Economy

How to get from Plan A to Plan A+

Terrible events in Norway and the ongoing phone hacking scandal have kept the economy out of the media in the last couple of weeks. Coverage of the latest bail-out of Greece last week was comparatively muted, especially considering how important it is for the eurozone and, by implication, the UK. However, if the soothsayers are correct, it is unlikely that the release of the Q2 GDP figures tomorrow will fail to hit the headlines. When the Office for Budget Responsibility published their forecast for the UK economy in April they had forecast growth of 1.7 per cent this year, but signs are that tomorrow’s Q2 data will raise stark questions

Fraser Nelson

What you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s growth figures

By now, George Osborne will have seen tomorrow’s GDP figures and I suspect will be having a mid-afternoon whisky. Ed Balls will be warming up for his demands for a Plan B. “Austerity isn’t working,” he’ll say — and will doubtless tour TV studios with his usual bunch of dodgy assumptions which he hopes broadcasters won’t challenge. Here, as a counterweight, are a few facts and figures about austerity, how harsh it is, etc. — and the case for a Plan A+. 1. Where are the “deep, harsh” cuts? The Q2 GDP data will complete the economic picture for the first year of George Osborne’s time in the Treasury. But

Osborne’s summer of pain starts here

It has mostly been a weekend of terrible and grisly news, especially with the details emerging from Norway about Anders Behring Breivik and his murderous brand of politics. But there was also, behind it all, a slight rebalancing of the British political debate. After weeks of grandmaster-like focus on the phone hacking scandal, our politicians have started talking about the economy again. With the GDP growth figures for the second quarter of this year due out tomorrow, they’re all trying to get their spin in early. There were a number of intriguing interventions, not least George Osborne’s hint that he will cut “very high tax rates” in his Pre-Budget Report

Long-term problems

It is fashionable to say that the nation is divided: the North and South, the haves and have nots, the politically engaged and the apathetic. Educational attainment has been added to that list, following yesterday’s apocalyptic report from the University and College Union (UCU), which found that there are more people without qualifications in one impoverished part of the East Midlands than there are in ten other affluent constituencies across the country. The report concludes that those from the poorest backgrounds have been “short-changed for generations”. What’s so striking about this report is that it follows hot on the heels of an OECD investigation into grade inflation under the previous

Getting a grip of the crisis

“I’m very worried, this building [the Treasury] is very worried and this government is very worried,” said George Osborne of the unfolding crisis in the Eurozone. In an interview with the FT, the chancellor goes on to say that he is in constant contact with his continental counterparts and urges them once again to “get a grip”. Eurozone leaders are meeting today to discuss further loans to Greece. Three options are being considered: first, an extension of the European Financial Stability Facility; second, private sector creditors re-lend money for a longer period and at a lower rate; third, impose a tax on banks to secure revenue for Greece. Despite a

The (non-)effect of Hackgate

No Labour bounce, no drop in approval for Cameron or his government. That’s the impact that two weeks of front pages dominated by the phone hacking scandal on the opinion polls:  Ed Miliband’s numbers have improved, which will come as some relief to the Labour leader who suffered a terrible month of polls in June. But despite a 13 point jump in the last fortnight, his net approval rating has only recovered to where it was six weeks ago, and that was hardly a rosy position. Certainly, Ed’s response to the scandal seems to have reflected well on him. 49 per cent of the public think he’s handled the affair

Euro crisis enters a new phase

It was a problem that would be fixed with a snap of the Commissioners’ manicured fingers, but now fresh euro-storms are louring in the near distance. As predicted over the weekend, the markets reacted to the European Banking Authority’s deeply flawed stress tests with fevered concern and a clear note of contempt. The FTSE shed 90 points yesterday, with banks among the day’s biggest losers. The performance in Frankfurt and Paris was equally baleful, as investors fled for safe commodity stocks. As Fraser has noted, Allister Heath argues that the Eurozone crisis is responsible for the booming price of gold. The markets have recovered slightly this morning; but that does

Shaking our faith in money

Addictive though the hacking inquiry is, the average Brit is probably more worried about the slow decimation of his spending power at a time when salaries are flat. Against this backdrop, the price of gold today has broken $1,600 an ounce.  With inflation and the Fed’s printing presses whirring, faith in paper money is taking a knock – and this is reflected in the price of gold.  Fears of a debt crisis in Europe add to it too, with a disaster scenario all too easy to imagine. Over the last decade, the West blew a bubble fuelled by low interest rates and debt-financed consumption. The bubble burst. Solution: even lower

The OBR warns of a fiscal storm

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s 126-page Fiscal Sustainability Report really oughtn’t make for electrifying reading. But it does. What Robert Chote and his gang of number-crunchers have done is to gaze into our fiscal abyss, and summon up forecasts so that the abyss can gaze back into us. I mean, look at the graph above. On the OBR’s account, our country’s debt burden could well rise from around 70 per cent of GDP now to over 100 per cent in 50 years time. It is a perturbing trajectory, to say the least. But, before we go any further, we should slap all kinds of health warnings across this. Long-term forecasting

Osborne warns Eurozone that decisive action must be taken now

The UK government is becoming increasingly concerned about the situation in the eurozone and the fact that there does not appear to be the political will to address it. One government source complained to me earlier today that “unless they get their act together the eurozone are in danger of fiddling while Rome burns.” Tonight, in a major departure from Britain’s previous softly-softly approach to the issue, George Osborne is issuing a statement calling on the eurozone countries to take “decisive action” to “prevent market uncertainty doing real damage to the world economy.” The Chancellor calls on eurozone countries to: “…now set out in detail how they plan to expand

The euro’s death rattle

The end might be nigh for the euro. The currency has hit an all-time low against the Swiss franc, as individual eurozone government bond yields vaulted higher due to mounting concerns about the region’s debt crisis. To spell out what this means: in Spain, 12 billion euros of interest payments will accrue for every 100 point bond rise in Germany. That is more than Spain’s annual public investment in infrastructure (8.6 billion) and its entire defence budget (7.6 billion). At the same time, Greece is heading towards disorderly default or some form of devaluation. Or both. And now Italy looks vulnerable. Well, I say that the end is nigh but,

Huhne pooh-poohs rising energy bills as ‘nonsense’

Chris Huhne was on the Andrew Marr show this morning. As you might expect on a day when the Sunday Telegraph broke the news that fuel bills will boom by 30 per cent as a result of green taxes, the Energy Secretary was asked to ruminate at length on all matters Murdoch. Eventually, though, Huhne had to answer searching questions pertaining to his brief. Confronted with the Sunday Telegraph’s story, Huhne described it as ‘nonsense’ because it did not take potential savings into account. Huhne also pledged to introduce more competition to shatter the grip that the ‘Big Six’ utility companies have on 90 per cent of the UK’s energy market. Greater

Clegg: don’t let’s be beastly to the eurozone

If you strain your ears, and listen very carefully above the din of the phone hacking scandal, then you may just hear Nick Clegg’s voice wafting across the Channel from Paris. Our Deputy Prime Minister is on the Continent today, delivering a speech that, in other circumstances, might have made more of a splash. This is, after all, a speech in which he stands up for the eurozone, and chastises those eurospectics — some of them within the coalition parties — who are eagerly anticipating its collapse. Or as he puts it himself: “A successful eurozone is essential for a prosperous UK. So there is no room for Schadenfreude here,

Personality and politics

One of the things about the press that politicians frequently complain about is that papers concentrate more on personalities than policies. But reading the latest extracts from Alastair Campbell’s diaries you see just how much personality matters. Indeed, according to Campbell, Tony Blair excluded Gordon Brown from a discussion about what to do after 9/11 not because of any difference about how to respond but because he had become fed up with how difficult Brown was to deal with on a personal level. Now, there are nowhere near the personal tensions at the top of this government that there were in the last one. But because politicians are humans and

Osborne’s voteless recovery?

This is a strange old recovery. The News of the World has an interesting ICM poll today, showing that 66 per cent think the economy is getting worse. It’s not: GDP is growing and we have the second-highest job creation in the G7. Rather than losing jobs to China, we’re flogging Coventry-made Jaguars to Beijing billionaires (one of the random gems uncovered by our new Twitter feed @LocalInterest). So why is everyone so glum? And why do 52 per cent think that David Cameron and George Osborne are doing “a bad job” with the economy?   In theory, Osborne’s recovery is coming on well. His “cuts” agenda is simply a

IDS’ great expectations

There is no rest for IDS. Yesterday he was in Madrid talking about youth unemployment and immigration and today he turns his attention to child poverty. Of all life’s accidents, the accident of birth is the most decisive. It is said that a child’s prospects are determined by the age of five, and numerous other statistics and factoids lead to a similar conclusion. IDS rehearses some in a piece in today’s Guardian. IDS and Labour MP Graham Allen have conducted a report into these matters, and have concluded that early intervention in a child from a deprived or broken family is vital if the poverty gap is to be closed,

Why IDS is right raise the link between immigration and worklessness

Before everyone gets too excited, Iain Duncan Smith is not saying in his speech today that immigration is a bad thing in itself. But he is saying that it has consequences, some of which impinge on native Brits. Many of these consequences are, as it happens, writ in the official statistics. As IDS highlights – and as Coffee House has detailed before – a good number of the jobs that sprang up during the New Labour years were accounted for by immigration; and there are signs that the process is continuing still. This is one of the reasons why the number of jobs in the economy can increase, while the

Our politicians need to look beyond Europe

In Britain, public sector strikes always bring with them the whiff of national decline. They are a reminder of a time when the country was becoming less and less competitive and the civil service regarded its job as the management of decline, a mindset only broken by the Thatcher government.   But today Britain faces a choice almost as acute as the one it faced in the late 1970s. Is this country content with declining slightly less quickly than the continent of Europe as a whole, or does it want to equip itself for a new world in which economic power is moving east?   It is in this context

Lagarde’s appointment is a win for Osborne

The appointment of Christine Lagarde as head of the IMF is a diplomatic victory for George Osborne. The Chancellor was one of her earliest supporters, was the first to nominate her and hit the phones hard on her behalf. She will be a useful ally for Osborne in this position especially given how choppy the global economic waters remain. But the UK government also used the IMF nomination process to do some diplomatic horse-trading. The government made it clear that UK support for Lagarde was contingent on Paris agreeing that Britain should have to play no part in the coming bailout of Greece. There will be those who argue that

Lagarde three giant steps closer as Russia, China and the US back her IMF bid

The 24 members of the IMF board are meeting to see if they can agree that Christine Lagarde should be the organisation’s next leader without a formal vote. Lagarde has already gained formidable backing. 40 per cent of the membership had indicated its support before today’s meetings, while her closest competitor, Mexican Augustin Carstens, had mustered just 12 per cent of the IMF’s votes. The remaining 48 per cent is now concentrating behind Lagarde’s candidacy. Her popularity extends beyond Europe into the vital emerging markets.  Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin gave his signature today, saying that he hopes she will ‘secure reform of the IMF in the interests of developing