Brexit

Some thoughts on the arrival in office of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, based on his first speech, his first appointments and some conversations with people in different parts of the Conservative party and Whitehall today.  These are not all my own predictions; some belong to others. But they’re under my name, so I’ll be happy to answer for them when – and if – they’re proven wrong: 1. A no-deal exit from the EU is much more likely than financial markets currently imply, and much more likely to become the de facto object of UK government policy Johnson’s speech gave him very, very little room for manoeuvre over Brexit. As

The penny has finally dropped here in Berlin. After the Brexit party’s success in the European elections – and several missed Brexit deadlines later – most Germans are slowly realising that Brexit will happen. There are some who still hope that the offer of a new Brexit extension – as Ursula von der Leyen has indicated might be on offer – could mean a second referendum, or revocation of Article 50. But fewer now believe either of those remain realistic possibilities. And with Boris Johnson likely to be in Downing Street by tomorrow, these options become harder still to imagine. One leader of the pro-EU movement here – who has been

Before he even gets in to Number 10, Boris Johnson must make one of the most important calls of his premiership. As I say in the Sun this morning, he must decide what his Brexit plan is. On Wednesday, calls with European leaders will begin—and Boris Johnson will have to know what he wants to tell them. As one of those preparing him for government puts it, ‘They’ll call him to say congratulations—and he’ll have to set out his stall’. This is crucial because the European Commission will refuse to negotiate with Boris’s government unless it is instructed to do so by the member states. Within the Johnson camp, there

Darren Grimes has won his appeal against a £20,000 fine imposed by the Electoral Commission. Grimes, the 25-year-old who ran the BeLeave campaign group, was accused by the watchdog of breaching expenditure rules during the EU referendum. Following proceedings which saw Grimes crowdfund his legal campaign, Judge Marc Dight has ruled that the fine be withdrawn. The Guardian reports: ‘Dight agreed with Grimes’ counsel that the campaigner had not intended to mislead and had been confused by the Electoral Commission’s registration form. He further concluded that the commission had failed to satisfy itself beyond reasonable doubt that BeLeave was not a genuine unincorporated association, and therefore was not able to

There is no love lost between Dominic Grieve and his local Tory party association, but Mr S. thinks that the MP for Beaconsfield’s latest comments will hardly help matters. At an event in London, Grieve said there had been a ‘Talibanisation’ of the Tory party. He also said that a fear of being deselected was putting Tory MPs off from speaking out against a no-deal Brexit: ‘There has been a sort of Talibanisation of sections of the Conservative party grassroots membership with some vociferous minorities – but often capable of dominating meetings coming along and trying to get rid of MPs interestingly enough who’ve been totally loyal. Who’ve simply indicated