Coalition

Tuesday

James Forsyth

50p tax rate is raising less than expected

The Telegraph this evening has news that the 50p tax rate is, predictably, raising less than expected. A report from the HMRC on the effectiveness of the 50p rate should accompany the Budget. If that report indicates that a lower rate would raise more revenue, then it will be a real test of the coalition. Will they leave the rate in place for symbolic reasons or will they reduce it? The defence of the 50p rate has always been that it was necessary to maintain public support for deficit reduction. But it sends out an awful signal about Britain’s approach to success. Rewards for failure are—clearly—a bad thing, but rewards

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg’s NHS squeeze continues

As I said last week, Nick Clegg is in a tricky position when it comes to this Health Bill. Thanks to the concessions that he secured and welcomed last year, he can’t now just slander it outright. But thanks to the concerns of his own party, he will also be reluctant to endorse it in full. The result is the sort of ambiguous performance that the Deputy Prime Minister put in on ITV’s Daybreak show this morning. He did get stuck into Labour for their ‘outrageous’ misrepresentation of the reforms. But when it came to actually supporting the Bill, it seemed to me that he used generalisations — such as,

Jonathan Jones

The Lib Dems step up their push for £10,000

Set your TiVos. At 6.55 tomorrow evening, BBC1 will air the Liberal Democrats’ latest party political broadcast. For those of you who can’t wait, here’s a sneak preview: In the video, Nick Clegg describes his proposed increase in the income tax personal allowance as ‘a £700 tax cut for ordinary working people — that’s an extra £60 in your wages every month’. I’ve remarked before on the similarities in both rhetoric and policies between the Lib Dems and Barack Obama, but Clegg’s ‘£60 a month’ pitch is as close as you get to the way Obama sells his payroll tax cut extension as ‘about $40 in every paycheck’. We can now surely

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne accidentally makes the case for more savings

Rhetoric aside, what’s the difference between left and right in British politics? You won’t catch either party quantifying it, because the answer embarrasses both. The ever-cautious George Osborne is cutting just 0.6 percentage points a year more from government departments than Labour planned to (see table, above). The great joke is that the difference between the two parties is actually within the margin of error. Government is a gargantuan machine that just can’t be controlled to that degree of precision: a billion quid is, to Whitehall, a rounding error.   Today’s public finances have demonstrated that. The UK government had actually intended to borrow around £102 billion at this stage

Monday

Matt Cavanagh

The implications of today’s border security report

Today brought closure of a kind to last year’s border fiasco (which I covered for Coffee House here and here), with the publication of the report by the Chief Inspector of the UK Border Agency, John Vine. On first reading, there is no ‘smoking gun’ which would trigger a ministerial resignation. The report does find that, in early 2011, the immigration minister Damian Green had authorised the relaxation of one of the checks at the centre of the controversy: ‘Secure ID’, which verifies the fingerprints of foreign travellers with visas. But the report also finds that Green’s authorisation should have been superseded by later instructions from the Home Secretary Theresa

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories desert Cable in the Commons

When a Secretary of State is in trouble, it is traditional that his governmental colleagues rally to his side. But as Vince Cable defended overruling the Business Select Committee’s objections to Les Ebdon, there was but one Tory Cabinet minister on the front bench. This despite Cable having rung round private offices in search of support, as Patrick Wintour reports. In total there were three Tories on the front bench for most of the statement, Cable’s junior minister Mark Prisk, the whip Mark Francois and the Leader of the House Sir George Young in his normal seat. The absence of Tory ministers combined with 13 hostile questions from Tory backbenchers

Peter Hoskin

Miliband guarantees a return to Brown’s Big Idea for the NHS

It would be so much easier for Ed Miliband to attract headlines if he could shout in Andrew Lansley’s face. As it is, the Labour leader has had to make do with giving a speech today attacking the NHS reforms. Within the parameters of what he might say, it’s an okay effort. The predictable lines about ‘creeping privatisation’ are leavened by the admission that ‘the question is not reform or no reform. It is what type of reform.’ And he adds, by way of a cross-party sweetener, that he would ‘get round the table’ with David Cameron to discuss ‘the future of the NHS’. But the substance of the speech,

Peter Hoskin

A question of trust for Andrew Lansley

It’s not too surprising that people trust ‘organisations representing doctors nurses and other health professionals,’ well above David Cameron and Andrew Lansley, when it comes to the NHS reforms. People are sceptical of politicians in a way that they aren’t of the health service, its unions and its workers. 64 years of ‘national religion’ status for the NHS, and many more years of gross political let-down, have made sure of that. But today’s YouGov findings still shine a fresh light on Cameron and Lansley’s changing approach to the reforms. A year ago, they clearly looked at charts such as that above and thought, ‘Woah, we’d better get those organisations on

Peter Hoskin

If Cameron doesn’t talk about greater powers for England, Labour will

Action over Scotland is certainly producing a reaction in England. It’s not what you’d call an ‘equal and opposite reaction’ yet, but it’s there — and it’s crystallised by Tim Montgomerie’s article for the Guardian this morning. I’d recommend that you read it in full, but Tim’s basic point is that David Cameron could score a ‘triple crown of political victories’ by moving towards a more federal UK: ‘By offering to extend Scottish devolution he can be the Conservative leader who saves the union. By promising to balance Scottish devolution with a commitment to new arrangements for the government of England, he can radically improve his own party’s electoral prospects.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Tory Ministers need to back the Health Bill

Tomorrow’s Downing Street meeting on the implementation of the health reforms is meant to send the message that the bill is definitely going ahead. Number 10 is keen to shore up the bill ahead of Liberal Democrat Spring Conference following the uncertainty caused by Rachel Sylvester’s column and Conservative Home’s call for the bill to be dropped. Indeed, I understand that at the Quad dinner on Monday night, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander made the basic political point that the Liberal Democrats would feel absolved of the need to support the bill if any Tory minister came out publicly against it. But Tory ministers still need to muster more public

Friday

James Forsyth

Cameron’s ECHR problems won’t end with a Qatada deal

The news that Theresa May will fly to Jordan to continue talks about Abu Qatada shows how close the government thinks it is to a deal with the Jordanians that might satisfy the European Court of Human Rights and allow his deportation. One government source explained to me earlier that the problem is the Jordanians are offended by being asked to provide these guarantees about a fair trial and no evidence being obtained by torture. For this reason, there needs to be a fair amount of diplomatic stroking. A deal with Jordan on Abu Qatada is becoming increasingly necessary if Cameron is get out of this bind on the ECHR,

Peter Hoskin

Miliband’s NHS pledge

Ah, there he is! With the coalition — and David Cameron — dominating the political news on every day of this half-term week, Ed Miliband has finally caused a ripple in the national consciousness. He’s appearing before nurses in Bolton today to make a pledge: ‘Before he became Prime Minister, David Cameron concealed his plans for creeping privatisation of our National Health Service. So people didn’t get a vote on these plans at the last election. But I give you my word that if he goes ahead, they will be a defining issue at the next.’ Put aside the rhetoric about ‘creeping privatisation’ (which would surely make Tony Blair shudder),

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s new offer for Scotland could mean a new offer for England

The consensus opinion across most of today’s papers appears to be that Dave done good in Scotland yesterday. And now the Prime Minister’s cause has been helped that little bit more by the Lords Constitution Committee. ‘We are firmly of the view that any referendum that is held must be a straight choice between full independence or the status-quo,’ says the committee’s chairman Baroness Jay. ‘A third “devolution-max” option is clearly something every part of the UK must have a say in as it has the potential to create different and competing tax regimes within the UK.’ The strange thing is, a UK-wide referendum on ‘devo max’ could actually produce

Thursday

Hamish Macdonell

Cameron’s risky move could play into Salmond’s hands

Not many politicians would conjure up the spectre of Alec Douglas-Home to scare the Prime Minister, but that is exactly what Alex Salmond did today — to some effect. The Scottish First Minister was responding to David Cameron’s ‘jam tomorrow’ offer to the Scottish people. ‘Vote “no” in the independence referendum,’ Mr Cameron effectively told Scots today in his latest attempt to make some progress in the independence debate, ‘And I’ll see that you get major new powers for the Scottish Parliament.’ It was one part bribery, one part political strategy and Mr Salmond was on to it quicker than the average Scot can order a haggis supper. ‘We’ve been

Peter Hoskin

The Lib Dems prepare their strategy for future coalitions

Contain your excitement, CoffeeHousers: the Lib Dems are debating whether to change their ‘constitution’ so that their members have a greater say over future coalition negotiations. The amendment has been put forward Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, and proposes that, in the event of coalition talks, the party’s ‘negotiating team’ should have to consult with a ‘reference group consisting of not more than nine people appointed equally by…’ blah, blah, blah. In fact, you can just read the whole thing on page 41 of this document. The Lib Dems will be voting on it at their Spring Conference next month. But while internal Lib Dem governance may not be the

Peter Hoskin

At least it won’t go to penalties…

Who’s winning in the latest match between Vince Cable and the Conservatives? The Business Secretary did take an early lead, with the news that No.10 had grudgingly yielded to his demand to appoint Professor Les Ebdon to the role of ‘university admissions tsar’ — a man who has hardly been kind about the coalition’s universities policy in the past, and whose appointment had been blocked by the business select committee. But, according to the Telegraph this morning, the Tory leadership appear to have scored a goal of their own: Cable’s proposal for imposing penalties on graduates who pay off their student loans early is to be dropped. We can, and

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Post-Moody’s, King backs Osborne

Moody’s doubts might not be making much difference to the actual economy, but they could make a good deal of difference to the political battle being waged over it. George Osborne, of course, is citing this as further proof of the need for fiscal consolidation. Ed Balls, meanwhile, is redoubling his call for a ‘change of course’ — and somewhat misleadingly too. But what does Mervyn King think? Thanks to his comments in a press conference this morning, we don’t have to guess. Here’s how Bloomberg reported them earlier: ‘“It’s a reminder that we are facing a very challenging path to reduce the scale of our deficit so that, at

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Inflation falls as the VAT rise drops out

Late last year, the Tory party’s brains trust found that the inflation numbers corresponded directly to whether or not people thought that the economy was on the right track. When inflation was going up double-quick, the ‘wrong track’ numbers went up. But when the pace of inflation slowed, the ‘right track’ numbers increased. It is for this reason that the Tories are quietly confident that this year will see an uptick in economic confidence. They expect the inflation rate to fall steadily throughout the year as the VAT rise drops its way out of the calculation and the effects of the oil shock recede. Obviously, though, today’s inflation numbers will

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A warning for Osborne and his economic agenda

Why did Moody’s downgrade Britain to AAA with a negative outlook, but leave other countries on AAA? One crucial factor is the scale of our debt increase: 60 per cent over the parliament. You won’t find it mentioned much today. The Chancellor is talking about austerity, helped by Balls who talks about his harsh deep cuts. Osborne today swears to keep ‘dealing with the debt’ — but his definition of ‘dealing with debt’ would even make an Italian blush: As Balls said on the radio this morning, the plan isn’t working. But Balls’ narrative — that Osborne is cutting harsh and deep — is untrue, as Moody’s knows. Osborne’s real

Peter Hoskin

Labour’s plan would have cost us our AAA rating

For Ed Balls this morning, there is only one conclusion to be drawn from the news about our credit rating: ‘A change of course is needed.’ But to what? Balls no doubt means a shallower course of deficit reduction — less far, less fast. But Moody’s are clear that we have been placed on a negative outlook because of doubts that our fiscal consolidation will continue strongly enough. Specifically, they say that, ‘Any further abrupt economic or fiscal deterioration would put into question the government’s ability to place the debt burden on a downward trajectory by fiscal year 2015-16.’ So how would Labour have fared? We already know that they