Conservative party

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Tory eurosceptics plot to use loss in Rochester to pressure Cameron

Labour might be mired in misery this week, but at least it can take comfort that around the corner is the Rochester by-election, which the Conservatives look set to lose. Not one MP returning from campaigning against their former colleague Mark Reckless honestly thinks they’ll win, even if they tweet nice things and post aggressive videos. Let’s just remind ourselves of why losing this constituency is particularly painful for the Conservatives. They spent their conference calling Reckless a ‘dickhead‘ and saying they thought they could win the by-election because he was a liar, and he didn’t have the same personal appeal as Douglas Carswell in a constituency considered far less

Isabel Hardman

Tory MPs react to Osborne's 'EU bill deal'

So are Tory backbenchers happy with what George Osborne claims to have brought back from Europe after his talks on that £1.7 billion bill? While the government argues with the European Commission about what it has and hasn’t secured this afternoon, the Right of the Tory party have already been working out what they think. Some had set a very low limbo bar of £400 million, and Britain certainly will end up paying more than that. The first thing is that they’re naturally not happy with the idea that Britain is paying anything. The basic view of those in the No Turning Back and Cornerstone groups is that Osborne should

Anne Jolis

Smoke, mirrors, magic: how George Osborne "halved" the £1.7bn EU bill

George Osborne took a victory lap on Friday to declare that ‘instead of footing the bill, we have halved the bill.’ This would be the £1.7 billion EU budget invoice the European Commission handed to the UK government in October, with a pay-by date of 1 December. After meeting with his EU counterparts today, the UK finance minister announced a deal in which ‘the bill instead of being £1.7 billion will be around £850 million’. Er…not quite, as it turns out. Here’s what Osborne left out: the UK will still owe the full £1.7 billion, only not all in December, and would be able to quickly offset part of the

Camilla Swift

Shoot first, ask questions later – police back off new gun monitoring plans

A few weeks ago, I wrote about a new Crimestoppers telephone hotline that the Association of Chief Police Officers (Acpo) decided would be a good idea, that was going to be dedicated specifically to ‘concerns about legally held firearms’. What ‘concerns’, exactly? Well, mainly that shooters could be ‘vulnerable to criminal or terrorist groups’ which is why the new phone line was designed to help the police ‘gather intelligence’, by urging members of the public to report any signs of ‘radicalism, extremism and vulnerability to terrorism’ among gun owners. But after a dedicated campaign from the Countryside Alliance, the decision has been made to abandon the plans. The organisation had

Thursday

Christopher Caldwell

What Angela Merkel really wants (it's not good news for Dave)

Angela Merkel is misunderstood. Last winter, when Russia moved to annex Crimea after the overthrow of Ukraine’s government, American officials put it about that the German Chancellor had described Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin as ‘living in another world’ and ‘out of touch with reality’. No evidence has emerged that she ever said any such thing. Europhiles in the press and in Westminster have now pulled the same trick on David Cameron. The Prime Minister has lately been ruminating about quotas for migrants from certain European Union countries. He complained last month when an unannounced £1.7 billion upward adjustment in Britain’s EU payment turned out to be triple the levy on

James Forsyth

Ukip’s Patrick O’Flynn on the ‘genius’ Nigel Farage and why Douglas Carswell’s votes won’t set party policy

Interviews with Ukip bigwigs used to happen in pubs. But times are changing. When I meet Patrick O’Flynn — the party’s economics spokesman, and until recently chief spin doctor — it’s in a juice bar. O’Flynn, a former political editor of the Daily Express who studied economics at Cambridge, is one of those driving Ukip towards professionalism. Ukip, he says, is the only party he’s ever joined, and it is ‘not part of the Conservative family’. That is why he rates its chances in northern Labour seats: ‘We didn’t close down any coal mines or steelworks and we’re not known as the patrician Home Counties rich people’s party.’ He claims,

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Miliband corners Cameron on immigration at listless PMQs

The Commons has a rather listless feel to it at the moment. Today’s PMQs will not live long in the memory. Ed Miliband’s strategy was to get David Cameron to say as often as possible that he wants to stay in the EU, with the hope that this would drive a wedge between Cameron and his backbenchers. This tactic was, as far as it went, quite effective. Cameron repeatedly said that he wanted to stay in a reformed EU, and wasn’t prepared to say explicitly that he would be prepared to campaign for an exit if he didn’t get what he wanted out of the renegotiation. Labour believe, with justification,

Isabel Hardman

Tories to lose nine seats to Labour in latest Ashcroft poll

Lord Ashcroft’s polls are, as a rule, very rarely good news for the Tories these days – the peer clearly hopes that he’s at least warned the party before it goes over the top – and his latest tranche of surveys in marginal seats proves that rule. The peer examined 12 marginal seats where the Conservatives lead Labour with majorities as low as 1,936 and as high as 3,744. Here’s what you need to know: 1. Across the 12 seats, Labour led the Tories by 36 per cent to 33 per cent, with just three seats remaining with the Tories: Loughborough (Nicky Morgan), Kingswood (Chris Skidmore) and Blackpool North &

Tuesday

Theo Hobson

Muddled souls - Britain is a non-religious, Christian-ish country

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_30_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Ruby Wax and Andy Puddicombe join Mary Wakefield to discuss the quasi-religion of ‘mindfulness’.”] Listen [/audioplayer] A new survey of British religious attitudes is out. It reveals a surprising degree of hostility to religion, and an unsurprising degree of muddle. David Cameron’s claim that Britain is a Christian country looks refuted, for more than 60 per cent of respondents said they are ‘not religious at all’. Presumably this must mean that less than 40 per cent call themselves Christian? Er, no – 56 per cent say they are Christian. It seems that Britain has a strong contingent of nonreligious Christians, like secular Jews. The most striking finding is

Isabel Hardman

Who will be the next Tory defector to Ukip?

The Tories have now accepted they’ve got a much worse chance of winning the Rochester by-election than they claimed they initially did. The plan now is to factor in a victory to the political narrative so the result doesn’t cause as much trouble when it does come, and to whittle down Mark Reckless’s majority so that it appears he cannot hold the constituency in 2015. But a second victory for Ukip in a less Ukip-friendly seat will still encourage would-be Tory defectors, and this is what the whips and Number 10 fear. Most MPs think John Baron and Philip Hollobone are the most susceptible to Ukip, but there’s another name

Isabel Hardman

European Arrest Warrant vote could be held next Monday

David Cameron promised that the European Arrest Warrant vote would be held before the Rochester by-election on 20 November, but so far no date has been set. I now hear that the government plans to hold the vote next Monday. Nothing has been confirmed, and won’t be until tomorrow night. The size of the rebellion seems to have reduced a little since that PMQs announcement, with some troublesome MPs who are not die-hard rebels concluding that since the measure, which will see Britain opting back into the EAW, will pass on the strength of Labour and Lib Dem votes anyway, this would be a wasted rebellion. Others, though, including David

Douglas Murray

'Swamped' much? David Blunkett 2014, meet David Blunkett 2002

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_23_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Mats Persson and Matthew Elliott join James Forsyth to discuss Europe and migration.”] Listen [/audioplayer] Last week saw an example of the cynicism, not to mention circularity, of our immigration debate that is too important to miss. The former home secretary, David Blunkett, took to the pages of the Daily Mail to support the current defence secretary, Michael Fallon. Mr Fallon, readers will recall, had just been caught in an interview using the ‘swamped’ word to refer to the historically unprecedented levels of immigration that have affected much of Britain in recent years. Like many politicians from across the party divide Mr Blunkett has lately become very keen

Monday

Steerpike

What to expect from Owen Paterson's think-tank launch?

Whatever could Owen Paterson be up to? The sacked Environment Secretary gave a punchy speech a few weeks back on climate change and is now set to intervene in the another important conversation. Tomorrow will see the launch of Opatz’s new vanity think tank called UK2020 that, according to the invitation, will be ‘dedicated to advancing a genuinely Conservative agenda’. Mr S understands the launch will include a speech by Paterson on the economy – an obvious subject matter for any aspiring leader looking to strengthen their post-2015 credentials. Will Paterson go the whole hog and come dressed as a peacock?

Sunday

James Forsyth

What Tory MPs remember from their away day

Two things have stuck in Tory MPs’ minds from their away. The first, that painting of George Osborne. The second, Jim Messina’s presentation and his confidence that the Tories would win.   Messina managed Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election effort and last year, the Tories announced that they had signed him up to advise them. At the time, most people—including several senior Cabinet ministers—regarded it as a press release hire, a good way of tweaking Labour but not much more. But Messina has, perhaps prompted by his great rival from the Obama campaign David Axelrod joining up with Ed Miliband, got more involved in recent months. He was over for Tory

Friday

Molly Guinness

Liberate women...from the rotten dictatorial group-think of 'feminism'

Good on David Cameron for refusing to wear that hideous T-shirt. Feminists these days spend an awful lot of time telling people what to think and what to wear. It’s easy to forget the heady days of feminism’s innocence, when it lobbied for freedom, the freedom for women to operate telegraphs, for example. The deft fingers of women were to set in action the wires of the telegraph with as much swift dexterity as they do those of the piano. They were to write messages about iron and steel and stocks and shares with the same easy celerity that they corresponded about the last new ribbon or baby’s first tooth.

Stewart Jackson

If David Cameron doesn't take immigration seriously, he'll lose the election

Coffee House readers may remember a classic John Cleese comedy film almost thirty years ago called Clockwise. It’s the story of middle class angst, frustration, desperation and ultimate triumph at the last possible moment. It’s most memorable quote is that of Cleese to his young companion: ‘It’s not the despair Laura, it’s the hope I cant stand.’ Such is the attitude of many Conservative backbenchers as they wait for the Prime Minister’s keynote speech on his renegotiation with the European Union due before Christmas, a speech that will inevitably be seen through the prism of concern at the level of European Union citizens immigration to the UK, the growing voter

Nick Cohen

What passing-bells for politicians who die as cattle?

Over the top: British soldiers in the trenches (Image: Getty) The allies did not sweep into Germany in 1918, winning the First World War with the glory and élan of a victorious army. The victors triumphed because they held their disintegrating forces together better than Germany and Austria-Hungary could manage. In the end, and in the case of Italy and France only just, and in the case of Russia not at all, they could just about bear the horrendous casualties and costs; the threat of mutiny at the front and of disease, starvation and revolution at home. In October 1918, a German military censor knew it was all up when

Isabel Hardman

Tories on away day put away hopes of winning Rochester

Tory MPs are in Oxfordshire today for an ‘away day’. It’s supposed to focus on the autumn statement, but Tory MPs also want to make a few points about the Prime Minister’s immigration policies (read Fraser’s Telegraph column on the problems with aping Ukip) and others want to complain about the Coalition continuing when the Lib Dems have blocked the EU referendum bill and are complaining about the Tory stance on drugs (this will be in vain, but a good number of backbenchers have told me they want to bring it up anyway). But the funny thing about this away day is that many Tory backbenchers were rather surprised to

Thursday

The Spectator

How to fight Ukip

In the 2005 general election this magazine supported the Conservatives, with one exception — we urged voters in Medway not to vote for a deeply unimpressive Tory candidate by the name of Mark Reckless. Our then political editor, Peter Oborne, went so far as to write a pamphlet in support of the Labour rival, Bob Marshall Andrews, who had a commendable record of sticking it to Tony Blair. Reckless, by contrast, had nothing to commend him. He lost by just 213 votes — suggesting that The Spectator’s intervention had been decisive. But nothing, it seems, will prevent Reckless from being elected as Ukip’s second MP in two weeks’ time. The Ukip momentum