Budget

With Budget week finally at an end, certain mysteries remain. Chief among them is why the Chancellor decided to give an emergency speech preparing the public for a rise in income tax. On 4 November, Rachel Reeves summoned journalists to Downing Street early in the morning to warn that ‘the productivity performance we inherited is weaker than previously thought’. She then refused to rule out hiking income tax rates – sending a clear signal to markets that rises were coming. Nine days later, however, the Treasury let it be known via the FT that income tax increases would not be needed after all. When the gilt market reacted badly –

Tim Shipman sits down with Professor David Miles of the Office for Budget Responsibility the day after a Budget overshadowed by an extraordinary leak. David sets out what the OBR now believes about growth, headroom and productivity — and why the UK’s long-term prospects look weaker than hoped. He discusses the political choices behind back-loaded tax rises, the decision not to score the workers’ rights reforms, and why Britain is so slow to adopt its own inventions. Plus: what the OBR’s new leak investigation will look like, and how confident we should really be in those fiscal forecasts. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

As Budget days go, today was unprecedented. The complete list of measures announced by Rachel Reeves – along with their costings and economic impacts – was leaked by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) an hour before the Chancellor took to her feet. The OBR apologised and called it a ‘technical error’. The headline is tax hikes to the tune of £26 billion, income tax thresholds will be frozen again and the tax burden will hit a record high at 38 per cent of GDP. Was this the most farcical Budget in history? Michael Simmons speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman.

To submit your urgent questions to Michael and Maddie, go to: spectator.co.uk/quiteright This week on Quite right!: Rachel Reeves goes on the offensive – and the defensive. After her surprise Downing Street address, Michael and Maddie pick over the many kites that have been flying in advance of the Budget at the end of the month. Was she softening the public up for tax rises, or trying to save her own job? Michael explains why Reeves is wrong to say that Labour’s inheritance is the reason for our current economic misfortune and says that it is ‘absolute bollocks’ that Brexit is to blame. Next, a chilling weekend of violence sparks

Kemi Badenoch continues to look more confident at PMQs – although there are always going to be some easy goals when you lead on the economy. Today she pressed the Prime Minister on Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance – which he dodged – as well as repeating her offer to work with Labour towards a cross-party solution to the welfare problem. What do we know about the Budget at the end of next month? And are we any closer to understanding what a ‘working person’ actually is?  Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

With every new poll predicting a Reform win at the next general election, the party continues its preparation for government. James Heale joins Oscar Edmondson and Tim Shipman to talk about his article in the magazine looking at what – or who – is shaping Reform’s intellectual revolution. Cambridge intellectual James Orr, close friend to J.D. Vance, has recently joined as an adviser, following in the footsteps of recent defector Danny Kruger, who was widely seen as an intellectual heavyweight on Conservative benches.  Tim also discusses his piece looking at the narrative Rachel Reeves is trying to set ahead of next month’s budget. Tim says she has four audiences and

On this week’s special Saturday edition of Coffee House Shots, James Heale sits down with Jeremy Hunt to discuss his new book, Can We Be Great Again?. The former chancellor and foreign secretary argues that Britain remains one of the world’s most influential nations – but is in danger of losing its nerve. He reflects on working in the Foreign Office during Donald Trump’s first term, makes the case for the BBC as a tool of soft power, and admits he wanted to be the first chancellor since 1997 to deliver a Budget with a whisky in hand. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Patrick Gibbons.

This afternoon, Rachel Reeves made good on her promise to deliver only one fiscal set piece per calendar year by announcing what is widely being considered a Budget… this precedes a spending review in the summer and an actual Budget in the autumn. The headline is that the Chancellor had to find £15 billion in spending cuts to restore her headroom and keep within her own ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules. This comes after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) confirmed that the £9.9 billion margin she left herself in the autumn has disappeared. The OBR has also halved its growth projections – bleak news for the government. Among the announcements: further

Kate Andrews is joined by Katy Balls and the OBR’s Prof David Miles to discuss the day two reactions to Rachel Reeves’s Budget. Who were the losers, and is it too early to say who the winners are? Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Cindy Yu.

It’s Budget week (finally)! How this week goes will set the tone for Labour’s first year in office. It’s fair to say that expectations are relatively low – with the Prime Minister himself warning of ‘painful decisions’ ahead. We know a lot of what will likely be included and Treasury sources are keen to play down talk of any Budget rabbits – suggesting a mix of the measures currently being discussed in the media. So what should we expect? And can Labour ride out the week unscathed? Also on the podcast, Labour have suspended the whip for Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, after he appeared to threaten a

Who exactly are ‘working people’? The Labour party’s use of this phrase during the election raised questions over who they will really be levying taxes upon. With less than a week to go until the Budget, Labour in government is now again struggling to give a clear definition of what they mean. James Heale talks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews. Produced by Cindy Yu.