Eu referendum

Next time it comes to redesigning the PPE course at Oxford, I suggest a module beginning with a quotation from George Osborne. It’s something he said to the Treasury Select Committee in May, back when he was still Chancellor: ‘If you look at the sheer weight of opinion, it is overwhelmingly the case that people who look at the case for leaving the EU come to the conclusion it would make the country poorer, and it would make the individuals in the country poorer, too.’ There might be advantages to Brexit, he said, ‘but let’s not pretend we’d be economically better off’. In other words: it wasn’t just George Osborne’s

The best thing to say about the UK kicking off preliminary trade talks with Australia is that they’re a start. In that they show Britain is looking to do business around the world, they’re a welcome signal in the wake of the vote for Brexit. Given that some have taken the referendum to be a sign of Britain slamming the door shut, any talk which counters this false narrative is refreshing. Yet there’s also a danger of overhyping the significance of such a deal. And it’s worth reminding ourselves that signing such an agreement won’t be the answer for all of Britain’s troubles. The statistics make it clear that a trade deal with Australia would

It has become one of those journalistic clichés to talk about ‘firing the starting gun’ in politics. There has been some debate among the hacks at Holyrood as to whether or not Nicola Sturgeon has already ‘fired the starting gun’ on the next Scottish independence referendum campaign. So, to do justice to that cliché (and to mangle it completely), I suggest something like this: today the First Minister reached for the key to the cabinet holding the starting gun, which would launch a second Scottish independence campaign. She hasn’t yet opened the cabinet but she has the key in her hand, should she decide to place it in the lock and turn. What

David Davis has just finished his first statement to the Commons on the process for the UK exiting the European Union. Davis’s initial statement stuck closely to what the government has said already; the coordinated Labour backbench heckle of ‘waffle, waffle’ had some truth to it. But it was striking that Davis said he hoped the UK’s security relationship with the EU would be as close or closer post-Brexit; in Whitehall, Britain’s intelligence and military capabilities are regarded as one of our key assets in the negotiation. But in answer to the questions that followed, Davis–a naturally frank politician—gave a clearer sense of what he means by Brexit. In answer

Theresa May is on her way to her first G20 summit. But she has still sat down for the traditional start of term interview with Andrew Marr. Reading the transcript of it, it looks like a classic Theresa May interview: with very little given away. She avoided answering Marr’s questions on whether she would like to see more grammar schools and refused to say whether she shared her chief of staff Nick Timothy’s view that Chinese involvement in the Hinkley point nuclear project would be security risk. On Brexit, May said little new about the deal she would like to strike–confirming the sense that, as one Minister told me, the

Day by day, the vote for Brexit on 23 June is coming more and more to resemble Black Wednesday, the day when sterling plummeted out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Then, as now, the event was initially treated by many as a national calamity – before it steadily became apparent just how a big a fillip it had provided the economy. This morning’s good news is the Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which surged to 53.3 in August. This more than makes up for the plunge to 48.2 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in activity, and anything below 50 contraction. The month-on-month rise was the largest in

Theresa May welcomed the Cabinet to Chequers with this address, just released by Number 10: ‘Thank you very much for coming together today. It’s our first opportunity to meet since the summer recess, but also the first opportunity for us to meet since the fantastic success of the GB Team at the Olympics – absolutely great. And also the Paralympics will be starting very soon, so we wish our Paralympic athletes all the very best and success there as well. But obviously over the summer – over the last few weeks – quite a lot of work has been done. We’re going to be having an opportunity today to discuss

The parliamentary move against democracy is gathering strength. The notion that parliament might vote down the results of the referendum is being backed by some serious, intelligent politicians (and Labour’s Chris Bryant). My old boss Patience Wheatcroft is leading the attempt in the Lords, hoping to stall it until such times as another referendum could be called. Even David Lammy, who I also admire, is leading similar attempts in the Commons involving a petition (Rod Liddle, in response, has started a petition to have Lammy removed as MP. It now has 6,300 signatures). Bryant explains (in a tweet) that he’s out to defend parliamentary sovereignty. ‘Our membership was by act

In the runup to the referendum, we heard repeated warnings that, whatever the outcome of the actual vote, the damage to the UK economy had been done. The Bank of England, whose governor has been accused of becoming something of a fellow traveller for Project Fear, warned in its Monetary Policy Committee meeting in March that: ‘There appears to be increased uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming referendum on UK membership of the European Union’. In April, the BoE was at it again, downgrading second-quarter growth from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Warnings such as these risk of being self-fulfilling: if you talk about uncertainty, it’s hardly surprising that investors feel uncertain, creating a

The good news for the Government is that net migration is down. The bad news? It’s down by so little (a fall of 9,000 to a total of 327,000) that you won’t hear anyone crowing about today’s figures. That the ‘tens of thousands’ target made by the Government still hasn’t been met is no surprise at all. And we can expect to see a continuation of the semantic shift from that Tory ‘promise‘ down to a ‘pledge‘. So apart from telling us that, as far as net migration is concerned, it’s business as usual, what do today’s figures show us? For one, they make it clear that solving this issue won’t

Jeremy Corbyn’s embarrassing train row is a gilt-edged opportunity for his rival to try and make up ground in the party’s leadership contest. Instead, Owen Smith is more intent on alienating Labour voters by setting out how he wants to block Brexit. It’s a foolish move on Smith’s part. So why has he done it? It seems Smith’s only motivation is to try and snatch away a core group of Corbyn supporters who want Britain to stay in the EU (after all, Corbyn said hours after the referendum that Article 50 should be triggered straight away). But the dim possibility of attempting to gain traction amongst sulking Remainers means Smith