Economy

The dawdling eurozone

For all the attention that is being focused in Westminster on the publication of the Cabinet Secretary’s report into the links between Adam Werritty and Liam Fox tomorrow, the real story is the countdown to Cannes. It is now three weeks since George Osborne declared that the eurozone countries had three weeks to save the Euro. So far, they haven’t done anywhere near enough. There’s also little sign that this weekend’s summit will see them make much progress. The Germans are already busy playing down expectations. From a British perspective, the intriguing question is: what does the coalition do if the eurozone continues to show no sign of getting its

Trust in bricks and mortar

If George Osborne is serious about growth, a relatively easy decision awaits him: to stimulate the economy by spending more on housebuilding. David Cameron knows there’s a problem, and during Tory conference announced a “Tory Housing Revolution” to tackle the failing housing market, and plans to boost Right to Buy and release more land for house building that will deliver 200,000 new homes and create 400,000 jobs. All welcome, suggesting the government has recognised the role that housing can play in creating growth. But if the Treasury is looking to stimulate demand in the short term, there’s still much more that could be done. Investment in housing can happen fast.

Labour failing to regain economic credibility

Labour may have a narrow leads in the polls, but they continue to lag behind the Tories on the public’s number one issue: the economy. Today’s ComRes poll finds that just 18 per cent trust Eds Miliband and Balls “to make the right decisions about the economy”, compared to 30 per cent for Cameron and Osborne. Worse, the two Eds don’t even have the confidence of the majority of Labour voters: only 48 per cent trust them on the economy. YouGov also find Labour behind when it comes to the economy. 30 per cent think the Conservatives would handle it best, while just 26 per cent think Labour would. And

Miliband and Balls, in tandem

So, CoffeeHousers, are Eds Balls and Miliband a gruesome twosome or the most sparkling partnership since Torvill and Dean? I ask only because they’re really pushing the double-act shtick today. There’s their first-ever joint interview in the Evening Standard, for instance, in which they reminisce about the Shadow Chancellor’s 30th Birthday party, among other things. And then there was their joint appearance to officially launch Labour’s ‘plan for growth’ campaign this afternoon. They were talking policy, but there was also a strong emphasis on their personal relationship: eye contact, anecdotes, that sort of thing. Blair and Brown we are not, they seemed to be saying. As for the policy, if

Time to scrap the minimum wage?

Today’s youth unemployment figures are simply appalling. It’s now 21 per cent amongst the under-25s, above the peak of 18 per cent seen under the 1990s recession. For the first time since then, Britain’s youth joblessness is worse than the European average. This is a tragedy, and not one we should accept as being a grimly inevitable aspect of the recession. Ed Miliband said in PMQs that a million young people are on the dole: a statistic everyone should get angry about. And we can think of what has gone wrong. The above graph shows how Britain has nothing left to boast about in unemployment. Blair used to love heading

Right to reply: The truth behind the poverty figures

This morning, Fraser published a piece criticising the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ definition of poverty. Here is a counterpunch from Julia Unwin, Chief Executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, which is the organisation that funds the IFS. This article is the latest post in our Right to Reply series.  Do we really need another debate about the usefulness of a poverty measure? Of course, no definition is perfect. One of the hardy perennials of the poverty debate is the question of measurement. I wonder what it says about us as a country: why do we spend so much effort thinking about definitions of poverty, and so little responding to the

Fraser Nelson

The poverty of the poverty measure

‘400,000 children will fall into relative poverty by 2015, says IFS’ we read on The Guardian’s front page today — yes, one of the most pernicious ideas of recent years is back. It’s the definition of ‘poverty’ as being figures on a spreadsheet, households deemed to fall beneath an arbitrary threshold. It’s almost entirely meaningless, and diverts energy and resources away from a real fight against poverty. I really do believe that, as ideas go, this one has damaged Britain more than almost any other over the last two decades — and it’s high time it was confronted.   The ‘poverty’ that the Institute of Fiscal Studies is talking about

Another voice: Against austerity

Here’s the latest in our Another Voice series of posts, which give prominence to viewpoints outside the normal Coffee House fold: You can’t help but notice that the UK economy isn’t doing too well. Part of this is down to international developments, sure. But part – as Mervyn King said in “http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/pdf/govletter111006.pdf”>his letterto George Osborne last week – is the result of “fiscal consolidation”, aka spending cuts. The IMF’s assessment, published a few days ago, shows both why debt has risen (lower tax revenues) and what is happening now (sharp contraction): And there’s much more contraction to come: So why keep on contracting if it is affecting economic growth? Clearly, the Prime Minister

How bad is it, Mervyn?

Remember when Alistair Darling said that we faced the worst financial crisis for sixty years? Now Mervyn King has trumped that piece of doom-mongery by telling Channel 4 last night that “This is undoubtedly the biggest financial crisis the world economy has ever faced” (see video above, three minutes in). The Governor of the Bank of England saying that this is the worst crisis ever? On the day that he rushed another £75 billion into the economy? As mood music goes, it is a particularly dreadful symphony.       It is also the sort of situation that Ed Balls will relish, especially with the Pre-Budget Report approaching. And it is true:

Another round of Easing

So the Bank of England has pulled the lever on a second round of Quantitative Easing. Apparently sluggish economic growth, plus more ominous signs from the eurozone, have persuaded the central bank it can’t wait any longer to print more money. But given the evidence from QE1 – only a small boost to GDP accompanied by extra inflation – it’s a big gamble. Mervyn King & the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee clearly believe that more money in the system is what’s needed to kick-start growth. But even they admit that QE1 didn’t live up to expectations, so why should QE2? In the meantime, quantitative easing as an instrument

Another voice: Five lessons from Conservative party conference

Here’s the latest in our Another Voice series of posts, which give prominence to viewpoints outside the normal Coffee House fold. This time it’s the IPPR’s Associate Director, Will Straw, with his five-point take on the fringe events of Tory conference, and the lessons that might be learned from them: 1. The Tories know that winning a working majority in 2015 is no easy task. The most popular fringe event according to Fringelist.com was ConservativeHome’s event on ‘How the Conservatives can win the next election.’ Reflecting his remarks from the panel, YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare wrote yesterday that, “today’s electoral maths makes an overall a majority a mountain to climb”.  

What did Fleet Street make of Cameron’s speech?

Not a lot is the short answer. Many commentators argue that the speech failed to match the gravity of this moment in time; that it was safe; that it was not prime ministerial. Steve Richards believes that Cameron was timid, choosing to reassure rather than challenge. He writes: ‘Yesterday in his address David Cameron did Ed Miliband an unlikely favour. He made Miliband’s seem deeper and substantial. The Labour leader’s address last week was poorly structured and delivered, yet compared with Cameron’s it had an argument and was at least an attempt to address the scale of tumultuous change sweeping across Britain. In contrast Cameron’s speech was a giddying guided tour

Cameron does enough

There were three big themes to David Cameron’s speech. The first was that decline is not inevitable, an attempt to tackle the mood of pessimism that is gripping the nation. The second was an attempt to reassert the Conservatives’ compassionate credentials, hence the emphasis on how the Liberal Democrats would have cut the NHS and the section explaining why conservatives should support gay marriage. The third was leadership, Cameron’s biggest advantage over the other party leaders. The attack on the idea of Britain’s decline being inevitable was powerful in places. But because Cameron has a non-ideological approach to growth it is hard for him to make a stirring argument about

Cameron’s leadership pitch

Leadership, leadership, leadership. You couldn’t miss it. Leadership wasn’t just the clearest theme of David Cameron’s speech to the Tory conference just now, but also one of its most common words. By my count, it popped up around 30 times. “I’m proud to lead this party,” he said in the very first paragraph. “It is leadership we need,” he continued. The aim, I’m sure, was to paint an even stronger contrast between David Cameron the Prime Minister and Ed Miliband the Sub-Prime Ministerial. But Cameron wasn’t just talking about his own leadership. As he put it himself, “success will come: with the right ideas, the right approach, the right leadership. Leadership

Cameron wants to offer the “right” leadership

As flat as flat champagne — that’s the verdict on this year’s Tory conference, which is ironic given that the two year ban on champagne was lifted this year. Bruce Anderson argues that the dour atmosphere is intentional. These are serious times for sombre politics, not the frivolity occasioned by a conference at a seaside resort. David Cameron’s first objective, Bruce says, is to reassure the country and present himself as a leader for a crisis. Cameron’s conference speech has been widely trailed by most news outlets this morning. Tim Montgomerie has a comprehensive overview of the speech. Cameron’s first challenge is to emote: these are “anxious times” for ordinary

Good Boris

Boris Johnson must be one of the very few politicians in the world to make the audience laugh before they even start their speech. Just by walking on stage, he has the effect of a good comedian: the punters start to smile, in anticipation of some good one-liners. In today’s case, Boris got a standing ovation before he opened his mouth. Here is the man judged by Ladbrokes as the most likely next Conservative leader, but he had not come to stir. The Prime Minister – who lavished praise on the Mayor last night – was in the hall. It was all Big Society (BoJo division): affordable housing and a reprise of

What Fleet Street made of Osborne’s speech

The abiding image of this conference may be the sight of Steve Hilton apparently shepherding the turbulent Andrew Tyrie into a booth, from which Tyrie emerged singing George Osborne’s praises. “A huge step forward…you can some consistencies,” he said, which was an endorsement of sorts. What did everyone else make of it? As you can see, David Cameron looked morose at times, but the mood in the hall oscillated between sobriety and quiet optimism, matching Osborne’s blend of austerity and promise for the future. Fleet Street is similarly conflicted: no paper gives him an unqualified endorsement, but no paper entirely rubbishes him either. The Times concludes (£), as Tyrie did on Saturday,

What Osborne got right

After being mean about Osborne’s sub-prime corporate debt policy, I should say that he got a lot right in his speech earlier today. His delivery was the best I’ve seen: he looked relaxed, and sounded conversational. This suits him: he’s not a hell-and-brimstone kind of politician. He dealt with the dire subject matter in a confident way and was not in the least defensive. And he showed a glimpse of the sunlit uplands, so conspicuously absent from Vince Cable’s doom-laden speech a fortnight ago. That said, it seemed apparent from the rest of his speech that he is bracing himself – and us – for a downward surge on the economic

Osborne’s serenade

As James said, Osborne’s speech was a potent blend of economics and politics. One passage in particular stood out politically: when Osborne referred to those who booed when Ed Miliband mentioned Tony Blair during his speech. He said: ‘You know, there was a time when Labour seemed briefly to realise that to win elections it had to accommodate itself to the real world, stop being anti-business, make peace with middle Britain. Not now. It’s over. Once they cheered Tony Blair, now they boo him. I fought three elections against Tony Blair, and I know the damage he did to our country. But it wasn’t just him they were booing last

James Forsyth

Explaining credit easing

Having had a few more discussions, I’m a bit clearer about the government’s plan to do credit easing. The full details of the scheme will be released on the 29th of November as part of the autumn statement. But I hear that the scheme is intended to be worth between the high billions and the low tens of billions and it will be aimed specifically at small and medium sized enterprises, although it could be extended to all companies and expanded up to somewhere in the region of £50bn if the credit markets were to seize up.  I also understand that major supply side measures are being saved up for