Diplomacy

Sunday

Daniel Korski

How the IMF might save Afghanistan from its leaders

The International Monetary Fund used to be hated, blamed for the privatisation programmes it imposed across the world in exchange for loans. Then it spent a decade in relative obscurity. Now, as countries like Greece are forced to beg for loans, the Bretton Woods institution has again become a popular bogeyman. Every Greek protester thinks that all would be well if only their government had a Love, Actually moment and told the IMF where to go. But the IMF — with its hard-nosed, unsentimental policies — is often what is needed to save governments from themselves. Take Afghanistan. As The Guardian reported yesterday, the Afghan government will struggle to pay

Saturday

Daniel Korski

Cameron vs Kirchner

After stating the obvious at PMQs this week — that the Falklands would remain sovereign British territory as long as they want to be — David Cameron has come under heavy fire from the Argentine President, Cristina Kirchner. As today’s papers report, she yesterday described our PM as “arrogant,” and said his comments were an “expression of mediocrity and almost of stupidity”. But there is nothing new in the British position, which has always been that there can be no negotiations over sovereignty unless and until such a time as the Falkland Islanders so wish. The issue has recently heated up after the United States sided with Argentina in demanding

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Retreating from Kabul

Britain’s former envoy to Kabul, Sherard Cowper-Coles, has written an op-ed about NATO’s coming withdrawal from Afghanistan in this morning’s Times (£). The unspoken analysis is that: having failed to defeat the Taliban unconditionally in battle, it will be hard to secure peace and stability. Like Matt Cavanagh, who wrote an extensive report on the situation in Afghanistan for Coffee House last week, Cowper-Coles says that NATO is split between ‘shooters’, who perpetually ask for one more ‘big push’, and politicians, who are seeking negotiated settlement and military drawdown. Cowper-Coles gives a diplomatic angle, arguing that NATO must first prove it is serious about peace if the Taliban are to

Saturday

Daniel Korski

Unseating Gaddafi

The pressure is being turned up on Colonel Gaddafi, but it may still take a while to have an effect. The Libyan dictator retains some form of power and has told the only person who has been granted access to see him, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma, that he intends to stay on in Libya. He wants a ceasefire before anything else is discussed. The rebels in Benghazi, meanwhile, want him to go before anything else is discussed. And so the bombing goes on. At the UN, people talk of negotiated settlement, fearing that chaos would follow Gaddafi’s killing. That may be true, but there has been little evidence so far

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Egypt’s revolution – six months on

I’m back in Cairo to find out where the revolution of 25 January has got to. Nearly six months after Hosni Mubarak’s downfall, the transition from authoritarianism is well under way. There is one immediate difference from my last visit: the absence of army check-points. Police officers in new white suits stand on street corners but the heavy military presence from before has gone. The Cairo police, who were absent after the revolution, have returned in new white uniforms. However, the military – or SCAF, as it styles itself – is very much still in charge, dictating how the democratic process will continue. I remain of the view I articulated

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Grading Obama’s visit

It was a good state visit. Actually, it has been an excellent visit. Much better than George W Bush’s and even Barack Obama’s 2009 trip to London. The US president got his photo with Wills ‘n’ Kate. The Prime Minister got his presidential high-fives. There were some odd points. The personal chemistry between David Cameron and Barack Obama made the ping-pong match better than it would naturally have been. For, let’s be honest, table tennis is not a natural US-UK sport. There were policy differences between the two leaders too, for example on Libya and deficit reduction. In the end, though, the way to judge visits is not to think

Thursday

David Blackburn

MacShane’s contradictory testimony to the Iraq Inquiry

A trickle of documents from the Chilcot Inquiry have been released today, among which is the written witness statement of former Europe Minister Denis MacShane. It’s rather intriguing. MacShane told the inquiry that it was his understanding that France ‘would not leave the US, Britain and other allies alone in any action against Saddam’ and that President Chirac then vetoed military action in the UN at the stroke of the twelfth hour, apparently against the wishes of his colleagues and France’s political establishment. MacShane says he gained this impression after speaking to a senior French official at the Anglo-French summit at Le Touquet on 4 February 2003, six weeks before

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Meanwhile, in Libya…

The death of Osama Bin Laden may be a very arresting punctuation mark in the conflict against tyranny — but the conflict continues nevertheless, not least in Libya. The latest news from the country is that the rebels are maintaining their fragile hold on the port town of Misrata, although Western agencies are still struggling to send in aid and relief supplies. “We have seven ICU beds and eleven cases,” is how one hospital worker puts it to Channel 4’s Alex Thomson. “What is Nato doing? What is the world doing? If any more people come here they will die.” In political terms, there has been one significant development today:

Friday

Daniel Korski

Street party … in Tirana

Wedding-themed street parties are underway not only in Britain, but wherever Brits are living. I’m in Tirana in Albania where the British Embassy is hosting a street party at the Ambassador’s Residence. Union Jacks deck the tables, flowers are everywhere and the raffle table, with wedding-themed presents, is overflowing (profits will go to the Sue Ryder charity). Large TV screens are beaming that kiss to expats, diplomats and locals. Speaking to a range of people last night, it became apparent what an asset the royal family is. Everyone in Tirana was talking about the wedding. People were saying they intended watch the ceremony and even visit Britain. I’m a non-practising

Saturday

Daniel Korski

Eyes turn to Syria

The situation in Syria seems to be on a knife’s edge. Perhaps 80 protesters were killed by security forces during massive demonstrations yesterday. Checkpoints have gone up around all major cities, including Aleppo, Homs and Hama and of course Damascus. A friend who has been visiting the country this week says the situation is “pretty tense with police all around and no one, I mean almost no one on the streets. Taxis are not operating and there are no buses between cities.” The road south from Damascus to Deraa is heavily guarded to prevent the protesters moving from one city to the next. The key problem for Bashri al-Assad’s regime

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Saif Gaddafi: victim of circumstance…

There’s truth in the cliché that actions speak louder than words. Benjamin Barber, once a board member of the Saif Gaddafi Foundation, has defended his former patron in today’s Guardian. He declares: ‘I still believe that among the conflicting voices that vie for Saif’s tortured soul there is the voice of a genuine democrat and a Libyan patriot.’        Barber condemns Saif’s ‘abominable actions in the current crisis’, but remains convinced that his dalliance with democracy was genuine. Oblivious of the attendant irony, Barber cites Saif’s book, Manifesto, where the man who would later vow to fight to the death through rivers of Libyan blood wrote: ‘I believe it is

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Another one bites the dust | 12 April 2011

The conflict in the Ivory Coast looks as though it is now coming to and end. Former president Laurent Gbagbo was arrested yesterday by French officials supporting President Alassane Ouattara, after weeks of violent fighting. Gbagbo lost re-election last November to Ouattara but refused to give up power. Gbagbo, who was in office for more than a decade, will now be investigated for possible war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a momentous event. The continent’s post-independence “big men” had, over decades, become accustomed to permanent power. If they lost an election, they simply threatened (or encouraged) violence until a power-sharing deal was cobbled together which allowed them to

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Ferguson’s triumph

The last episode of Niall Ferguson’s documentary series, Civilization, has just been aired — and for those who missed it, it’s time to buy the DVD box set. Or, better still, read the book. Ferguson is, for my money, one of the most compelling, readable and original historians writing today. His books stand out for throwaway lines which can change the way you think about what’s happening now. Understanding of history shapes our politics, whether we admit it or not. And myths about history also fuel political myths. How often do we hear it said that the Great Depression came about because government didn’t borrow in the hard times? A

Thursday

Daniel Korski

How to help the rebels

The lack of weaponry is not the only problem plaguing the Libyan rebel forces. Their disordered retreat reveals that they need training, better organisation and in-theatre liaison and support. From what I saw, the Transitional Council is very well organised politically, but there is a general lack of military cohesion. Youthful volunteers and self-armed families are fighting alongside ex-loyalists. (There also seems to be a significant Muslim Brotherhood/Islamist presence, though the Council has detained a number of Al Qaeda associates.) Communications are poor because the rebels rely on mobile phones, which rarely work on the front. NATO has now taken over the air and naval mission, but it will struggle

David Blackburn

The first rat abandons ship?

Moussa Koussa, one of Gaddafi’s closest henchmen, has given himself up in Britain. He left Tripoli supposedly on a diplomatic mission, but arrived in Britain declaring that he “no longer wanted to serve the regime”. This development suggests that the regime is crumbling and pundits opine that the balance has now tipped against Colonel Gaddafi. It has also emerged that President Obama has authorised covert support to be given to the hotch-potch rebellion, which may yet prove decisive. Gaddafi will now have to make do without Koussa’s skill and clout, which may pose the Colonel a problem if he needs diplomacy to save his neck. However, Gaddafi’s blitzkrieg is still

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Libya: next steps

The Libya intervention goes on, with as many question marks hanging over the operation as airplanes in the sky. What is the aim? Who will run it? Can the United States, Britain and France keep allies such as Turkey on board? Behind the scenes, officials are said to be looking at various options, including if and how to support the rebels. But the hand-wringing is now even audible across St James Park. Realistically, the UK should in the first instance work towards establishing a stalemate between loyalists and rebels. From such a stalemate a political process can then begin, which, though it may take many years and continue during the

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Removing Gaddafi is key

The question of whether Gaddafi should be targeted and what the exit strategy should be in Libya are intimately linked. In truth, there is no exit strategy that does not involve Gaddafi’s fall from power. As long as he is there, the threat to those that the international community is now pledged to protect will remain. Even a de facto partition of Libya with Gaddafi in charge of the west and the rebels the east would require — at least — an over the horizon presence to ensure that Gaddafi did not attempt to raid across the line or invade the east. At the moment, the British government appears to

Sunday

David Blackburn

Gaddafi calls for a ceasefire, again

Sky News has footage of officials of the Gaddafi regime (if that’s not too grand a phrase) saying that the Colonel has called his armed forces to a ceasefire. This announcement has come after a day of intense air attacks on targets across Libya, including in Tripoli, where anti-aircraft guns have been called into action. It also follows the Arab League’s sudden crisis of confidence, which Gaddafi may have seen as a chance route to safety.  Statements from the MoD and Foreign Office suggest that the allies have not been perturbed by Amr Moussa’s reservations. The bombing is expected to continue. But perhaps this ceasefire, if it is honoured, will make the US,

David Blackburn

The Arab League puts a spanner in the works

According to Sky’s Tim Marshall, the Arab League is to meet in emergency session to discuss events in Libya. It seems that some of its members are opposed to the action being taken by the French, which it believes exceeds the remit of the UN Resolution for a no-fly zone. The bombing of tanks in particular has raised the ire of its General Secretary Amr Moussa. The Arab League’s assent was crucial to obtaining the Resolution, so Moussa’s reservations are significant – although quite what he thought he was agreeing to in the first place is anyone’s guess. Moussa is a probable candidate in the forthcoming Egyptian presidential election, so

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

What were the SAS doing in the eastern desert?

When the official files are opened in 30 years time, we will see what series of decisions led the government to send a helicopter-born SAS team into eastern Libya when they could have sailed in on HMS Cumberland, disguised themselves as reporters or rung up Mustafa Abdel Jalil, Libya’s ex-justice minister who is said to head the “Transitional Government”. But it is easy to see how it happened. The perfectly sensible idea of sending a British emissary to Benghazi to make contacts must have clashed with bureaucratic protocol and the FCO’s duty of care arrangements. “What?” You can just imagine the officials exclaiming to the ministers. “You intend to send