Conservative party

Will a Euro election defeat for Cameron lead to a Tory-Ukip pact?

The Conservative party has never come third in a nationwide election. But as today’s YouGov poll in The Sun shows, they are on course to be beaten into third place by Ukip in the European elections: Now, European elections are normally an after-thought in British politics. As even David Cameron admits, most of us can’t remember who our MEPs are and almost two-thirds of us don’t bother to vote for them. But as I say in the column this week, coming third behind Ukip will send the Tory party into a panic. In the weeks after the result, there’ll be calls for an electoral pact with Nigel Farage and his

Nick Cohen

The Tories’ hunger games

Last night I went to hear Chris Mould of the Trussell Trust speak at my local church. The scene appeared to confirm every myth Tories tell about themselves. Though it does not make a great noise about it, the Trust represents the Anglican conscience at its active best. On their own, without state support or any of those nanny bureaucracies the right so deplores, the churches have organised more than 400 distribution centres to provide emergency food aid to desperate people. The men and women, who check that clients are truly in need, and hand out food, nappies and sanitary towels, are volunteers, motivated by a concern for others rather

One solution to the housing shortage – build on Hampstead Heath

If I was going to measure possible reasons to desert the Tories at the next election, and I can think of a couple, plans to concrete over the countryside would score pretty highly. As a theoretical idea about something happening miles away from my home it almost makes me want to write letters to the Telegraph; if it were in my backyard I’d be shaking my fist at passing traffic or whatever people in the countryside do when they’re angry. This is moderately dangerous to the party, because what’s different now to, say, five years ago is that disaffected shire Tories have a plausible alternative to turn to, one that isn’t

Isabel Hardman

Cameron urges Tory MPs to stop writing troublemaking letters

David Cameron addressed the parliamentary Conservative party last night. He took an opportunity to tell MPs to stop writing him public letters, and instead that they should approach him privately and that his ‘door is always open’. That opportunity was raised by Brighton Kemptown MP Simon Kirby, who complained about colleagues ‘banging on about Europe’ (even those who signed the letter are a bit worried about the amount of chat about Europe that it has provoked). But the meeting itself was focused on the party’s media strategy (with a presentation from Craig Oliver) and what one present described as ‘holistic election strategy’. That involved the PM sketching out the key

What the minimum wage debate tells us about the Tory Right

The Conservative debate about the minimum wage continues today, with campaign group Renewal pushing for an increase, at least in line with inflation. Renewal is launching an interesting agenda today aimed at making capitalism work for groups who currently feel it fails them, such as the low paid and those living in deindustrialised towns in northern England. The group’s work, ‘Renewing Capitalism’, is supported by Robert Halfon, the Tory MP who is always trying to work out ways of broadening the Conservative appeal. He says: ‘It was a big mistake for the Conservative party to oppose the minimum wage. We must right that wrong by at least increasing it in

James Forsyth

Bernard Jenkin’s letter is just the start – renegotiation will expose every Tory division on Europe

Straight after David Cameron’s speech last January committing himself to renegotiation and a referendum, I asked one Tory minister what he made of it. He chuckled and said that Cameron must be planning to stand down after the next election. The point behind this joke was that renegotiation and the referendum itself would expose every Tory division on Europe there is. Once the renegotiation was under way, he argued, it would no longer be possible to gloss over the fact that Cameron means something different by renegotiation than much of his party. William Hague’s reaction to the Bernard Jenkin letter, which has been doing the rounds of Tory backbenchers since

Welfare wars

George Osborne is refreshingly uninterested in his public image, believing that he will be judged by the success (or otherwise) of his economic policies. So when the Chancellor pops up to give a speech, he spends little time trying to mask his underlying aim — which is usually to sock it to Ed Balls, his opposite number. He is a Chancellor-cum-strategist who weighs every policy for the damage it could inflict upon his opponents. And on the issue of welfare, he sees an opportunity to strike. Introducing a benefits cap has been the single toughest policy introduced by this coalition government. It is also the most popular with the public,

Isabel Hardman

George Osborne: Minimum wage rise must not cost jobs

Amid continuing confusion on what on earth the Tories do think about raising the minimum wage, George Osborne has had a go at clarifying things. He has just told Sky News: ‘Well look, I think everyone wants to see an increase in the minimum wage. I’d like to see an increase in the minimum wage, but it has to be done in a way that doesn’t cost people their jobs, because that would be self-defeating and we have the Low Pay Commission as a body that exists to make exactly that judgement, and what we’ve got to do as a country is get that balance right between supporting business, growing

New Year blues for back to school Tories

The Chancellor is scaring the horses up in Brum with his ‘hard truths’ speech on the economy. Meanwhile, the troops in Westminster have that ‘back to school’ feeling. Mr Steerpike has been asking Conservative MPs, ranging from loyalists to rebels and from old timers to young scamps, for their New Year predictions. Many of the answers followed a similar theme. ‘UKIP will wipe the floor with everyone in the European elections, followed by a wide ranging ministerial reshuffle which doesn’t include me afterwards,’ said one noisy backbencher. This feeling was echoed by one junior government figure: ‘Big changes to Cabinet in early spring, poll lead by mid-year and minority Tory

Isabel Hardman

2014: the year of ‘hard truths’ that are easy for George Osborne to say

George Osborne has a funny way of saying ‘happy new year’. In his speech in Birmingham this morning, the Chancellor will describe 2014 as the year of ‘hard truths’ about how much more spending needs to be cut in order to close the deficit. So why is the Chancellor kicking off what most commentators are billing as an extremely long general election campaign with a bleak message about more cuts to come? In 2010, the three main parties did everything they could do avoid talking about the detail of the challenge on public spending. Now the Chancellor wants to make it his main weapon against Labour, knowing that voters have

Stand up for the real meaning of freedom

When pressed for a statement of their beliefs, conservatives give ironical or evasive answers: beliefs are what the others have, the ones who have confounded politics with religion, as socialists and anarchists do. This is unfortunate, because conservatism is a genuine, if unsystematic, philosophy, and it deserves to be stated, especially at a time like the present, when the future of our nation is in doubt. Conservatives believe that our identities and values are formed through our relations with other people, and not through our relation with the state. The state is not an end but a means. Civil society is the end, and the state is the means to

The big idea that can win the Tories the next election

In one sense David Cameron is lucky that the Conservatives do not enter 2014 with a lead in the polls. If they did, the Prime Minister would be under pressure for stitching up the Fixed Term Parliaments Act with Nick Clegg, thereby denying himself the chance of doing what all strong governments have done over the past 35 years, with unfailing success: going to the country after four years. Barring a vote of no confidence, we already know the date of the next election: 7 May 2015. With the exception of John Major in 1992, no Prime Minister who waited five years has won re-election since Clement Attlee in 1950

Video: David Cameron’s New Year message for 2014

David Cameron’s New Year message (and his accompanying Times op-ed) is an upbeat call to stick with the Tories to get the job done. He writes of his desire to ‘turn Britain into the flagship post-Great Recession success story. A country that is on the rise’. And in his video message he focuses on the signs that the country is already rising. Downing Street is keen to stress that this message is no Blair/Brown-style relaunch of the government with a shiny new logo and a plan. It is the Prime Minister trying to encourage optimism about Britain’s best days lying ahead of it, but that ‘recovery is real, but it’s

Six moments that hardened up the Tories in 2013

For the Conservative party, 2013 has been the year of Lynton Crosby. Just over a year ago, the Wizard of Oz was appointed David Cameron’s chief election strategist. Now he’s full-time. His brief is to make sure the Tories in government have a clear message – something that eluded them in the 2010 campaign. And to see that the message is articulated in deeds, not words. In April, the Prime Minister described his own strategy by using a quote from the late Keith Joseph: ‘the right thing to do is to address the things people care about; to fix yourself firmly in what Keith Joseph called the “common ground” of

Tories take Spectator advice and offer Boris a campaigning role

The Sun on Sunday’s story this morning that senior Tories have opened talks with Boris Johnson about a campaigning role for the Mayor follows some advice offered by James Forsyth in the pages of this magazine back in May. In his politics column, James argued that Boris needed a role in the 2015 campaign to reach voters who might otherwise be turned off by the Tories: ‘Persuading the public that Labour can’t be trusted with office again is necessary but not sufficient. To achieve victory, the Tories must connect with the electorate in a way that they are currently not. That means Cameron finding a role for Boris; he’d be

Tory wars back after Christmas truce

After a seasonal interlude, rival Tories are back to doing what they do best: warring over the heart and soul of the party. In the cuddly corner, we have Bright Blue; a think tank of hoody-huggers who are imploring the PM to be nice to immigrants. The Guardian has been purring with approval since Bright Blue’s director Ryan Shorthouse ‘specifically called for the Tory Party to adopt a Liberal-Conservative manifesto for the election’: ‘At the moment, the messaging is quite negative and uninspiring – it’s not enough to win voters and gain momentum. We need to be more inspiring and bigger picture than that and we need a positive vision, not

Tea at 22: Michael Fallon on jobs, Europe and Ukip

In the latest episode of Tea at 22, I interviewed Conservative business and energy minister Michael Fallon on his work in two Whitehall departments, Tory EU policy, and the party’s approach to Ukip. Fallon was the Spectator’s Minister of the Year for 2013. He had some very interesting points about how the Business department in particular might look different under a Tory majority government, suggesting that the Lib Dems had held the Tories back in getting more young people into work. Asked whether the Lib Dems had left the labour market rather more gummed up than the Tories would like, Fallon said: ‘Yes we would certainly have liked to have

Rushing to judgement on the ‘crack cocaine of gambling’

Ed Miliband’s pledge to crack down on the ‘crack cocaine of gambling’  is a significant moment in the extraordinary moral panic over fixed-odds betting terminals (FOBTs). Earlier this year, the Department for Culture, Media and Sport found that there was very little data to back up the anecdotal evidence of the anti-FOBT brigade and so decided to commission some research. This process will take 18 months and a decision about stakes and prizes will be made once there is some evidence to study. This eminently reasonable, evidence-based approach has naturally been howled down by the anti-gambling lobby whose campaign has thus far relied on anecdotes and, at best, half-truths. Earlier

Isabel Hardman

Will ignoring FOBTs be enough?

When he spoke to the 1922 Committee on Wednesday, David Cameron told MPs that the Conservative attack on Labour must not involve fighting the party on its own territory. He named payday loans as one of the issues that Ed Miliband and co want to create an ‘evil Tories’ narrative on. But another one that Miliband is currently focusing on is fixed-odds betting terminals, or FOBTs. The Labour leader has announced today that a Labour government would give councils the power to ban or cut the number of FOBTs in their areas. Visiting Kilburn today, Miliband said: ‘Currently there is almost nothing that can be done to stop the spread

Tories try to adapt their food bank message

There was a food bank debate yesterday in the House of Commons. We all know that, but what few people can tell you is what was said. Instead, there is a furious debate raging about whether the Tories were laughing at poor people not having enough money for food, or whether Labour MPs were laughing too. I’ll leave that to other people to tussle over, suffice to say that it wasn’t the most edifying debate I’ve watched, mainly because as with all arguments in Westminster over food banks, both sides were jeering one another and making ugly accusations about each other too. These accusations tend to boil the problem of