Covid-19

Vaccines are testing Central Europe’s loyalties to the EU

In a fresh embarrassment for the EU in its vaccine rollout, breakaway member Hungary is now at the top of the bloc’s vaccine league table. The Czech Republic, Hungary’s Visegrád Four ally, languishes near the bottom of the list, having so far stuck with the EU’s centralised procurement programme. Meanwhile neighbouring Slovakia has now opted for the Hungarian approach, having taken delivery of its first shipment of Sputnik V vaccines last week. Problems are certainly piling up for Brussels – and in Central and Eastern Europe, a region with a long history of EU rebellion, the idea of ‘going it alone’ is heightening tensions between pro- and anti-EU factions. The

UK summons EU officials over ‘false’ vaccine claims

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has blasted claims by a senior Eurocrat that the UK is hampering the bloc’s vaccine rollout, calling the questionable assertions ‘completely false’. Charles Michel, president of the European Council, initially argued that Britain had imposed an ‘outright ban on the export of vaccines or vaccine components’ leaving the country in an EU blog on Tuesday. (Michel then subtly soften his claim after commentators pointed out there was no such ‘outright ban’, instead he said there were ‘different ways of imposing bans or restrictions on vaccines’.) But London was having none of it. Raab came out fighting on Tuesday night, insisting that ‘any references to a UK export ban or any restrictions

Isabel Hardman

Rishi Sunak’s real opponent

Things are starting to get more awkward for Rishi Sunak — something the Chancellor has long been prepared for. He knew that the early months of the pandemic, in which he gave out billions in taxpayers’ cash, would fade to the rather more difficult landscape he now faces: trying to rein that spending in — and stop ministers from eking more and more out of the Treasury for their own departments.  At this morning’s Treasury questions, Sunak inevitably faced questions about the bombshell dropped by NHS chief Sir Simon Stevens in a select committee hearing that the NHS had been budgeting for a 2.1 per cent pay rise. Katy offers

Ross Clark

How worried should we be about a third wave?

At the beginning of the year, Boris Johnson and his advisers were at pains to tell us that by spring we would be in a vastly better situation with Covid. Well, spring is here, the number of new infections and deaths is falling by around 30 per cent week on week, deaths are back to where they were last October and new infections last September. The vaccine programme is running on time, and take-up has been high. Why, then, was the chief medical officer Chris Whitty so downbeat when he addressed the House of Commons science and technology committee this morning? He told MPs that he was expecting a further

Katy Balls

Sunak’s NHS pay rise headache

Will the government press on with a 1 per cent pay rise for nurses? Despite the Chancellor announcing tax rises in his Budget, it’s a recommendation over NHS pay that is proving the most contentious for ministers. The Department of Health has recommended a 1 per cent rise to the independent panel that advises the government on NHS salaries. This is below what had been expected — with nurses’ unions campaigning for a pay rise as high as 12.5 per cent. Government aides are keen to stress no decision has been made as the independent body is not due to make its recommendation until May.  Speaking today before the health select committee,

Will reopening schools set back Boris’s lockdown timetable?

Schools in England have gone back today, with pupils taking lateral flow tests and being asked to wear masks in order to keep the risk of infections as low as possible.  Today Boris Johnson held a special press conference to mark what he described as an ’emotional’ moment in the exit from lockdown. He said that the ‘overwhelming feeling is one of relief’ and that the ‘greater risk now is keeping them out of school for a day longer’.  There are rumblings about whether the current plan for lifting restrictions is sustainable He praised teachers for getting schools ready and for teaching throughout the lockdown period, and parents for homeschooling

Ross Clark

What the return of classrooms means for Covid

Will the return of schools reverse, or dramatically slow, the sharp downwards trend in new Covid-19 infections, which is currently falling at more than 30 per cent a week? No one knows for sure, but it seems unlikely that the mass return of schools today will not have some effect on infections in England, especially given that it involves a section of the population that has not been vaccinated.  While few children suffer serious symptoms of Covid-19, they can carry the disease — older children, especially. For that reason, a return of unvaccinated children to school is likely to have a greater effect on raw infection numbers than, say, a

The big state won’t save our post-Covid world

The big state is back. The Budget puts Britain on a path to having the highest tax levels since the 1950s, and a state that controls as much of our GDP as it did in the days when it still owned carmakers, phone lines and travel agents. Despite Rishi Sunak’s best efforts to contain spending, the figures are likely to go higher still, as the bills for the NHS, social care, and disrupted education continue to rise. But it’s not just about the numbers. Even before the pandemic, the political winds were blowing towards larger government, with Boris Johnson embracing a more muscular, state-led industrial strategy. But the pandemic has

Kate Andrews

The weekly cost of lockdown

Lockdown has always been a matter of trade-offs. The impact of suppressing the economy to also suppress a deadly virus has had consequences on every aspect of life, from non-Covid health treatment, to rising unemployment, to the impact on children’s education. But these costs can be calculated in something much closer to real time. New data from the OECD, analysed by The Spectator and unveiled in this week’s magazine, shows the weekly difference between a country’s economic activity now and how it compares with the year before.  First, let’s look at change in lockdown stringency — as measured by Oxford University’s Blatavnik School of Government. When the second wave struck, Britain ended up

Sunak’s Covid budget offers a glimpse of Britain’s Brexit freedoms

Rishi Sunak’s planned corporation tax hike is a reminder of the importance he sets by trying to put the public finances on a sounder footing. He think that his room for manoeuvre in this crisis has been, in part, because the public finances were in reasonable shape before it.  The vaccination programme remains this government’s most important economic policy As I say in the magazine this week, his concern about debt has long been about the cost of servicing it (which remains low) rather than its precise level. But the debt pile is now so large that small movements in interest rates have big consequences. But straightening out the public

Ross Clark

Is the fall in Covid infections really slowing down?

Imperial College’s REACT study is given a prominence over other Covid data, but it is a struggle to understand why. This morning, as so often, BBC news bulletins included the latest tranche of results from the study, suggesting that the fall in new Covid infections is ‘slowing’.  The data appears to confirm a deceleration in the fall in infections that was evident in the Test and Trace figures a fortnight ago – and which I wrote about here a week ago – but which has since been reversed. React seems to be telling us a story which we could equally glean much earlier from the PHE figures. The apparent slowdown in

Perhaps it is time to nationalise our failing railways

We mustn’t abandon the railways to market forces, many on the left asserted when British Rail was broken up and privatised in the 1990s. They needn’t have worried. A quarter of a century on and we have yet to see a market force take to the tracks. Wasn’t the whole purpose of privatisation supposed to be to transfer financial risk from the taxpayer to private finance?  Instead, as soon as the Covid crisis struck, while other industries were offered loans, furlough payments and business rate relief but were otherwise left to fend for themselves, the rail industry was propped up as if nothing was wrong. The government simply suspended the

Ross Clark

How worried should we be about the Brazilian variant?

How worried should we be about the news that P1, one of the two Brazilian variants of Sars-CoV-2, has been found in six people who travelled from Brazil to Britain before the hotel quarantine rules came into force, and that one of these people has yet to be traced? Variant P1 is of concern not just because laboratory study has revealed changes to the spike protein, which might make it theoretically more transmissible, but because of real-world data from Manaus, the Amazonian city to which its origins have been traced. It was first detected in Japan on 6 January among a family which had travelled from the city. A subsequent

Katja Hoyer

The rapid fall of Germany’s health minister

Young, polished and confident, Germany’s health minister became the country’s most popular politician in 2020. A darling of the conservative right, Jens Spahn, was even tipped as a candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor. At the peak of his popularity last November, surveys indicated approval from nearly two-thirds of all Germans. He seemed to reflect the success story that was Germany’s handling of the pandemic, the personification of friendly German efficiency. Fast forward to last week, and you find a defensive Spahn facing a hostile one-hour long grilling in parliament. His arms crossed and his jaw set, the 40-year-old was visibly tense as he braced himself for questions from

When will Boris urge workers to return to the office?

One of the big post-Covid unknowns is whether people will return to big city centre offices or not. As I write in the Times today, the truth is that no one in government can be quite sure of what is going to happen. The Government does have some levers it can pull if it wants to nudge people back to their desks. At present it is instructing people to work from home, advice that’s not due to be reviewed before 21 June. There is also the question of social distancing. If the one-metre rule remains in place after 21 June, it will restrict how many staff any business can accommodate.

Ross Clark

Are people tiring of lockdown?

Is the decline in new Covid infections slowing down? That is the picture painted by the government’s figures for confirmed infections, arrived at via the NHS Test and Trace system. The most recent figures show that the 71,320 cases recorded in the seven days to Wednesday are 15 per cent down on the previous seven days — a substantial fall, yet over the previous few weeks numbers had been declining at around 25 per cent every week. The fall in deaths, on the other hand, appears to be accelerating. The figure for the past seven days — at 2,684 — is 30 per cent down on the previous seven days.

Joanna Rossiter

What Angela Merkel can learn from the Queen about vaccine scepticism

You have to feel for Germany. After a fraught vaccine procurement process, not only is the government struggling to persuade its citizens to take the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine, but Angela Merkel has now stated that she will not be given the jab on account of her age.  ‘I do not belong to the recommended age group for AstraZeneca,’ the German chancellor told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. It could well be the final nail in the coffin for an EMA-approved, safe vaccine that has cost her country millions. Merkel’s view may be aligned with government policy – she is 66 and therefore, under the German rules which state that over 65s

Spare a thought for students

Spare a thought for those due to sit their A-Levels next summer. They have already had considerable disruption to their education. But today’s announcement that this year’s A-Level grades will be done by teacher assessment risks compounding their misfortune.  It means that the current lower sixth will be competing for university places — and jobs — against those who have received teacher assessed grades, which are bound to be more generous than those that an exam would produce. (For all sorts of understandable reasons, teachers will want to give their pupils the benefit of the doubt when awarding potentially life-changing marks). The disadvantage the current lower sixth cohort is being put

James Forsyth

Too much good news could spell trouble for Boris

Tory MP’s reaction to the lockdown easing plan is a mixed bag. In general, they would have preferred a quicker timetable. But, as I say in the magazine this week, there is also relief that Johnson has explicitly ruled out going for a zero-Covid strategy and that there is an end date for all restrictions. A big fear on the Tory benches was that unless a date was set, restrictions could drag on for years in the way that rationing did after the second world war.  If the data on vaccine take-up and efficacy continues to beat the government’s models, there will be some very impatient Tory MPs One senior Conservative

Why aren’t exams going ahead?

When Boris Johnson talked about trusting teachers, I suspected that the government must be desperate. Trust is not a word I have head much in my 25-year teaching career. I am no longer trusted to go into a GCSE exam hall to look at the paper that my class is sitting in case I somehow manage to undermine the integrity of the exam. But that was 2019. This morning Gavin Williamson confirmed that this year, it will come down to me and my colleagues in school. There will be no exam papers, no external markers, and certainly no algorithms. Before the pandemic we weren’t even trusted to mark coursework for