China

Welcome to the Year of the Pig

Happy Chinese New Year, or at least let’s hope so. The chubby pig of 2019 is an obvious symbol of wealth; but being both pragmatists and optimists where money is concerned, the Chinese easily find reasons to associate all 12 of their zodiac creatures, (including 2018’s dog) with rising prosperity. This year, however, the amount spent by their shoppers and tourists during the New Year festivities will be compared against last year’s figure of $190 billion for signs of a weakening economy. We already know that trade tensions with the US and other negative factors have been afflicting Chinese sales of western imports, from iPhones to Land Rovers, and that

The UK’s shift in attitude to the threat of China

Gavin Williamson’s speech today is another demonstration of how the UK government’s attitude to China has changed. In the Cameron Osborne era, the UK was determined to be China’s best friend in the West. All the emphasis was on creating a ‘golden era’ in Anglo-Chinese relations. But now, the government strikes a more realistic—and hawkish—tone on China. In his speech today, Williamson brackets China with Russia as a threat. The headlines today have been about Williamson’s decision to send the UK’s new aircraft carrier, carrying both US and UK jets, to the Pacific in a message to Beijing. But just as telling is the emphasis that Williamson places on various

The Fed’s U-turn on rates is a reality check, not a sop to Trump

Has ‘Jay’ Powell gone wobbly, or does he know something we don’t? That was the question being asked after the US Federal Reserve, of which Powell is chairman, kept dollar interest rates on hold last week — rather than continuing to notch them upwards as it has been doing for two years — and hinted that the next move might actually be downwards. Trade tension with China, the impact of Donald Trump’s government shutdown and the risk of a no-deal Brexit were all cited as ‘cross-currents’ affecting the decision, but pundits led by Wall Street ‘bond king’ Jeffrey Gundlach declared the Fed to be ‘caving in’ to the demands of

China’s obsession with Taiwan is nothing to do with money

Does President Xi’s first address of the new year spell trouble for Taiwan? In a 30 minute speech on Taiwan, Xi used much fiercer language than his predecessors on Taiwan’s reunification. Journalists have reported it as ‘chest-beating’ and ‘threatening’. Phrases like ‘the reunification of Taiwan…is the inevitable requirement of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ and ‘we do not promise to renounce the use of force’ certainly don’t bode well. But the speech is actually interesting for a different reason: it reveals why the Chinese are so obsessed with Taiwan. Many outside China don’t understand why a country of 1.7 billion people with the world’s second largest economy is so obsessed

The Spectator Podcast: time to make your own mind up about a no-deal Brexit

Lorries backing up in Kent, a Mars bar shortage, and no more Rome city breaks – these are just some of the things that we have been warned about when it comes to a no deal Brexit. But what will really happen? In this week’s cover piece, Ross Clark weighs up the pros and the cons. It’s fairly neutral, but on the podcast, we hear from two people who are anything but. Lord Peter Lilley, Tory MP, has said that a no-deal Brexit would be better than the status quo; he’s joined by Ian Dunt, editor of politics.co.uk, who thinks that it would be an ‘unmitigated disaster’. It was a

Why China needs a deal with Donald Trump

China’s leadership knows it has badly underestimated the Trump administration’s will to raise the stakes on the trade front. They therefore hope that today’s meeting between the president and Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires produces a return to the status quo ante. The ideal outcome for Beijing would be agreement to establish an on-going dialogue similar to the one conducted earlier this century in which China could dictate the pace of concessions in order to alleviate the pressure from sanctions. This would be based on making the most of the Trump’s positive evaluation of his personal relationship with the Chinese leader and concern in the administration at the impact of

The great Chinese power grab

Five years ago President Xi Jinping gave a speech in Kazakhstan, launching the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’, a wildly ambitious set of Chinese-backed infrastructure projects stretching through the steppes of central Asia to the Baltic Sea. Hundreds of billions of dollars later, this project more than any other has come to define China’s radical ambitions to upend a world order long dominated by Americans and Europeans. In 2015, Peter Frankopan, a dashing Oxford academic, wrote The Silk Roads, a weighty and widely acclaimed history of the ancient trading routes that once linked China to the world. It became a bestseller, partly because Frankopan, unusually for an academic, knows how to

Can Dolce & Gabbana bounce back from its China disaster?

Sitting in a bar in Shanghai, each person at our table is listing all the Dolce & Gabbana items they have in their closet. In a normal setting this would be crass, but today they’re deciding what to burn. Dolce is not cheap and my friends would have saved up to buy one of their pieces, yet the brand is now so unpopular that they are considering not just a boycott, but total incineration. From social media it’s clear that we are not unique in China, where the outrage against Dolce began with their adverts for their ‘Great Show’ fashion event in Shanghai. Short video clips, which were subsequently removed from

China’s crackdown on Muslims in Xinjiang is sure to backfire

After repeated denials, Chinese officials finally admitted last month that they have set up internment camps in the far-western province of Xinjiang, where up to one million ethnic Uighurs, almost all of whom are Muslim, are being held. Under China’s anti-terrorism law and ‘religious affairs regulation,’ the government in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region publicly introduced the ‘Regulation on De-extremification.’ What it describes is a new gulag, where re-education and the suppression of Uighur identity is its main goal. There are approximately 25 million Muslims in China today, but these new draconian laws in Xinjiang are aimed solely at the ethnic Uighurs, of which there are just over 11 million. Unlike the

The all-seeing state

The bullet train from Beijing to Shanghai is the fastest in the world. It takes just over four hours to travel the 819-mile journey. From the train, it is impossible to ignore China’s economic success. There are cities the size of London that many westerners will never even have heard of. They are filled with glass towers and shopping centres, selling Cartier watches and Gucci bags. As the train sets off from each station, an announcement plays in both Chinese and stilted English: ‘Dear passengers, people who travel without a ticket or behave disorderly, or smoke in public areas, will be punished according to regulations and the behaviour will be

Chinese vaccine giant gets a taste of its own medicine

A few months ago I wrote about the damning revelations surrounding one of China’s most trusted vaccines providers. Changsheng Biotech had been profiteering from the creation and distribution of useless vaccines for children. First, they mixed old vaccines with new ones when selling jabs meant to immunise against diphtheria, whooping cough, and tetanus (all three diseases are potentially fatal to infants); then, a year later, they faked the production dates and batch numbers of rabies vaccines. The punishment for the first drugs transgression was a mere 3.4 million yuan – less than £400,000, and only 0.0003 per cent of the company’s annual turnover. It was no more than a slap on

Politics trumps trade

‘What the hell is going on?’ That anxious wail of economic incomprehension has been heard ever since President Trump decided last January to impose tens of billions of dollars of tariffs on China and other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the member states of the EU. The wail went up another octave last week as the White House announced a further $200 billion in tariffs. Among the politicians and think tanks of Washington DC, where I have spent the past few days, there is talk of little else; talk rendered more feverish by the prospect of midterm elections in November. A hundred billion here, a hundred billion there — pretty

Trading blows

Donald Trump campaigned as an unrepentant protectionist and, on the face of it, he has lived up to his word. He has torn up the US-Pacific free- trade partnership, threatened the European Union with trade wars and imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of imports from China. As you might expect, Beijing’s retaliation has been immediate — as has the damage. American cherry growers, for example, estimate that they have lost about $85 million after suffering retaliatory surcharges. Farmers are now having to be bailed out by the US government. Yet this week Trump has doubled down, introducing tariffs on another 6,000 Chinese imports. When China responds in kind,

The Vatican is strengthening its ties with China. But at what cost?

In the last decade or so there has been a thawing of relations between China and the Holy See. Sure, China can still be harsh in its treatment of some Catholics and the Vatican continues to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but a change is coming. Earlier this year, there was talk of a potential deal between Beijing and the Vatican, which would see China recognising the Pope as head of Chinese Catholics, in return the Vatican would give the Chinese government a say in the appointment of bishops. This week, we hear from two sources close to the negotiations that the deal is to be signed imminently – before

Letters | 13 September 2018

No debt without credit Sir: Liam Halligan and William Galston set out, convincingly, all the causes and effects of the 2008 crash, painting a doom-laden picture of the future of the world (‘The world the crash made’, 8 September). Not once do they mention China, which has to be the beneficiary of the consequential increase in global debt. Neither mentions that for every debtor there is a creditor. When I first worked in the financial world many years ago, the US was the world’s biggest creditor, Glass Steagall reigned supreme and, with growth slow but steady, everything seemed under control. But the Big Bang and Clinton’s repeal of GS opened

The truth about China’s investment in Africa

The Spectator’s leading article last week ended up saying ‘It is unrealistic to expect that we can achieve what China has in Africa over the past decade.’ If we were to have done that, I for one would wish to resign my British nationality. What they have done there for the past 30 years is to systematically rape and pillage the continent. China has insidiously worked its way into Africa by establishing ‘private’ contractors who then bid for building work and underbid all local opposition by being state-funded. Many local firms were thus put out of business. Their ‘aid’ projects — starting with the ill-fated TanZam railway — were funded

Letters | 6 September 2018

Chinese burn Sir: Your leading article last week ended up saying ‘It is unrealistic to expect that we can achieve what China has in Africa over the past decade.’ If we were to have done that, I for one would wish to resign my British nationality. What they have done there for the past 30 years is to systematically rape and pillage the continent. China has insidiously worked its way into Africa by establishing ‘private’ contractors who then bid for building work and underbid all local opposition by being state-funded. Many local firms were thus put out of business. Their ‘aid’ projects — starting with the ill-fated TanZam railway —

Books Podcast: How the 2008 crash changed the world

In this week’s Books Podcast, I’m joined by the economic historian Adam Tooze, author of the new book Crashed: How A Decade of Financial Crises Changed The World. How are the subprime collapse in the US and the Eurozone crisis that came after linked? Why did a cartel of mega-wealthy businessmen do a good job at rescuing the US from disaster, and a group of well-intentioned political technocrats make such a hash of it in Europe? And how is the Balance of Financial Terror between the US and China holding up these days? Here’s some stuff you won’t learn from Michael Lewis… 

China’s child vaccine scandal spells big trouble for president Xi

The word changsheng means ‘long life’. But Gao Junfang’s Changsheng Biotech has long been in the business of robbing its victims of just that. Since taking over the company in the nineties, Gao oversaw the privatisation of the state-owned big pharma and turned it into her personal dynasty. She secured majority shares and planted her husband, her children, and their partners into the meatiest roles in the company. For decades, Gao was the entrepreneurial poster child – from rags (sort of) to riches, a walking example of the possibilities of China’s economic growth, and an idol especially for women. But last month, Gao was arrested along with 17 other people in the company.

Xi Jinping avoids the Hundred Acre Wood

Why does President Xi Jinping of China dislike being compared to Winnie-the-Pooh? The new film about Christopher Robin and his teddy bear has been banned in China, apparently because Chinese dissidents make the comparison. True, Pooh is a bear of very little brain, lacks leadership skills and is somewhat stout, but it seems a friendly thought all the same. Wouldn’t a dictator be pleased to be considered cuddly? It is interesting that characters from children’s books are seen as subversive. Saparmurat Niyazov (‘Turkmenbashi’), the late dictator of Turkmenistan, passed a law banning anyone from dressing up as a hobbit. I wonder if, in Pooh’s case, there is some cultural misunderstanding.