that was

Cameron’s persistent leadership on Libya was key to tonight’s resolution

David Cameron deserves huge credit for tonight’s Security Council vote. He has kept plugging away for a no fly zone and has succeeded in moving the Obama administration’s position. Cameron’s decision to have Britain table with the French and the Lebanese a Security Council resolution without the support of the Americans or even having talked to the president was a bold move that has turned out to be a game changer. The Prime Minister has proved himself an effective and courageous actor on the world stage. The question now is how quickly and effectively military force can be deployed and how Gaddafi is to be ousted. It, obviously, would have