Covid

With case rates falling and Omicron (hopefully) in decline, it’s a good time to remember some of the more hysterical predictions about the last Covid variant. For the South African doctor who discovered the Omicron strain has today given an interview to German newspaper Welt in which she reveals she was ‘pressured’ into describing the variant as more dangerous than it really is. Dr Angelique Coetzee was one of the first to report the new variant in November last year and said it caused ‘mild’ symptoms for those in her country. But she claims she was told by scientists and politicians from around the globe that her description was wrong – and specifically

Did lockdowns save lives? We will never have a definitive answer to this vital question because it was impossible to conduct controlled experiments — we don’t have two identical countries, one where lockdown was imposed and one where it wasn’t. Nor is it easy to compare similar countries, for the simple reason that every country in the world — bar Comoros in the Indian Ocean — reacted to Covid by introducing at least one non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by the end of March 2020. There was no clear link between lockdown stringency and fewer deaths in the spring of 2020, A team from Johns Hopkins University has, however, assessed the many

That Boris Johnson regards the Gray update as an opportunity to come up for air was very clear from his statement on the report in the Commons. The Prime Minister’s opening remarks struck what seemed to be a reasonable balance between apologising, offering some operational changes to No. 10 (to show he was taking the report’s recommendations for ‘learning’ seriously) and trying to buoy up Tory MPs with a reminder of what his government was achieving. Brexit, freeports and the comparatively early end to Covid restrictions all came up. He might have been pleased with himself as he commended his statement to the House, but things went downhill after that. The

Given that lockdown was very nearly ordered on the advice of Sage last month, it’s worth keeping an eye on the ‘scenarios’ it published, and how they compare to the situation today. Another week of data offers more food for thought. This week was the period when deaths were supposed to be peaking – so given that no extra restrictions were ordered, it’s interesting to compare the peak the models predicted for this week with what actually happened. Deaths were said by Sage to peak at anything from 600 to 6,000 a day (the latter figure, predictably, hogged the headlines). But on Saturday 262 deaths were reported in England, and

Omicron peaked in England in early January, according to figures just released by the ONS. The estimates from the weekly infection survey show that cases in the UK peaked at around four million before falling. In the week ending 15 January, 1 in 20 had Covid in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 1 in 25 in Wales. We shouldn’t be surprised by this We shouldn’t be surprised by this — this is how Omicron seems to go world over. As in Gauteng, as in South Africa, as in Lambeth, as in London and now in the UK: it falls almost as fast as it rises. Quite simply, the variant is so infectious that it quickly

It seems that Boris Johnson has adopted something of a curious approach to Covid regulations. No, not the Downing Street parties, but rather his attitude towards self-isolation. For the PM’s official spokesman revealed yesterday that one of Johnson’s relatives — either his wife Carrie or one of the children he has living at Downing Street — has tested positive for Covid, meaning that he will not be making any appearances until next week. The embattled Tory leader will instead remain in No. 10 as he fights to save his crumbling premiership, conducting mainly virtual meetings until next Wednesday. His spokesperson told lobby hacks that: In line with the guidance, he’s reducing contacts, he’ll be working from No. 10, doing the

On 20 May 2020, the Metropolitan Police issued a statement on social media which summed up the conditions in the country. ‘Have you been enjoying the hottest day of the year so far?’ it asked. ‘You can relax, have a picnic, exercise or play sport, as long as you are: on your own, with people you live with or just you and one other person.’ To do otherwise, it didn’t have to say, would be a criminal offence. In 10 Downing Street, however, Boris Johnson’s principal private secretary sent out a very different message to more than 100 staff members. ‘Make the most of the lovely weather,’ it said, and

There has been no good news for Boris Johnson today. After an email leaked on Monday evening showing that the Prime Minister’s Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds invited over 100 staff to a drinks party in the No. 10 garden in May 2020, the Prime Minister has come under fire from his own side. Downing Street has refused to deny reports that both Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie were present at the event. Instead, all No. 10 will say is that Sue Gray’s inquiry into alleged Covid rule breaking at various Downing Street parties is ongoing.  The atmosphere in the Commons has been notably muted. The Tory benches were rather quiet when

How much trouble is Boris Johnson in over partygate? Since allegations first emerged last year of a number of parties and gatherings in 10 Downing Street when the rest of the country was living under strict Covid restrictions, the Prime Minister has had to launch an investigation (now led by civil servant Sue Gray after cabinet secretary Simon Case had to step down over his own prior knowledge of said gatherings) and seen his approval ratings plummet. Just as Downing Street aides had begun to hope the saga was nearing an end, new evidence has emerged which appears to put Johnson in the firing line. ITV News has published an email sent by the Prime

Why has the government changed its mind and asked children to wear masks in school? When Plan B was announced last month, there was no requirement. But that has changed. Nadhim Zahawi, the Education Secretary, was asked why on Monday. He replied that ‘we conducted a small observational study with 123 schools who had followed mask-wearing in classrooms before and saw that they made a difference’. He suggested it was quite a significant study. ‘If you just think it through, with a respiratory disease that is aerosol-transmitted, if you are asymptomatic but wearing a mask, you’re much, much less likely to infect other people.’ The government has now published an ‘Evidence Summary’