Dup

David Cameron might have had an enjoyable session teasing Labour at Prime Minister’s Questions, but as soon as he’d finished doing so in his head-to-head with Harriet Harman, he was reminded that winning an election with a majority that is so small means he can’t have fun all the time. Andrew Mitchell stood up to press the Prime Minister on human rights reform, expressing concern about any moves to leave the European Convention on human rights: ‘My right hon. Friend will be well aware that there is considerable concern on both sides of the House at the proposition that Britain might withdraw from the European convention on human rights. Will

For the past few days the BBC website has had an interactive game where you have to build your own coalition, using a series of possible results from tomorrow’s election. It ought to be marketed as an educational test, far more challenging even than Michael Gove’s rigorous school tests. But finally, I think I have done it. I have worked out the only possible way to build a viable government using the composition of the House of Commons which the polls appear to be predicting. Take Nate Silver’s analysis of the polls this morning, which predicts the following: Tories 281 seats, Labour 266, SNP 52, LibDem 26, DUP 8, Sinn

Nigel Dodds, the Democratic Unionist Party leader at Westminster, is reflecting drolly on his party’s recent popularity: ‘I certainly think that the last year or two has been remarkable in the number of new friends we have encountered, people who are very keen to have a cup of tea or chat to you or whatever. I don’t put it all down to our natural charm.’ As pre-election talk of political pacts thickens — with both Conservatives and Labour angling for support — former House of Commons wallflowers have found their dance cards increasingly full. Which of the main parties might feel like a more natural ally? I ask. Dodds won’t

Jonathan Freedland has written a compelling column on the challenge that Ed Miliband will face to establish his legitimacy if he becomes Prime Minister despite Labour not having won the most seats or votes. But I suspect that whoever becomes the government after May the 8th will have difficulty in persuading everyone that they have a right to govern. The Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition could claim that 59 per cent of voters had backed its constituent parts. It also had a comfortable majority in the House of Commons with 364 out of 650 seats. Now, unless something dramatic happens, no governing combination is likely to have anything like that kind of

A recent email from Samantha Cameron started an intriguing debate in the Prime Minister’s social circle. It was an invitation to a Christmas party at Chequers and word quickly spread on the Notting Hill grapevine that the PM was convening an unusually large gathering of friends at his country retreat. So, the guests wondered: were they being asked around because the Camerons were having a last hurrah at Chequers, sensing that they would be evicted by the electorate? Or was the bash being thrown because they were in celebratory mood, convinced that the political tide has turned their way? This confusion is understandable. We might only be three months away

Commons inheritance Emily Benn, granddaughter of Tony and niece of Hilary, has won the right to stand for Labour in Croydon South. Which party produces the most political dynasties? Current MPs who had a parent in the Commons: CONSERVATIVE James Arbuthnot, Richard Benyon, Dominic Grieve, Ben Gummer, Nick Hurd, Andrew Mitchell, Nicholas Soames, Mark Pawsey, Laura Sandys, Robin Walker, Bill Wiggin LABOUR Hilary Benn, John Cryer, Lindsay Hoyle, Anas Sawar, Andy Sawford, Alison Seabeck d.u.p. Ian Paisley Jnr Air scares The loss of a second Malaysian Airways airliner means that the number of worldwide casualties in civilian air disasters — 827 so far this year — has already exceeded that

Last Thursday was a dreadful night for the Unionists in Ulster. Six months of unionist divisions, dissent and defections culminated in a near decimation of the Unionist vote. There was an 8.7 percent against the DUP, whose self-induced crisis was embodied by Peter Robinson’s humiliating defeat. The Ulster Unionists have been eradicated. Slyvia Hermon was one of many to resist Sir Reg Empey’s pact with the Tories and overall there was a 2.7 percent swing against the party. Infighting will prevail. The anti-Conservative Michael McGimpsey is apparently in the mix to succeed Empey. Blame must be apportioned to the Conservatives’ efforts to create a non-sectarian centre-right alliance in Ulster. Secular

Reg Empey may yet oust the DUP’s William McCrea in South Antrim, but the indications are that the UUP and Tory alliance will not win a seat. The Tories will have to rely on co-operation with the DUP. In truth, competition between three Unionist parties has left the Unionist cause divided. The TUV’s Jim Allister is giving the DUP’s Ian Paisley Jr a close race in North Antrim. Robinson’s DUP will emerge the largest Unionist party in Ulster, but with a point to prove to voters who are keen to protect Northern Ireland’s bloated public sector and generous funding. Conservative he may be, but Robinson is an Ulsterman first and

The electoral map that most of the broadcasters use misses off Northern Ireland entirely. But if the election is as close as people expect, then those 18 seats across the Irish Sea could become vital.   The first thing to note is that Sinn Fein remains committed to its policy of not taking its seats at Westminster. So every Sinn Fein MP elected reduces the number that a party needs to have an effective majority in the Commons. Iris Robinson, expenses and the rise of Traditional Unionist Voice have all rather dented the DUP, the largest party in Northern Ireland at the last election. But it should still send back

The Telegraph reports that a Conservative minority government would rely on an ‘informal understanding’ with Unionist MPs and that David Cameron is preparing the ground for co-operation.  It’s a courageous plan, in the Sir Humphrey sense.  Many journalists argue that Cameron has a duty to preserve the Union. Certainly he does, but his overtures to the Ulster Unionists have been self-defeating. There is an assumption that the Unionist parties are conservative. Besides conserving the Union, they are not. Back in February, I reported that the Tory alliance with Reg Empey was serving only to eviscerate the UUP, as its socialist and social democratic factions revolted against Tory alignment. Sylvia Hermon,