Economy

Monday

David Blackburn

Osborne’s serenade

As James said, Osborne’s speech was a potent blend of economics and politics. One passage in particular stood out politically: when Osborne referred to those who booed when Ed Miliband mentioned Tony Blair during his speech. He said: ‘You know, there was a time when Labour seemed briefly to realise that to win elections it had to accommodate itself to the real world, stop being anti-business, make peace with middle Britain. Not now. It’s over. Once they cheered Tony Blair, now they boo him. I fought three elections against Tony Blair, and I know the damage he did to our country. But it wasn’t just him they were booing last

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Explaining credit easing

Having had a few more discussions, I’m a bit clearer about the government’s plan to do credit easing. The full details of the scheme will be released on the 29th of November as part of the autumn statement. But I hear that the scheme is intended to be worth between the high billions and the low tens of billions and it will be aimed specifically at small and medium sized enterprises, although it could be extended to all companies and expanded up to somewhere in the region of £50bn if the credit markets were to seize up.  I also understand that major supply side measures are being saved up for

Matthew Sinclair

Osborne’s carbon conceits

George Osborne told a Conservative Party increasingly wary of expensive climate policies that Britain needs to “cut [its] carbon emissions no slower but also no faster than our fellow countries in Europe. That’s what I’ve insisted on in the recent carbon budget.”  What he actually insisted on was what Chris Huhne described as “a review of progress in early 2014 to ensure our own carbon targets are in line with the EU’s”.  Even if that review is serious, and energy intensive industries have every reason to be sceptical, it is only going to hold our policy to the same standard as today.  The current targets require us to cut our

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne’s next trick: sub-prime companies?

About 15 years ago, Bill Clinton wanted to promote home ownership among the low-paid, but was annoyed that banks wouldn’t lend freely or cheaply to that group. So, the federal government intervened with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae selling government-backed mortgages at knockdown rates. Nothing showed up on the national debt, because the loan would — in theory — be repaid. The seeds for the sub-prime crisis were sewn.   Today, George Osborne wants to promote recovery and is annoyed than banks won’t lend freely or cheaply enough to small businesses. So, the Treasury will intervene by lending money indirectly by backing a new bond market that lends cash to

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne’s big step

As George Osborne was addressing Tory conference, Standard and Poor reaffirmed Britain’s triple A rating. For the Osborne team, it sent out the perfect message — their deficit strategy is keeping the nation creditworthy. It was their piece of conference theatre for this year. The Chancellor’s address was a sombre affair. But, in some ways, it was his most impressive conference performance. It was a classic Osborne blend of politics and economics, but distinguished by a clear and precise analysis of why the economy was not recovering. Osborne’s big policy announcement was that the Treasury was now exploring credit easing. I’ll have more on this soon, but essentially the idea

David Blackburn

Full text of Osborne’s conference speech

Today, all around our country – indeed, all around the world – people are anxious, worried about their jobs, their families, how they’re going to pay the bills.   I come to you with words of resolve, determination, confidence and belief.   Belief that the British people will overcome this challenge as we have overcome so many before.   Together, we will ride out the storm.     I don’t want anyone to underestimate the gravity of the situation facing the world economy.   But I also don’t want anyone to think that the situation is hopeless; that there is nothing we can do.   Yes the difficulties are great.

David Blackburn

Osborne, the caring chancellor

George Osborne is pursuing the Tesco strategy: every little helps. In his conference speech today, he will announce that he has found £805 million to freeze council tax next year, which will save taxpayers £72. Not a lot, you might think – and that’s Labour’s view – but the chancellor is adamant that he won’t “stand on the sidelines” while living standards contract. Substantial tax cuts have been ruled out by Osborne, but he is expected to make further announcements on benefits. Last week, it was rumoured that he would reverse changes to child benefit for a parent who earned around £42,000 per year. (There are also rumours that the income tax

Sunday

David Blackburn

Shapps sharpens the Right to Buy

It’s a day for growth initiatives. In addition to those described earlier, George Osborne has announced that Whitehall’s annual underspend will be reinvested into capital spending projects. The emphasis on infrastructure echoes Danny Alexander’s statements during the Lib Dem conference, when the Treasury secretary disclosed that existing programmes would be brought forward and funded by recalibrating budgets. So there seems to be agreement between the two parties about bolstering the coalition’s growth strategy in a certain way, which may explain why the Tories are so determined to resist pressure to introduce politically awkward tax cuts. Grant Shapps has also been elaborating on the changes to the Right to Buy. He

David Blackburn

Hague: No deficit funded tax cuts

William Hague’s just been on Dermot Murnaghan’s Sky show. They shot the breeze for a bit, gabbing about foreign affairs and the recent targeted assassinations on Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, then the conversation moved on to tax cuts as an economic stimulus. Hague laughed off the suggestion, saying that the US is in its current crisis because for years it has concentrated on offering tax cuts rather than controlling its deficits. Britain will not make that mistake, he said. ‘No deficit funded tax cuts’ was a line first pursued by David Cameron ten days ago in a speech to the Canadian parliament (although, as Fraser has noted, it has

David Blackburn

Gabbing about growth

Growth is the word on Tory lips at present. David Cameron responded to Andrew Tyrie’s criticism when he arrived in Manchester yesterday evening, saying that the government has “an incredibly active growth strategy”. And there has been some ‘action on growth’ in the last 24 hours. The right-to-buy is being resuscitated. And the coalition has announced that it will release thousands of acres of publicly owned land to build 100,000 houses and support 200,000 jobs by 2015. The plan will be paid for by selling houses later down the line; the government hopes that the taxpayer will make a profit under this scheme. This reform might stoke the already over-heated

Saturday

Jonathan Jones

Briefing: QE2

Get ready for more Quantitative Easing. This week, Reuters found that economists think there’s a 40 per cent chance the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce another round when they meet on Thursday. And even if they hold off now, it’s unlikely to be for long. Weak growth and the worsening outlook for the economy seem to have changed minds. The Treasury has surveyed growth predictions from independent forecasters. Back in January, the average prediction was for 2 per cent growth in 2011. It has since fallen steadily to just 1.2 per cent. Similarly, expectations for 2012 have also been downgraded, from the 2.1 per cent growth

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne and tax cuts

“Top Conservative despairs of Cameron growth plan,” says The Times’ front page today. While The Daily Telegraph’s reads: “No tax cuts before the next election, says Osborne”. The two stories are related. British economic growth is evaporating, and more than a few Tory MPs are worried that the Chancellor doesn’t have a coherent growth strategy and that he doesn’t seem to care. Osborne’s cheery interview with Robert Winnett and Ben Brogan will do nothing to allay such fears. He repeats his position on tax cuts: that, while desirable, they are likedessert once the nation has eaten its main course of cuts and tax rises. He appears to rule out using tax cuts

David Blackburn

Tyrie’s blast spices up pre-conference

Treasury Committee Chairman, Andrew Tyrie, has shaken the nascent Tory conference with a coruscating statement about the government’s growth plan and general legislative programme. He writes, in a detailed policy document for the Centre for Policy Studies that is political in its emphasis as much as it is economic: ‘There is much to do, and it is not just a question of gaps in policy. A coherent and credible plan for the long-term economic growth rate of the UK economy is needed. The Big Society; localism; the green strategy — whether right or wrong; these and other initiatives have seemed at best irrelevant to the task in hand, if not

James Plunkett

A reform the Tories should shout about

As of today, you can’t fire someone just for turning 65. The government has delivered its promise to scrap the Default Retirement Age (DRA), introduced by Labour in 2006 as a caveat to otherwise laudable equality legislation. This ends the practice of forced retirement regardless of someone’s ability to work. Killing it is one of the best things the coalition has done and the Tories should be making more of as they gather in Manchester. Of course, there will be some transition difficulties from scrapping (DRA), but they’re likely to be minor. Claims that older workers sticking around in their jobs will squeeze out the young are too simplistic –

Friday

David Blackburn

Osborne mulling child benefit u-turn

Eric Pickles makes no bones that his bin policy is aimed at Middle Britain, and the Tories may soon announce more measures to butter up that vital electoral constituency. The Times reports (£) that Cameron and Osborne are seriously considering a u-turn on their controversial cut to child benefits over families in which parent earns more than £42,475, which is due to be introduced in January 2013. George Osborne apparently never does anything unless it yields a political dividend and this is an intriguing development, if it materialises. It reiterates that the Tories know they have a woman problem; identified by Melanie McDonagh in a magazine cover piece earlier this

Thursday

David Blackburn

The guilty men’s misplaced loyalties

Here’s Peter Oborne in mid-season form on Newsnight last night, drawing on the book he previewed in his essential cover piece in last week’s issue of the Spectator, The Guilty Men. The spokesman from the European Commission makes a statement that exposes Brussels’ current helplessness, but his comment about the post-war era reveals what many pro-Europeans on the continent feel: the EU’s greatest achievement is to have secured peace and prosperity across a continent that had been at war for most of the previous 1,000 years; wars that obviously assumed terrible dimensions in the 20th Century. The spokesman also refers to the EU’s perceived second greatest achievement: the most complete welfare settlement in

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Miliband’s three mistakes

Three things puzzled me about Ed Miliband’s conference speech yesterday. First, I didn’t understand why Miliband did not attack Cameron for having talked about the need for ‘moral capitalism’ and then have not delivered it. It would have been far harder for Miliband’s speech to be caricatured as left wing if he had pointed out that Cameron had promised ‘to place the market within a moral framework – even if that means standing up to companies who make life harder for parents and families’ – and then not delivered on that pledge. The second thing was the absence of any policy at all. Any shadow minister sent out to defend the

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

Miliband VS Predator

You can see what Ed Miliband was trying to do. As his party isn’t trusted on the economy (his number one problem) he had to say how much he admires business. But, then again, his party is bankrolled by unions who dislike capitalists. So, Ed Miliband draws a dividing line: the ‘predator’ companies (bad) and companies like Rolls Royce, for example, and presumably small businesses (good). Here is the new narrative of his leadership: Miliband vs Predator, coming to a cinema near you. But just like Cameron’s ‘runaway dads’, the concept of a predator company is easier to talk about in the abstract than in real life. Just what is a bad company? Asset

Clarissa Tan

Russia’s Kudrin quits – but how will he return?

The dramatic – some would say theatrical – exit of Alexei Kudrin as Russia’s finance minister couldn’t have come at a worst time. The world economy is incredibly fragile and oil prices are in flux. But is Kudrin, highly respected for his fiscal policies and a member of Putin’s inner circle, merely pushing for promotion? With the ruble slumping to a 28-month low yesterday, there are signs the market is worried over the loss of a finance minister who prudently curbed Russia’s budgetary excesses and far-sightedly built up its oil wealth funds. “Kudrin’s resignation will be a big blow for the Russian economy – experts are already forecasting a new wave

Jonathan Jones

How’s Miliband doing?

In a word: badly. Ed Miliband has now led Labour for a full year, but has made no progress with regards to its standings in the polls. When he took over, the Labour party was at 37 per cent in the polls, according to Ipsos MORI. Considering that 60 per cent give the Coalition government the thumbs down, he’s had ample opportunity to improve this figure. And yet he’s failed. In their latest poll, MORI again have Labour on 37 per cent.   When it comes to his own personal ratings, the picture is even worse. As Miliband has become more well-known and more people have formed an opinion of