David cameron

Hilton: Brexit would be the crowning achievement of Tory modernisation

In a speech to Policy Exchange today, Steve Hilton—David Cameron’s former senior adviser—will make the case that ‘any intellectual rigorous examination makes it impossible for a Tory moderniser to support staying in the EU’. He argues that Tory modernisation was about trusting people, and that the EU does not; that modernisation was about localism, and that the EU is inherently centralising; and that the EU helps the rich and not the rest. I think there’s much to be said for Hilton’s analysis. (Though, of course, it should be recognised that there are Tory modernisers on both sides of the argument.) But where Hilton is surely right is that the EU

Tom Goodenough

Today in audio: Fallon says Putin would ‘Vote leave’

Vladimir Putin’s name has popped up again in the Brexit debate. This time, however, it wasn’t the Prime Minister suggesting that the Russian president would favour Britain leaving the EU, but the Defence Secretary. Michael Fallon said Putin would ‘Vote Leave’ and he also told a Commons select committee that ‘there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that a British exit from the European Union would be applauded in Moscow’. He added that it would be a ‘payday for Putin’: Michael Fallon went on to say that being in the EU ensured that Russia had ‘paid the price’ for its intervention in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister gave a

Tom Goodenough

So what if Brexit briefly raises the cost of a family holiday, Prime Minister?

Nicola Sturgeon urged the Government yesterday to lay off the ‘Project Fear’ strategy and instead focus on spelling out the positive reasons for remaining in the EU. Unfortunately, it seems it’ll take the Prime Minister some time to heed that advice. Cameron will warn today that Brexit would ramp up the price of a holiday. He’ll argue later that: ‘The choice facing the British people on 23 June is increasingly clear: the certainty and economic security of remaining in the EU, or a leap in the dark that would raise prices – including the cost of a family holiday. All the evidence points to the value of the pound falling

There are Tory modernisers supporting Brexit — just ask Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton coming out so strongly for Brexit is important for two reasons. First, it is a reminder that the idea that, within the Tory party, this referendum is the modernisers versus the right is far too crude. There are Tory modernisers on both sides of this argument. Indeed, given the importance of localism to Tory modernisation and its appreciation that there’s a difference between being pro-big business and pro-market, there are thoroughly modernising reasons for wanting the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. Hilton also details how it was the experience of government that tipped many Tories into backing Brexit. It was the discovery of just how much

Isabel Hardman

Post-referendum, will David Cameron accept that all’s fair in love and war?

This weekend’s public spat between David Cameron and Penny Mordaunt about whether Britain can stop the accession of new countries such as Turkey into the European Union looks like just another row in the referendum campaign. Every day one figure on one side makes a claim that riles the other side, and a war of press releases and broadcast interviews ensues. But this particular row doesn’t just tell us a lot about where the two camps are in the campaign, but also makes a considerable difference both to the campaign and to the aftermath of the vote. Firstly, it is clear that the Tory party is going to take a

Steerpike

David Cameron’s former adviser Steve Hilton backs Brexit

Although David Cameron is keen to suggest of late that the dubious bunch backing Brexit includes Vladimir Putin and Isis, he may have more trouble brushing aside the latest figure to support Leave. The Prime Ministers former director of strategy Steve Hilton has penned an article for the Daily Mail in which he reveals why Britain ‘must’ quit the EU. Hilton — who is one of Cameron’s closest friends — says the UK is ‘literally ungovernable’ as a democracy while it remains in the EU: ‘I believe it is [about] taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs – in people’s hands.’ Hilton also takes aim at

Tom Goodenough

The Treasury dishes up more Brexit fearmongering. Will it work?

It’s now exactly one month until the EU referendum and the Treasury has marked the moment with another economic warning about the consequences of Brexit. The analysis out today claims that walking away from the European Union would kick-start a year-long recession. Brexit would also lower the country’s economic growth down by 3.6 per cent, according to the analysis. Although George Osborne must be nearing the point of running out of words to describe the economic ramifications of Brexit, in an article in the Daily Telegraph, Osborne and Cameron had this to say: ‘It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy. The analysis

The Boris, Cameron ruck over EU

David Cameron and Boris Johnson are the two biggest beasts in the Tory jungle. But they are currently involved in an increasingly undignified scrap over Brexit. As I say in The Sun today, it is hard to see how it ends well for both of them or the Tory party.  As one Cabinet Minister lamented to me recently, ‘it is a personal fight’ between Cameron and Boris and that ‘the Conservative party is on a hiding to nothing.’ Boris and Brexit is the itch that Cameron can’t resist scratching. When Iain Dale asked him about Boris going Out, Cameron—in effect—accused the former Mayor of putting his personal ambition ahead of

Brits are worried that the economy will tank – but still wouldn’t trust Labour with it

Amid all the fun and games of the EU referendum campaign, the polls suggest that economic anxiety is growing, along with concern about the government’s economic management. Voters are worried, but they don’t think Labour would do any better. Economic optimism has fallen to its lowest level since March 2013, and only 18 per cent believe the economy will improve over the next year. Many more are pessimistic. It’s worth noting that this isn’t necessarily a sign of a slump because for most of this century – long before the Crash of 2008, the public were pessimistic about the economy – even though it grew after year after year. However, it is normally unhelpful news for

The bookmakers are giving up on the chances of Brexit

The EU referendum is only weeks away and while the pollsters aren’t offering much certainty about the result, on the betting markets it’s a different story. Bookies have seen a very substantial swing toward Remain over the last few days. The odds on the UK staying in Europe have collapsed from 1/3 last week to 1/5 today. This shows that the chances of Brexit are now at a new low of just 21 per cent compared to the giddy heights of 40 per cent at the end of 2015. On balance, the polls have probably been better for Remain recently, but there’s still a lot of variance, with some surveys still

Lies, damned lies and…

A Ryanair plane in a Stansted hangar was not the best backdrop for George Osborne’s claim that the economic argument about the European Union is now over and that his ‘consensus’ has prevailed. In recent years, Ryanair has lost its status as the fastest-growing budget airline in Europe: that honour goes to Norwegian Air, which has thrived outside the EU. And on the day of the Chancellor’s speech, a group of Ryanair passengers had announced their intention to take out a lawsuit against the company for what they see as unfair tricks to disguise the true cost of tickets. The Chancellor does the reverse of Ryanair: he tries to frighten

Isabel Hardman

Government accepts rebel amendment on Queen’s Speech to stave off defeat

So Number 10 has yielded and decided to stave off the Queen’s Speech rebellion by accepting the rebel amendment to it, thereby stopping the first defeat of a government on its legislative programme since 1924. A spokesman said: ‘As we’ve said all along, there is no threat to the NHS from TTIP. So if this amendment is selected, we’ll accept it.’ So job done, rebellion gone. But it is still a bloody nose for the government from eurosceptics, who are forcing the Prime Minister and the rest of the executive to support something that regrets that they failed to table a bill exempting the NHS from something they have been

James Forsyth

Don’t rule out a second referendum

As the Queen read out her government’s agenda on Wednesday morning, David Cameron could have been forgiven for thinking about his place in history. What will he be remembered for, other than having held the office? The so-called ‘life chances’ strategy is intended to be a central plank of his legacy. He wants to be able to say that he made Britain more ‘socially just’. Indeed, this is his principal reason for wanting to stay in No. 10 for a few more years. Cameron loyalists hope he’ll be remembered as the leader who made the Tories the natural party of government again. The man who moved them on from Thatcherism

Tory MPs mull cautious Queen’s Speech

The quiet Queen’s Speech seems largely to have underwhelmed Tory MPs – though they do predict a number of sticky moments in the Commons over the coming months. Most I have spoken to describe it as ‘pretty bare’, though they also understand why the Prime Minister isn’t trying anything particularly ambitious at this stage ‘Why waste initiatives when no-one is listening?’ asks one. Another anti-Cameron MP describes the content rather more bluntly as ‘uninspiring, managerialist and vacuous’. There will be flashpoints on the Bill of Rights and the Investigatory Powers Bill, something the whips are hard at work on. They hope that on the latter, any funny business by Labour

James Forsyth

The Queen’s Speech contained some post-referendum salve

The Queen’s Speech today provides the agenda which David Cameron will turn to post-referendum to try and unite the Tory party. The social reforms proposed are important. Cameron hopes that they will be a central plank of his legacy, which is why he wants to stay in Number 10 for a few more years yet. In terms of post-referendum unity, it is helpful that prison reform is at the centre of this social reform programme—as Michael Gove, the most prominent Cabinet outer, is the man in charge of it. A lot of this agenda is about, as the speech put it, helping the ‘hardest to reach’ in society. As one Cameron loyalist

Steerpike

Watch: Jeremy Corbyn gives Cameron the cold shoulder at the Queen’s Speech

Today’s Queen’s Speech was always going to be a difficult event for the Prime Minister. With the EU referendum looming, David Cameron needed to give the impression that his party remains united and focussed on the good of the country. Still, Mr S suspects he didn’t bargain on the walk to hear the Queen’s speech proving to be one of the most difficult parts of his day. A toe-curling segment of the BBC’s coverage showed Cameron and Corbyn walking alongside one another. While Cameron appears to begin conversation with the Labour leader several times, Corbyn is having none of it. ‘It rather looks like David Cameron’s trying to make polite conversation and Jeremy

Isabel Hardman

What David Cameron is trying to tell us with this Queen’s Speech

What is the point of today’s Queen’s Speech? The government’s legislative programme for the year is being briefed as light and safe, given the ructions in the Tory party over Europe and David Cameron’s tiny majority. But it is also being briefed as a social justice speech, one focused on getting on with the important reforms to improve the life chances of disadvantaged people. The main story is the reforms to the prison system, which will be carried out by Michael Gove and include ‘in-cell technology’ such as iPads to help prisoners learn independently (a far cry from the ‘book ban’ over which Gove’s predecessor Chris Grayling tussled with the criminal

Tory MPs get physical over the EU referendum

Although it was already evident to many that relations in the Tory party are far from rosy thanks to the upcoming EU referendum, it seems tensions are higher than anyone first anticipated. In today’s edition of The Times, Rachel Sylvester’s column — titled ‘The Tories need a new breed of modernisers’ — includes a curious anecdote. Sylvester says that one Brexit-backing Tory MP attempted to trip up a minister in the members’ lobby in frustration after the minister plumped for In: ‘Some are almost literally coming to blows: one minister says a Brexiteer tried to trip him up in the members’ lobby of the Commons after he announced he would be backing

Tory unity after the referendum is looking increasingly difficult

One of the big questions about the EU referendum campaign is whether the Tory leadership is running its campaign in such a way as to make it impossible to stitch the party back together again after the result on 23 June. The Prime Minister’s colleagues concerned with party management who work in Number 10 and the whips’ office are certainly very agitated about the mood in the party, with a number of pro-Brexit ministers appearing to conclude that they have burned their bridges irreparably. This has led their colleagues to worry that there will be a large group of ministers and backbenchers after a ‘Remain’ vote who still try to

Merkel says Brexit would bring “instability” to Europe. A bit like her migrant crisis

Each week before June 23, I would like to nominate a ridiculous comment of the week. With the amount of folk around claiming that Britain’s exit from the EU would herald World War III, pestilence, famine and every other horseman of the apocalypse, there is no shortage of candidates. At the beginning of last week I rather assumed that David Cameron would win for attempting to posthumously recruit the British dead of Two World Wars to  the cause of the EU, claiming that the fallen had laid down their lives solely in order that Britain should not to be sovereign.  But then the PM’s predecessor, Gordon Brown, stepped up in the middle of the week