Douglas carswell

Gunpowder, treason and caviar – selling out in Westminster, Guido style

If you’re going to sell out to the establishment, you might as well do so on an industrial scale. As the PM told the Guido Fawkes blog’s ten -ear anniversary party at the Institute of Directors last night, via video link, ‘what better way’ to celebrate ‘rejecting’ the cosy political classes than a posh dinner of caviar and champagne in the heart of Westminster. Guy Fawkes would have been turning in his grave, as cabinet ministers including Francis Maude and Liz Truss, and mysterious billionaires such as Michael Hintze and Lord Ashcroft, along with 200 of Westminster’s finest, came to pay homage to a decade of sniping from waspish troublemakers.

Cameron could win in 2015 if he took EU withdrawal seriously … but he won’t

Imagine if David Cameron actually meant it. Imagine if he really did follow through with his implied threat to campaign for Brexit in the absence of better terms from Brussels. You can picture the televised address. An oak-panelled background with a large union flag hanging sedately in the corner, the PM with that furrowed house-captain expression he sometimes does. The script pretty much writes itself. ‘All of you know how hard I tried to secure a new deal. I was often criticised for being too conciliatory, but it was my duty to do whatever was in my power to reform the EU. I have to tell you today that the

Portrait of the week | 16 October 2014

Home Checks began at British airports for passengers who might have come from west Africa with Ebola fever (even though there are no direct flights from the countries most affected). People who rang 111 with suspicious symptoms were to be asked whether they’d come from a high-risk country. Police arrested three men and three women from Portsmouth, Farnborough and Greenwich as part of an anti-terrorism operation. Of five men arrested the week before, two were released. The trial began before a jury at the Old Bailey of Erol Incedal on charges of preparing for acts of terrorism; parts of it will be held in secret. Ofsted said that ‘very little

James Forsyth

Ukip is here to stay – especially if Labour wins

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Lord Pearson and Damian Green discuss Ukip and the Tories” startat=81] Listen [/audioplayer]British politics is rather like one of those playground games of football where one match is being played lengthways and another sideways. The two regularly get tangled up, making it very hard to work out what is happening. This dynamic in politics will continue all the way to polling day because an electoral system designed for a straight two-way contest is now having to accommodate a four-way fight. First past the post coped reasonably well with three-party politics. When a coalition was needed in 2010, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats could put together a comfortable

The Spectator’s portrait of the week

Home Checks began at British airports for passengers who might have come from west Africa with Ebola fever (even though there are no direct flights from the countries most affected). People who rang 111 with suspicious symptoms were to be asked whether they’d come from a high-risk country. Police arrested three men and three women from Portsmouth, Farnborough and Greenwich as part of an anti-terrorism operation. Of five men arrested the week before, two were released. The trial began before a jury at the Old Bailey of Erol Incedal on charges of preparing for acts of terrorism; parts of it will be held in secret. Ofsted said that ‘very little

James Forsyth

Miliband takes on Cameron over Freud; Ukip gets a dig on recall

When Ed Miliband started speaking at PMQs today you could tell straight away that he had a foul sore throat. Combine that with the promising unemployment figures out today and Miliband forgetting two key chunks of his conference speech, and there was clear potential for the session to get very tricky for him. But Miliband had come to the Chamber armed with a series of hard questions for Cameron to answer about what Lord Freud, one of his welfare ministers had set at a fringe meeting at Tory conference. Freud apparently said that disabled people were not worth the minimum wage and that if they wanted to work for £2

Watch: Douglas Carswell re-enters the House of Commons as a Ukip MP

Douglas Carswell has just re-entered the House of Commons as a Ukip MP. Nigel Farage was in the peers’ gallery to watch his first elected MP take his seat. So were many Tory MPs, who watched Carswell walk through the Chamber in deadly silence. If Mark Reckless does win the Rochester by-election, how to receive him in the Chamber will be the least of MPs’ concerns. MPs tell me there had been much debate beforehand about how to receive Carswell. There was no formal instruction from the whips, but the consensus was that it would be more dignified to remain silent. Some had considered booing, but others pointed out that

Podcast special: The Ukip earthquake

Ukip has arrived at Westminster. Douglas Carswell held his Clacton seat after defecting from the Conservatives, and in Heywood and Middleton Ukip came just 617 votes short of victory. Which was the more startling result, and what does it all mean for the parties’ chances at the general election? Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss in this View from 22 podcast special: listen to ‘Podcast: Ukip’s Clacton victory’ on audioBoom

James Forsyth

Ukip’s breakthrough night

Ukip has won its first by-election: Douglas Carswell is the party’s first elected MP. In a stunning night for the party, it also ran Labour mighty close in Heywood and Middleton—coming in just 617 votes behind. listen to ‘Douglas Carswell’s Clacton victory speech’ on audioBoom

Damian Thompson

Ukip is a disaster for Labour. And then there’s Scotland…

Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I’m interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here’s something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum. The SNP won’t take safe Labour seats: they’re hugely behind – we’re talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner

Ukip wins Clacton from the Tories and runs Labour mighty close in Heywood & Middleton

2.50am Douglas Carswell’s victory speech, after winning a 12,404 majority, was not triumphalist: there was no tub-thumping. Instead, he said that Ukip must be the party of 1st and 2nd generation Britons, that its passion must be tempered by compassion and argued that the era of dominant cartel was coming to an end in everything from banking to politics. listen to ‘Douglas Carswell’s Clacton victory speech’ on audioBoom 2.45 Ukip win Clacton, Douglas Carswell is Ukip’s first elected MP with more than 60% of the vote 2.35am Result coming very soon now 2.15 The BBC’s Chris Mason is reporting that Douglas Carswell will have a 12 thousand plus majority, a quite remarkable

Steerpike

New party, same old politics for Douglas Carswell

Douglas Carswell is not like normal politicians; he’s authentic, genuine and in touch with real people. Or so the spin goes. So what was today’s by-election-day stunt at a polling station in Clacton all about? Emerging with his thumbs up, Ukip’s soon-to-be-MP for Clacton looked every inch the candidate, taking part in the usual election-day voting photocall. Except Carswell is not eligible to vote in the constituency, as he lives in Fulham and rents a house that falls just outside the boundary of the seat. And surely the authentic and genuine Mr Carswell did not deliberately leave the village where he really lives off of the statement-of-persons document that anyone

Isabel Hardman

Nigel Farage’s Krakatoa day arrives

Tonight Clacton is set to return the first elected Ukip MP to the House of Commons. The Conservatives have already tried to factor in Douglas Carswell’s defection as something they can cope with – and this has been made quite a lot easier by the tribal anger that Mark Reckless provoked when he announced he was doing the same thing. But the consequences for Ukip of having an MP in terms of their appeal to the electorate are not so easily dismissed. They can now tell voters they really are a serious party, rather than a bunch of no-hopers. Nigel Farage sees it as a ‘Krakatoa’ moment. And one important

Tories ready for tough by-election fight

When Douglas Carswell defected, many Tory MPs were quick to say that an aggressive campaign against him would be counter-productive. There is none of that talk today. listen to ‘Podcast special: Mark Reckless defects to Ukip’ on audioBoom Listening to Tories this afternoon one is struck by how so many of them view the Reckless defection as different to the Carswell one. They point out Carswell didn’t regularly deny that he was going to defect in the way that Reckless did. Reckless’s timing is also far more clearly designed to hurt the Tory party than Carswell’s was. Judging by the conversations I’ve had this afternoon, the whips won’t find it

Nigel Farage concedes Ukip won’t win Heywood and Middleton by-election

Not long after John Bickley had appealed to Ukip delegates to help him win in Heywood and Middleton, Nigel Farage conceded that it wasn’t going to happen. In a briefing with journalists after his speech (the Ukip leader is very generous with his time for the London-based media establishment, far more so than any other leading politician), he said: ‘I think it’s too big a mountain to climb in that short a space of time, and I think the Labour party is saying that because they’ve got a very divided local party, they’re not happy with the candidate, they can’t get anyone out to canvass, and when they put the

Isabel Hardman

The by-election battles have begun over Clacton and Heywood

Douglas Carswell has just finished speaking at the Ukip conference and his fellow by-election contender John Bickley, who is standing in Heywood and Middleton on the same day, has just given a short address too. He told the hall that ‘the dam is ready to burst’ and asked for members to pop in before they went to Clacton. Labour sources were last week claiming that their chance of holding onto the seat was looking shaky, which was read by many as an attempt to get their activists and MPs to take the fight seriously. But I hear that there is a fierce debate going on in Ukip between those who

Cameron must reunite the Tories or lose the next election

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_25_Sept_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Freddy Gray, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth on Cameron’s radicalism” startat=70] Listen [/audioplayer]No one goes to Birmingham to revive a marriage. But that is what David Cameron and the Conservative party must do next week at conference. They must find a way to put the passion back into their relationship, to learn to trust each other again ahead of the general election. For neither can win without the other next May. That election is there to be won. The Labour gathering in Manchester this week was not one of a party convinced that it is going to surge to victory in a few months. The atmosphere was subdued,

Portrait of the week | 4 September 2014

Home Britain’s terror threat level was raised from ‘substantial’ to ‘severe’ in response to fighting in Iraq and Syria, meaning that an attack on Britain was ‘highly likely’. Three days later, David Cameron, the Prime Minister, in a hesitant statement to the Commons, proposed that: police should be able to seize temporarily at the border the passports of people travelling overseas; there should be all-party talks on drawing up powers to prevent suspected British terrorists returning to Britain; those under terrorism prevention and investigation measures (Tpims) should be subject to ‘stronger locational constraints’. The Celtic Manor Resort (rooms from £77), near Junction 24 on the M4 outside Newport, prepared to accommodate

James Forsyth

Can the Tory party locate its secret weapon?

It used to be said that loyalty was the Tory party’s secret weapon. But this supposed strength hasn’t been very apparent in recent years. Indeed, at times, it seems that the Tory party hasn’t quite recovered from the demons unleashed by Margaret Thatcher’s ouster twenty-odd years ago.   Douglas Carswell’s defection means that Westminster, when it is not panicking about the Scottish referendum, is chuntering about whether his move to Ukip is the harbinger of a bigger Tory split to come, one that The Spectator explores this week. Worryingly for the Tory loyalists, there are people on all sides of the party are preparing for this fight.  As one Tory