Economy

Poor David Cameron. He pledged to reduce annual net migration from the current 240,000 to the “tens of thousands” and what happens? Net migration in 2010 was up by 21 per cent from 2009. In a way, he deserves the flak he’ll get because this was a daft target that could only have been set by someone poorly-advised about the nature of immigration. And the target allows success to be presented as failure. The inflow to Britain has stayed steady (see graph below), but the number emigrating from Britain has fallen. This is a compliment to Cameron: the most sincere vote people can make is with their feet. And in

What’s the most important geo-political event of this century? Most people would say 9/11. The Foreign Secretary believes that it is the Arab Spring. But in The Times today (£), Emma Duncan makes a persuasive case for it being the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Duncan argues that Lehman Brothers’ fall has three claims to be an epoch-making event. The first is its contribution to the financial crisis and subsequent economic stagnation. The second is the way that it has catalysed China’s economic rise vis-à-vis the US, with China now predicted to become the world’s largest economy within this decade. The third, the fact that that the economic troubles of the

The news that the national debt is even larger than it appears ties a knot in the stomach, limiting, as it does, the state’s ability to cut taxes. Andrew Tyrie has called time on the PFI bonanza, but in many ways this intervention comes too late. Back during the financial tempests in the autumn of 2008, my colleagues Peter Hoskin and Fraser Nelson revealed the scale of Gordon Brown’s deceit over PFI. The great debt deceit, Fraser Nelson and Peter Hoskin, The Spectator, 20 September 2008 A few months before the general election which brought New Labour to power, Geoffrey Robinson had David Davis to dinner in his flat overlooking

The word flying around Westminster this evening is that the government is going to announce a fresh package to stimulate growth tomorrow. In line with recent reports, the expectation is that new enterprise zones will be unveiled. Enterprise zones are, of course, the linchpin of the chancellor’s current strategy, offering generous tax breaks for start-up industries, relaxed planning regulations and investment in state-of-the-art broadband, so this would not be a novel move. But an announcement would be timely nonetheless. Lamentable inflation figures released today are set to be joined by poor employment figures tomorrow, suggesting that economic and business confidence may be becoming even more tentative, especially in deprived areas. The grim continental situation is also a matter of grave

David Cameron and Ed Miliband both gave speeches on the riots this morning and the political dividing lines between the two are becoming more and more apparent. Cameron argues that these riots were about culture not poverty, Miliband thinks you can’t ignore inequality. Cameron believes that society needs two parent families, Miliband that it is about parental responsibility. Cameron doesn’t want an enquiry, Miliband does. The challenge for Cameron now is to turn the social analysis in his speech, which I think was broadly correct, into actual policy. Already in Conservative circles, people are saying that if Cameron really does want to support two parent families then surely he must

If there’s one sentiment that defines George Osborne’s article for the Telegraph today, it’s that there is no need for us Brits to panic. The economic convulsions of the past few days, contends the Chancellor, serve to prove that the coalition was right to approach deficit reduction as it has. “The alternative of more spending and yet more borrowing is now frankly ludicrous,” he says, “and places those who advocate it on the outer fringes of the international debate.” He has a point. As I blogged on Saturday, there are reasons to believe that we’d be hurtling towards a credit downgrade and higher borrowing costs were it not for the

A credit downgrade, unemployment at 9.1 per cent, spluttering growth — the economic cards are certainly stacked against Obama for his re-election in 2012. But here’s the thing: American punters still think that he’s more likely to win next November than not. Perhaps that’s because, contrary to Clinton’s famous slogan, it’s not actually all about the economy. According to Nate Silver’s analysis of the last 25 presidential elections, a better rule of thumb is “it’s half the economy and half everything else, stupid”. So if Obama’s losing the first half, what about the “everything else”? The proportion of Americans telling Gallup they approve of Obama’s performance hit a new low