Economy

Reinhart and Rogoff’s faulty spreadsheet doesn’t destroy the case for austerity

Economists should always leave themselves a margin for error. When challenged that free-market policies on both sides of the Atlantic in the 1980s led straight from boom to bust, Milton Friedman argued that problems arose not when politicians applied his prescriptions too dogmatically, but because they only ever did so half-heartedly. John Maynard Keynes, the high priest of big government, changed his mind ‘when the facts change’ and was so magisterially flexible that he was able to express ‘deeply moved agreement’ with the moral stance of The Road to Serfdom, Friedrich Hayek’s sermon against the tyranny of the over-powerful state. The Harvard professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, by contrast,

Deficit falls by 0.3%… maybe

George Osborne will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning. The boast he made in his Autumn Statement in December — ‘the deficit is coming down this year, and every year of this Parliament’ — appears to have held up. But only just. The figures from the ONS today show that the government borrowed £120.9 billion in 2011-12 and £86.2 billion in 2012-13. But that 2012-13 figure is artificially lowered by £28 billion by the Royal Mail pension transfer, and by a further £6.4 billion by the cash transferred to the Treasury from the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility. Strip out those two effects and borrowing in 2012-13

No, the Tory Detoxification Project is Not Complete.

There are times, I confess, when I wonder about politicians. They are a rum breed and it still seems possible to rise to quite elevated heights without possessing very much of an idea about anything. Consider the cabinet minister quoted in this Telegraph article: Mr Cameron won the leadership promising to modernise the party, but one Cabinet minister said it should now “move on” to more “traditional” Conservative issues such as welfare reform and immigration control. “The ‘toxic’ issue has been neutralised,” the minister said. “Now we can move on to the red meat Conservative issues.” Another minister said Mr Cameron should take to heart Lady Thatcher’s example and be

Has the jobs recovery stalled?

The number of people in work in December to February was 29.698 million — lower than last month’s 29.732 million and representing a very slight 2,000 quarter-on-quarter fall — according to today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics. Of course, 2,000 is just a 0.008 per cent drop, and since the margin of error for that change is ±139,000, the quarter could yet turn out to have been one of reasonable jobs growth. But in today’s figures, the lack of employment growth, while the economically active population continued to expand, meant that the unemployment level rose by 70,000 — its biggest quarter-on-quarter rise since September to November 2011. The

The View from 22 special — Fuel Wars: how to get the best deal for the consumers

In association in Centrica How can consumers ensure they are receiving the best possible deal for their energy bills? In this special View from 22 podcast, the Spectator’s political editor James Forsyth discusses issues within in the energy market and some potential solutions for getting the lowest possible energy bills. Is shale gas the answer? Do green subsidies need to be cut? And is the government doing enough to help the consumer? Joining the panel are the Rt Hon Peter Lilley MP, Conservative MP for Hitchin and Harpenden and member of the Select Committee on Climate Change, Peter Moorey, Principal Advocate for Which? Consumer Review services and Ian Peters, the

Is Andrew Mitchell the right man for Britain in Europe?

It now looks almost certain that Andrew Mitchell will be our next EU Commissioner in 2014. The job was not advertised and the backroom selection process remains a mystery. In the wake of the Plebgate row, though, we can make an educated guess as to why, according to the FT, Downing Street has asked Mitchell ‘to consider’ the offer. This would be no ordinary consolation prize for Mitchell. Downing Street has big hopes for Mitchell in the role. Senior Whitehall sources indicate that Britain will be pushing hard for a big economic portfolio when the new commission is appointed next year. The aim is to make the case for financial

Is Boris really ready to lead the Tory party?

Boris needs to pay attention. As James Allen said, ‘Circumstances do not make the man, they reveal him.’ Given his colourful character, discussion so far about Boris’s leadership potential has focused on the man himself; but politics is about being in the right place at the right time, as Churchill would attest. Unprecedented levels of national debt, a stagnant economy, a healthcare system that isn’t delivering, a Eurozone that may yet collapse into meltdown, a chronic housing shortage, endemic low productivity and a state that has stretched its tentacles into so many areas of people’s lives it is proving extremely difficult to disentangle – these are just a taste of

George Osborne launches welfare counter-attack

The petition to get Iain Duncan Smith to live on £53/week has amassed more than 122,000 signatures. And counting, quickly. The petition was inspired by IDS remarking, on yesterday’s Today programme, that he could live on such a welfare settlement. The secretary of state could not have said anything else; yet these incidents always create media firestorms. The IDS blaze still burns this morning; but that may not unnerve the government: from its perspective, news bulletins devoted to IDS’ gait are preferable to those devoted to the vulnerable. After a gruelling, though not unsuccessful, 24 hours warring over welfare cuts, the government is mounting a flanking counter-attack. A scattering of economic

Sir Andrew Motion, there’s much more to rural life than housing

Five years of living in squalid parts of London has made me appreciate my rural upbringing. I grew up on a small farm on the borders of West Sussex, Surrey and Hampshire. It’s an area of outstanding natural beauty, a stretch of wooded undulations pocketed between the North and South Downs. The house is perched on one of these small hills, facing south east with a view across the flat expanse of East Sussex. On a clear day such as this, you can see the shadow of the Low Weald, the hills which divide Sussex and Kent, through the haze. There’s nowhere I’d rather be. It is a quiet corner

Matt Hancock vows to fight low pay, but fails to emphasise the importance of low inflation

Matt Hancock, the business and skills minister, addressed the Resolution Foundation’s low pay debate this morning, an indication of how seriously the Tories are taking the rising cost of living. He delivered a resounding defence of the minimum wage. He said that the evidence was overwhelming: the minimum wage did not harm employment levels: and declared that the Conservatives should ‘strengthen’ the minimum wage. He said that the minimum wage should be enforced, and hinted that the Low Pay Commission might be reinforced. He said that working more hours was not necessarily the right answer, contrary to those who hold that Britain needs to harder and longer. Beyond that, Hancock proposed

Budget 2013: The public’s verdict

We’ve got the first post-Budget polling from YouGov, and it brings mixed news for George Osborne. Certainly, this Budget doesn’t seem (so far) to have dented the Chancellor’s reputation the way last year’s did — but nor has it yet enhanced it as his 2011 Budget seemed to. And on the question of which would make the better Chancellor, Osborne maintains the six-point lead over Ed Balls he has held since November 2011. And on the all-important criterion of ‘fairness’, Wednesday’s Budget scores relatively well. 39 per cent think it’s fair, while 31 per cent say it isn’t. That’s a big improvement on last year, when 32 per cent said

Interview with a writer: Jaron Lanier

In his new book, Who Owns The Future?, computer scientist, Jaron Lanier, argues that as technology has become more advanced, so too has our dependency on information tools. Lanier believes that if we continue on our present path, where we think of computers as passive tools, instead of machines that real people create, our myopia will result in less understanding of both computers and human beings, which could cause the demise of democracy, mass unemployment, the erosion of the middle class, and social chaos. Lanier encourages human beings to take back control of their own economic destiny by creating a society that values the work of all industries, and not just

The empty Budget

Dangerous, unfair, verging on kleptomania: the bailout deal proposed by the EU at the weekend and rejected by Cyprus MPs on Tuesday is everything it has been described as over the past few days, and worse. Now it has been established that the EU views bank depositors as a potential piggy bank to be raided at whim, it is hard to see why anyone would keep significant quantities of cash on deposit in European banks. We are back where we started in 2007, with the threat of Northern Rock-style bank runs across the Continent. Yet the proposed raid in Cyprus is really only different in perception from what is being

Cyprus: This isn’t a tax, it’s a bank raid

You know this levy on Cyprus bank deposits? It’s not a levy. A levy is a kind of tax, and what is happening to the people with bank deposits in Cyprus is no kind of tax, although today the European Commission spokesmen have been insisting it is. How can it be a tax when the depositors are going to be ‘compensated’ with shares in the bank? I mean, when you pay your income tax, George Osborne doesn’t compensate you with shares in RBS. No, what’s happening in Cyprus — assuming that the Cypriot parliament is just as gutless as the new Cypriot president, Nicos Anastasiades, in capitulating to eurozone demands

Forget 50p — scrap the 60p tax rate

Imagine if a Chancellor stood up and announced that those earning up to £100,000 would pay a 40p tax rate, those earning £100,000 to £112,950 will pay a 60p rate, and those earning above £112,950 will pay the 40p rate, and then the top earners will pay a 50p rate. That’d be crazy, right? But that’s exactly what Alistair Darling announced in his 2009 Budget. So how did he get away with it? By delivering his announcement in code. Instead of talking about marginal tax rates, he described the move as withdrawing the personal allowance for those with incomes over £100,000. The language may be different — and may sound

Cable and Fox tug at the Coalition’s centre

The leaders of both coalition parties are seeing ministerial colleagues and backbenchers trying to push them further way from the centre at present. Nick Clegg has Vince Cable continuing to push for what Ed Miliband might call ‘good borrowing’, telling the Today programme that he’d borrow to improve the economy, rather than to keep an inefficient economic model going. He said: ‘There’s borrowing for different reasons, and this was the point I was trying to make last week, that you can borrow simply to plug the hole in the deficit… The metaphor I’ve used which helps to explain it – there’s a difference between increasing your credit card in order

Clegg: the Tories are like a broken shopping trolley – they always veer to the right.

If you want to know what the Liberal Democrat’s message at the next election will be, read Nick Clegg’s speech to the party’s Spring Conference today. He kept to the refrain that the Liberal Democrats are for a stronger economy and a fairer society and you can’t trust the Tories with society or Labour with the economy. In a sign of the new, more disciplined Lib Dem machine there were no detours from this core theme. Listening to Clegg, you would have had no idea that the leadership had lost a vote on secret courts this morning. Clegg knows that his internal position hasn’t been this strong since the Liberal

Tories and Lib Dems strike deal on mansion tax vote

Further to Isabel’s post this morning, I understand from a senior coalition source that the two parties have now reached an agreement on how to handle Tuesday’s vote on Labour’s mansion tax motion. The Liberal Democrat leadership has assured their coalition partners that they’ll back a government amendment to it. This amendment will concede that the coalition parties have different views on the issue. The only question now is whether the speaker John Bercow will call it. I suspect that this agreement has been helped by a desire to limit coalition tensions post-Eastleigh and pre-Budget. There is also reluctance on the part of the Liberal Democrats to get dragged into

David Cameron DOES have a magic money tree

So David Cameron says there is ‘no magic money tree’. In his big economy speech today, the Prime Minister said:  ‘Now of course there are plenty of people out there with different advice about how to fix our broken economy. Some say cut more and borrow less, others cut less and borrow more. Go faster. Go slower. Cut taxes. Put them up. We need to cut through all this and tell people some plain truths. So let me speak frankly and do just that. ‘There are some people who think we don’t have to take all these tough decisions to deal with our debts. They say that our focus on

Fraser Nelson

Budget 2013: How George Osborne ran out of ideas

Before every Budget, George Osborne always seeks the advice of various MPs. He usually doesn’t heed it but it’s a good way, he thinks, to keep the troops happy. As the economic headwinds have strengthened, this advice has tended to be increasingly radical and in a recent meeting with the Free Enterprise Group of Tory MPs, the Chancellor made clear he was in no mood for it. ‘Look,’ he told them, ‘I tried radicalism in last year’s Budget, and I had blowback for it. So I’d take quite some persuading to do something radical this time.’ The MPs left with the clear impression that he is now preparing what will