Coalition

Explaining Cameron’s debt u-turn

“Millionaire David Cameron wants you to pay off your credit card – are you going to obey the Prime Minister?” asked one local BBC radio station phone-in this morning. This is not what No. 10 had in mind when releasing selective quotes from his speech last night. “The only way out of a debt crisis is to deal with your debts. That means households – all of us – paying off the credit card and store card bills.” This line in his speech is now being rapidly rewritten – and for good reason. Because the Prime Minister was in danger of making a major mistake.   The premise of the

Lansley offers reassurance

After Gove, a minister whose agenda has gone less smoothly — and it showed. Andrew Lansley’s speech to Tory conference was part re-re-restatement of the case for reform, part massage for any residual tensions left over from the summer. Here’s a five-point summary of the things that stood out to me: i) An appeal to NHS workers. Lansley began not just by paying extended tribute to NHS staff, but by encouraging everyone else to do the same. “I want to thank them,” he said, “and I know we all want to thank them” — to which the audience duly responded with applause. Although this was designed to sweeten some of

The Tory split over the ECHR

Ken Clarke is speaking at a Daily Telegraph fringe event and he was quick to play a few of his favourite European games in response to Theresa May’s assault on the Human Rights Act and the European Court of Human Rights. Nick Watt reports that Clarke claims May did not brief of her examples of the HRA being abused. And he cast doubt on their veracity: according to Lucy Manning, Clarke jovially challenged May to substantiate her claim that a criminal was not deported on human rights grounds because they happened to own a cat. This may seem like fun and games, but it reveals the tension over the HRA and the ECHR that exists

The human rights smokescreen

Today’s papers resound with the news that Theresa May is resisting Liberal Democrat opposition to close the loophole over the “right to family life”, Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights. This change, it is argued, will ensure that foreign criminals are deported so that the courts protect, as David Cameron put it, “the United Kingdom”.  The announcement is a carefully choreographed step to differentiate the Tories from the Liberal Democrats. Dr Evan Harris, the self-anointed king of the Lib Dems in exile, told the BBC this morning: ‘It’s actually a useful tool because it enables Nick Clegg to say the Human Rights Act (HRA) is here to say

Explaining credit easing

Having had a few more discussions, I’m a bit clearer about the government’s plan to do credit easing. The full details of the scheme will be released on the 29th of November as part of the autumn statement. But I hear that the scheme is intended to be worth between the high billions and the low tens of billions and it will be aimed specifically at small and medium sized enterprises, although it could be extended to all companies and expanded up to somewhere in the region of £50bn if the credit markets were to seize up.  I also understand that major supply side measures are being saved up for

Shapps sharpens the Right to Buy

It’s a day for growth initiatives. In addition to those described earlier, George Osborne has announced that Whitehall’s annual underspend will be reinvested into capital spending projects. The emphasis on infrastructure echoes Danny Alexander’s statements during the Lib Dem conference, when the Treasury secretary disclosed that existing programmes would be brought forward and funded by recalibrating budgets. So there seems to be agreement between the two parties about bolstering the coalition’s growth strategy in a certain way, which may explain why the Tories are so determined to resist pressure to introduce politically awkward tax cuts. Grant Shapps has also been elaborating on the changes to the Right to Buy. He

Hague: No deficit funded tax cuts

William Hague’s just been on Dermot Murnaghan’s Sky show. They shot the breeze for a bit, gabbing about foreign affairs and the recent targeted assassinations on Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, then the conversation moved on to tax cuts as an economic stimulus. Hague laughed off the suggestion, saying that the US is in its current crisis because for years it has concentrated on offering tax cuts rather than controlling its deficits. Britain will not make that mistake, he said. ‘No deficit funded tax cuts’ was a line first pursued by David Cameron ten days ago in a speech to the Canadian parliament (although, as Fraser has noted, it has

Briefing: QE2

Get ready for more Quantitative Easing. This week, Reuters found that economists think there’s a 40 per cent chance the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce another round when they meet on Thursday. And even if they hold off now, it’s unlikely to be for long. Weak growth and the worsening outlook for the economy seem to have changed minds. The Treasury has surveyed growth predictions from independent forecasters. Back in January, the average prediction was for 2 per cent growth in 2011. It has since fallen steadily to just 1.2 per cent. Similarly, expectations for 2012 have also been downgraded, from the 2.1 per cent growth

A reform the Tories should shout about

As of today, you can’t fire someone just for turning 65. The government has delivered its promise to scrap the Default Retirement Age (DRA), introduced by Labour in 2006 as a caveat to otherwise laudable equality legislation. This ends the practice of forced retirement regardless of someone’s ability to work. Killing it is one of the best things the coalition has done and the Tories should be making more of as they gather in Manchester. Of course, there will be some transition difficulties from scrapping (DRA), but they’re likely to be minor. Claims that older workers sticking around in their jobs will squeeze out the young are too simplistic –

Osborne mulling child benefit u-turn

Eric Pickles makes no bones that his bin policy is aimed at Middle Britain, and the Tories may soon announce more measures to butter up that vital electoral constituency. The Times reports (£) that Cameron and Osborne are seriously considering a u-turn on their controversial cut to child benefits over families in which parent earns more than £42,475, which is due to be introduced in January 2013. George Osborne apparently never does anything unless it yields a political dividend and this is an intriguing development, if it materialises. It reiterates that the Tories know they have a woman problem; identified by Melanie McDonagh in a magazine cover piece earlier this

Eric’ll fix it

The papers report that Eric Pickles has beaten Caroline Spelman: bins will be collected on a weekly basis. Back in June, James reported how the DCLG and DEFRA were opposed to Pickles’ plan and that Spelman, who once advocated weekly collections in Opposition, had gone Whitehall native. It was a test, James said, of the government’s ability to master its civil servants. Pickles was very closely associated with the pledge and the impasse threatened to damage his burgeoning reputation in office. Now he is gloating in his hour of victory. “I may make passing reference to the scheme in my speech,” he told the Today programme in that garrulous manner

Hague: The euro is a burning building with no exit

James Forsyth has interviewed the foreign secretary, William Hague, in tomorrow’s issue of the Spectator. Here is an extended version of the piece that will appear in the magazine. Politicians normally have to wait for the history books for vindication. But for William Hague it has come early. All his warnings about the dangers of the euro, so glibly mocked at the time, have come to pass. But, as he makes clear when I meet him in his study in the Foreign Office days before the start of Tory conference, he is not enjoying this moment. Rather, he is absorbed with trying to sort out the mess that others have

Miliband v Clegg: now it’s personal

It’s safe to say that Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg don’t get on. Even before he was elected leader, Miliband told the New Statesman he would never work with the Lib Dem leader: “Given what he is supporting, I think it is pretty hard to go into coalition with him.” He refused to share a platform with Clegg in the AV campaign, and then attacked him in Newcastle with a list of promises he accused the Lib Dems of breaking. All along, the plan has been to turn those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 against Clegg and lure them over to Labour. Whether it’s working is hard to tell.

Why all the apologies, Ed?

The Labour Conference 2011 has turned into a horrible misery-fest. What a daft idea to make the theme of the conference: “We’re really sorry, we won’t do it again”. At least it’s not the slogan, although it would have been more honest than “Fulfilling the Promise of Britain”. I agree with Steve Richards in the Independent that the pessimism is self-fulfilling. This does not feel like a platform for re-election I spent most of the New Labour era criticising Tony Blair and his government. I thought he was too cosy with the ultra-rich, cynical about criminal justice policy, disingenuous about the use of the private sector in providing public services

How’s Miliband doing?

In a word: badly. Ed Miliband has now led Labour for a full year, but has made no progress with regards to its standings in the polls. When he took over, the Labour party was at 37 per cent in the polls, according to Ipsos MORI. Considering that 60 per cent give the Coalition government the thumbs down, he’s had ample opportunity to improve this figure. And yet he’s failed. In their latest poll, MORI again have Labour on 37 per cent.   When it comes to his own personal ratings, the picture is even worse. As Miliband has become more well-known and more people have formed an opinion of

Labour wants to be the party of law and order

Andy Coulson was right to worry about the coalition’s law and order policies: Labour is trying to outflank the government from the right. Sadiq Khan and Yvette Cooper have cut assured figures at fringe events at this year’s conference, sensing that the government’s cuts to the law and order budget will imperil one of Labour’s positive legacies: substantially reducing reported crime (by 43 per cent according to Sadiq Khan) between 1997 and 2010. A strange atmosphere pervades the law and order fringe: the name ‘Tony Blair’ is spoken of with something approaching respect and it is met with scattered applause. Blair’s memory is profane to this incarnation of the Labour

Miliband woos the strivers

Finally, a good idea from the Labour conference. In his speech tomorrow, Ed Miliband will say he’d give workers priority over the jobless for social housing. This is the dividing line he was reluctant to draw when asked to by Andrew Marr on Sunday. It’s a clever move, and one that recognises the resentment felt by the strivers against the welfare dependent. He will say: “The hard truth is that we still have a system where reward for work is not high enough, where benefits are too easy to come by for those who abuse the system.” So councils dolling out housing should not only take need into account, but

Labour yet to find an answer to EU immigration

Ed Balls’ choreographed apologies earlier today included the acknowledgment that “we should have adopted tougher controls on migration from Eastern Europe”. He first adopted this stance during last year’s leadership election, when he offered an undeliverable but popular objective to court the ‘Gillian Duffy tendency’, who had turned away from New Labour. What began as classic opposition politics is now the party line, with Ed Miliband telling delegates yesterday, “We got it wrong in a number of respects including understating the level of immigration from Poland, which had a big effect on people in Britain.” And there are stories in today’s Mail and the Express about the deleterious effects of

Welfare worries

Away from Liverpool, the big stories of the day are the markets’ reaction to the putative Eurozone deal, which has been mixed so far, and the Telegraph’s splash about the progress of the Universal Credit, the coalition’s flagship welfare reform. The scheme is designed to simplify the benefits system and save circa £5 billion a year by reducing the scope for claims to be duplicated and errors made; it is a crucial cog in the coalition’s plan to make work pay. James Kirkup reports that the Treasury has apparently put the credit at the top of its “to watch” list of government projects that are at risk of running over