Twenty years ago, starting at this Labour conference, we together took the historic step of reforming our party’s constitution. The result is on the back of our membership cards today. listen to ‘Ed Balls addresses the Labour conference’ on Audioboo
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi secured a place in history by his demonstration, on 26 July 2012, of the power of words in a financial crisis. Not long in office, he had already shown willingness to act firmly, averting a liquidity crunch by providing three-year lending facilities for European banks. That day, he told a conference in London: ‘Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.’ While the rest of the speech was an opaque metaphor about the euro as a bumblebee — ‘a mystery of nature because it shouldn’t fly but instead it
For the last five years, politicians of all shades have been banging on about how we should adopt this or that aspect of German economic policy. George Osborne argued in 2011: ‘We want to learn the lessons of the successful Mittelstand model, which has operated in Germany for many decades.’ Only a few weeks ago, Vince Cable argued: ‘Britain has not been as good as competitors like Germany in turning ideas into wealth creation.’ The German economy seems to be widely admired, despite lagging behind Britain’s for nearly a generation. It is true that Germany had a better post-crash period than the UK, but its financial sector was smaller and many of
Mr S was interested to read that Mark Carney has sounded the alarm on low wage growth. In light of yesterday’s announcements, the Times’s business commentator Andrew Clark calls for bosses to ‘display a modicum of largesse’ to sustain the economic recovery. Mr S hears on the grapevine that business leaders are planning to open their pockets at the end of this year, if only to stop Ed Miliband, who is regarded with a certain amount of distrust. The thinking is that a wage rise will undermine Labour’s (increasingly successful) rhetoric on the cost of living. Mr S wonders: will a prominent Tory use the party conference, the last before
Today was set to be a boring day in Westminster. Sajid Javid, a courtier to George Osborne, was billed to give (yet another) speech about how the economy is going ‘gangbusters’ and why evil Labour would trash the recovery. Dutiful hacks were pottering off to the Centre for Policy Studies, the venue for Javid’s speech, when news broke of Boris Johnson’s ‘off the cuff’ announcement that he might stand in 2015 after all. This political hand grenade blew the government’s media plan completely apart. Javid was spotted calling CCHQ for a line to take on the Boris comeback. He duly took to the podium and prepared for questions that would
The economy has recovered, and is steadily growing. That much is now clear. It has long been assumed that this will help the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes. The logic goes that, having steered the country through difficult economic times, a grateful public will come out in their droves to thank them for it. But politics is never that simple, and the public are rarely so willing to give credit to politicians. While it may seem perverse to suggest that economic growth is harming the Tories’ electoral chances, continuing good news about the economy is making it less of an electoral issue. Voters are beginning to ask: ‘what next?’ David Cameron
Trade unions have an important role in any decent society, but their stranglehold on the Labour Party is something we must fight against. I will never forget walking the streets of Poland back in 1981, when martial law was in force, and there were armed soldiers on almost every street corner. There it was a trade union, Solidarity, which brought authoritarian Communism to its knees. In the UK Margaret Thatcher recognised the importance of trade unions in society. Indeed one of her first roles in politics was as chairman of Dartford Conservative Trade Unionists. But the battle in British politics today is nothing to do with the work done by
‘Sanctions,’ said Kofi Annan, ‘are a necessary middle ground between war and words.’ Neither the EU nor the US will deploy troops or missiles to defend Ukraine against Russian-backed separatists, while Vladimir Putin basks in hostile Western words and turns them to domestic advantage. That leaves sanctions as the only means of seeking to influence him. But do they work? Evidence is not persuasive: in 200 cases studied by academics in Washington, from the League of Nations action against Italy’s aggression in Abyssinia in the mid-1930s to Russia’s assault on Georgia in 2008, sanctions were judged successful in one third of cases; in many of those, success was ‘partial’. In
Better capital makes us richer. That’s uncontroversial when it comes to fixed capital like machine tools and computers, but it’s also true of human capital. Better educated workers create more productive jobs, increasing the total amount of wealth in an economy. In a new Adam Smith Institute report released today, Incentive to Invest: How education affects economic growth, we found a very significant relationship between improvements in education and growth. In our model, a 10 per cent increase in TIMSS Advanced test scores generates a long-term 0.85 per cent increase in annual economic growth. We argue that getting more children into independent schools through vouchers may be the easiest way
Some of what David Smith, author of the essential Economic Outlook column in the Sunday Times, says today will be salve to George Osborne: ‘…the government intended to spend £722bn in the 2013-14 fiscal year. In fact, it spent £714bn. Spending has been lower each year than set out in 2010. Current spending was originally intended to be £679bn in 2013-14. In fact, it was £668bn. Unusually for any government, spending has come in comfortably within budget. There has been no slippage.’ Other parts will not: ‘Where there has been slippage is in tax receipts, which have been weaker than expected. A small amount of that was due to deliberate
What were Labour thinking? Against the background of Ukraine and Gaza, the only domestic story likely to cut through is an economic one. The news today is dominated by David Cameron, George Osborne and Nick Clegg wallowing in the success of the British economy. So what did Ed Miliband do? He made a speech about presentation for the Westminster village, of course. The SAS is on standby to land in Ukraine, Gaza crumbles and the IMF gives the UK a gold star for economic performance; but, look over there, Ed’s got something to say about the political-media nexus! Miliband’s war on photo-ops is utterly laughable given that it came just
The economy is now, at last, larger than its pre-recession peak. The coalition parties are keen to claim vindication this morning. Nick Clegg has declared that ‘The rescue has worked’ and used today’s numbers to justify the Liberal Democrat’s decision to go into coalition. While George Osborne is celebrating a ‘major milestone in our long term economic plan’. But he’s also keen to warn that ‘there is still a long way to go’ and to emphasise that ‘the mistakes of the past’ must not be repeated. In other words, don’t let Labour back in. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/okYiQ/index.html”] Political symbolism aside, GDP is still lower in per capita terms today than it
Labour will launch its summer campaign later today. The centre-piece is Ed Miliband’s speech. He will present a ‘big choice’ to the British public, arguing that they cannot afford 5 more years of Conservative rule. Miliband’s argument is simple: the economy is broken, only we can fix it; the NHS is threatened, only we can save it; the Tories represent the few, only we care for the many. You will have heard these mantras many times before; but, this time, the presentation is different. The speech bears the mark of David Axelrod, who is busy ‘reframing’ Ed Miliband as an honest yeoman of the shires rather than a metropolitan oddball. Rafael
‘Perhaps I should shift my prediction to 23 July 2014,’ I wrote in April 2012. ‘That’s the opening of the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, and we must all start thinking positively about it.’ I was talking about the moment when the nation would at last shake off its economic gloom, which I had previously pinned to the opening of the London Olympics. But that spring we fell back into negative GDP territory (avoiding a technical two-quarter ‘double dip’ only when the first-quarter result was revised upwards to zero) and I felt obliged to ‘elasticate my timetable’. Since the beginning of last year we have had 18 months of robust growth
If you’re walking through any built-up area in England between 8 and 10pm this Sunday and you hear a cheer you can be pretty sure it means one thing – Germany have scored yet again. One of the great myths we were fed as children in the 1980s and ‘90s was that the English don’t like the Germans, and in particular the living representatives of all things Teutonic on earth, the German national football team. We love ‘em, and I imagine most English people will be supporting Germany on Sunday. I remember being stuck in the countryside in 2006 and watching the Argentina-Germany quarter-final in a pub; the place went
If you walk around our great northern cities, you’ll see stunning examples of civic pride. Albert Square in Manchester and Leeds Town Hall reflect resurgent local confidence. Old narratives of northern decline are out of date. When Guardian writer Andy Beckett launched a hatchet job on the north-east a few weeks ago, claiming that the region was the ‘next Detroit’, the response was visceral and immediate. Beckett managed to write an entire article about the north-east without mentioning Nissan – the most productive car plant in Europe. The North is home to new tech hubs, advanced manufacturing, superb universities and world-leading culture, from sport to music to art. The north-east
Fresh from celebrating the Tories’ victory in Newark, George Osborne is continuing a very joyful day by celebrating the International Monetary Fund admitting that it got it wrong on austerity. Christine Lagarde today conceded that ‘we underestimated the growth of the UK economy in our growth forecast a year ago’. The report the IMF published today contains its usual mix of things that all parties can celebrate: plenty of compliments for the Government such as ‘the economy has rebounded strongly and growth is becoming more balanced’, along with criticisms that Labour finds useful for its press releases. Osborne has very little to worry about immediately from the main criticism, which
Tax Freedom Day, which falls today, is cause for celebration. It marks the point in the calendar when someone’s income stops paying for their tax bill and they start keeping the money they have earned. It is an annual reminder that people who work hard and play by the rules deserve to keep their hard won earnings. It is why cutting tax has always been a priority for Conservatives. Four years ago we inherited a tax system that was designed to be as complicated as possible. Gordon Brown’s stealth taxes doubled the revenue the Treasury raised through taxation and National Insurance. In total, Labour put up taxes 178 times, and
Today is Tax Freedom Day. That means that the average person in Britain has to work 148 days of the year solely to pay taxes. Only on Tax Freedom Day do we at last start earning for ourselves. This year there is a faint chink of cheer, in that Tax Freedom Day falls three days earlier than it did in 2013. But we still have to labour for nearly five months just to meet the demands of the tax collectors. But what you pay in taxes this year isn’t the whole story. Remember that the government spends even more than it raises, and it borrows the difference. Despite all the
Inflation has risen for the first time in ten months, with the consumer prices index growing by 1.8 per cent in the year to April 2014, up from 1.6 per cent in March. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/09O5L/index.html”] On the surface, this looks like bad news for the Coalition, which has boasted that falling inflation shows that Ed Miliband’s cost-of-living crisis is coming to an end. And certainly Labour has tried to capitalise on the rise already, with Shadow Treasury Minister Catherine McKinnell saying: ‘These figures underline why this Tory-led government is wrong to be so complacent about the cost-of-living crisis. Wages after inflation have fallen by an average of £1,600 a year
