Economy

The latest figures showing a big increase in net migration are a blow to the Conservatives, although it obviously reflects on the relative strength of the British economy; at least in relation to the basket cases of southern Europe, from where large numbers have come. It will almost certainly mean more Tory voters joining Nigel Farage’s purple revolution, especially because it illustrates the impossibility of controlling immigration while Britain is inside the EU; the number of EU citizens arriving went up from 149,000 to 209,000 in a year. But that’s part of the curious 80/20 Rule about the immigration debate; Europeans accounted for only a fifth of migration under New

Today’s borrowing figures are, on the surface, not good for the Tories. The surplus on the public finances in January 2014 was lower than for the same month in 2013, at £4.7 billion compared to last year’s £6.0 billion figure (although it’s worth pointing out that the difference could get even smaller with subsequent revisions). That disappointing figure means that over the year, Osborne has borrowed just £4 billion than at the same point last year:- These figures give Labour the opportunity to remind voters that George Osborne has failed to meet his own targets. But there is an easy way to spin this, which is that there is still

Mark Carney has been a very successful Governor of the Bank of England. Since coming to office in June last year, the British economy has gone from strength to strength. Although Mr Carney can’t take all the credit, on his watch unemployment is falling rapidly and business confidence is at a record high. His appointment and policies have been met with general approval by the UK’s business leaders, which is to be welcomed. So it is a shame that yesterday there were reports that the Governor thinks an EU referendum would be ‘bad for the economy’. The claim stems from the Governor’s comments on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday. In response to a

When things were going pretty badly for the Conservatives, ministers reassured one another that soon they’d be able to start hitting back at Labour with statistics. They’re doing that now – and are hitting as often as possible, even when it’s Labour’s turn to say something. Today the party has released figures to back up David Cameron’s claim at PMQs this week that people are better off, and they show that most people’s earnings are increasing by more than inflation. Now, Labour is quibbling the stats themselves, pointing out that they don’t involve benefit cuts and tax rises. But while Labour is overall losing in the battle of stats, there

listen to ‘Ed Miliband’s ‘One Nation Economy’ banking reform speech’ on Audioboo Today I want to tell you what the next election is about for Labour. It is about those families who work all the hours that God sends and don’t feel they get anything back. It is about the people who go to bed anxious about how they’re going to pay their bills. It is about the parents who turn to each other each night and ask what life their sons and daughters are going to have in the future. It is about those just starting out who can’t imagine they will ever afford a home of their own.

I try to avoid mentioning Owen Jones because he already gets so much attention from people on the Right, including quite a lot of abuse on t’internet; the poor man’s probably blocked more people than have followed me. But his letter to Ukip voters in today’s Independent interested me as a study in what Jonathan Haidt described as the Left’s blind spot. Owen’s argument is that Ukip supporters have Left-wing views on the economy and therefore should desert former City trader Nigel Farage and join him in voting for a socialist party. A lot of Ukippers (horrible word but I can’t think of any other) do have fairly socialistic views

Today’s PMQs has left Ed Miliband with a strategic headache. Miliband’s new less-Punch and Judy approach to PMQs isn’t working. In large part, this is because Cameron — who thinks he wins more of these sessions than he loses and that the facts on the ground now favour him — isn’t interested in cooperating. So Miliband is faced with the choice of continuing with this approach and being beaten up every Wednesday or abandoning it after just two sessions. If Miliband does continue with it, expect to see the Tories continue to try to goad Ed Balls, one of the Commons’ most enthusiastic hecklers, into responding to them in kind

Is the improving economy harming Labour’s standing? According to a new Guardian/ICM survey out today, Labour is still ahead of the Conservatives by three points — but the gap is slowly shrinking. Since the last ICM poll in December, Labour’s lead has dropped to just three points, down from an eight point lead in November: Today’s poll also looks at how assured people are feeling about their own financial position and their ‘ability to keep up with the cost of living’. 52 per cent now feel confident about the state of their personal finances — the highest level since October 2010. Confidence in financial situations plummeted in 2010 and a

Earlier today the Chancellor gave a speech on the economy where he set up a choice for politicians: cut back on welfare, or hurt ‘hard working families’ with tax rises and cuts to services like the NHS. Here’s the full text and audio of his speech:- listen to ‘Osborne: ‘Cutting the welfare bill is the kind of decision we need to make’’ on Audioboo

At the beginning of the autumn, strategists from all three parties assumed that the theme of the season would be Labour’s poll lead narrowing as the economic recovery picked up pace. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, Labour’s lead has remained and its own poll numbers have actually ticked up. This is, largely, thanks to Ed Miliband’s reframing of the political debate about the economy, making it about living standards But the autumn statement showed that when the political conversation is focused on the broader economy, the Tories have the better of it. Thursday has weakened Ed Balls, strengthened George Osborne and begun to move the political debate off Labour’s turf

When George Osborne stands up next week to deliver the autumn statement, he’ll have some good news to deliver. Not only is autumn, the dreariest of the British seasons over, but borrowing has come in lower than expected and the OBR will upgrade the growth forecasts. But the return of growth, as I say in the magazine this week, poses a strategic dilemma for Osborne. If he declares the economic emergency over, the public might conclude it was safe to turn back to Labour. But equally he has to show voters that he’s sharing the proceeds of growth. I suspect that Osborne will steer clear of too many sweetners. They’ll

The next time you see a Tory minister on television, count how long it is until they say that David Cameron is a leader with a long term plan for this country. This is the Tories’ new message. In a presentation to Cameron’s political Cabinet on Tuesday morning, Lynton Crosby told the ministers present that the Tories would probably lose the election if it was held today or tomorrow. But, as I report in the Mail on Sunday, he stressed that the election was still 16 months away so the Tories had time to turn things round. He emphasised that they should play up that Cameron is a man with a