Brexit

Six MPs who doubted Boris Johnson would do a Brexit deal

Boris Johnson has got a new Brexit deal. It’s true that the Prime Minister has some way to go if he is to get the agreement over the line, not least in trying to persuade the DUP to back it. But Mr S remembers a time not too long ago when plenty were claiming the PM wouldn’t – and didn’t even want to – get this far. Here are six MPs who claimed Boris Johnson was never serious about reaching a new agreement with the EU: Philip Hammond The former chancellor claimed last month that Boris Johnson was surrounded by ‘radicals’ who had no intention of doing a deal. On the

James Forsyth

The EU might tell MPs: it’s this deal or no deal

Both the UK government and the EU are now saying that a Brexit deal has been done. There is both a revised withdrawal agreement and political declaration.  However, the DUP are not yet on board. This makes it very hard to see how this deal can pass the Commons. At Cabinet yesterday, Chief Whip Mark Spencer went through the numbers and his calculations suggested a majority of one. His assumption was that every Tory MP who still has the whip would back it, as would 15 of the 21 Tory rebels and the DUP. The government could also rely on the support of the nine Labour or independent MPs who

James Forsyth

A Brexit deal will completely change the electoral landscape

Expect the unexpected has been the rule in British politics these last few years. But even so, few would have predicted the events of the past week. Last Tuesday evening the Brexit talks seemed dead. Even the most mild-mannered figures in Downing Street held out little hope of a deal this side of an election. That all began to shift, though, after Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar met last Thursday. What changed was that they both realised that the other was serious about a deal. They stopped seeing each other’s proposals as a trap and began engaging with them. This doesn’t guarantee a deal, though. Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar’s

Boris Johnson must still keep no deal firmly in his mind

The Irish backstop and the arrangements to replace it are now the focus of the eleventh-hour Brexit talks. Their importance is not because of Ireland, but because of the battle for the UK’s constitutional freedom to decide the laws that govern this country’s economy and trade. Will the UK’s economic system break free of EU law allowing both an independent trade policy and the UK’s laws to diverge from the EU’s? ‘That is the point of our exit,’ as Boris Johnson told Donald Tusk in August. Or will there be continued subjugation or an eventual UK return to the bloc? All depends on whether Boris Johnson’s government, unlike Theresa May’s,

James Forsyth

Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds hold the key to a Brexit deal

Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds are currently the two most important politicians on the European continent. If the DUP is happy, there’ll be a Brexit deal between the UK and the EU. If it is not, it is hard to see how there can be—it is almost impossible to see how an agreement that they are opposed to can pass the Commons. At the moment, the DUP have not said they are happy. I understand that there was some movement from the Irish on consent this morning. But that softening hasn’t yet been enough to win around the DUP. They would like something that would enable them to say that

Steerpike

Watch: Mark Francois rebukes ‘stop Brexit’ protester

We’re still waiting to hear what Mark Francois – and the rest of the ERG – make of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. But while Westminster waits with bated breath, Francois has delivered a withering verdict on SW1’s noisiest inhabitant: the ‘stop Brexit’ protester. Francois was about to give his answer during an interview on the BBC only to be loudly interrupted with yells of ‘stop Brexit’ and ‘revoke Article 50’. The Tory MP’s response? ‘If we leave it will be delightful that this idiot will shut up’. Mr S isn’t so sure that will happen…

Ross Clark

‘Remain or Leave?’ is no longer the key Brexit question

In an astonishing interview on the Today programme this morning, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson tried to explain why she was tabling an amendment which would force a referendum on any deal the government presents to the House of Commons on the grounds that we should ‘let the people decide’. She then asserted that the country had changed its mind since the 2016 referendum and now wanted to remain. It had to be pointed out to her that her party has, in fact, just adopted a policy of reversing Article 50 without a referendum – so much for letting the people decide. The truth is that like so many Remain

Tom Slater

What Extinction Rebellion and the People’s Vote campaign have in common

Extinction Rebellion (XR) has announced it will finish its ‘Autumn Uprising’ earlier than planned in order to make way for the People’s Vote march on Saturday. The two groups have been in informal discussions for some time aimed at avoiding getting in one another’s way, according to a report in the Times. Even if the Metropolitan Police’s draconian city-wide ban on XR may have made such a deal unnecessary, it reminds us how much the groups have in common. It’s not exactly a stretch to say these two predominantly bourgeois movements may have some crossover in support. Talking to the Times, People’s Vote comms chief Tom Baldwin said: ‘I don’t

The EU’s Brexit unicorns

The Brexit talks are at a critical stage as we approach this week’s European Council summit. The rumoured landing zone for a deal – essentially a version of the ‘Chequers’ proposals for customs, but applied to Northern Ireland only – is promising. But to get there, both sides will need to compromise – and that applies to the EU as much as it does to the UK. In the Brexit debate, both politicians and governments in the UK are routinely accused of putting forward ‘unrealistic’ or ‘non-negotiable’ proposals. The word ‘unicorn’ is thrown around and often, the criticism is fair. Simplistic demands from UK politicians to ‘simply take out the

Toby Young

Is hate crime really on the rise?

The Guardian ran a story on its website today headlined: ‘Hate crimes doubled in England and Wales in five years.’ Alarming if true, but is it? The story is based on some data released by the Home Office today which, on the face of it, does appear to show the number of hate crimes increasing. The number of hate crimes recorded by the police in England and Wales in 2018-19 was 103,397, up from 94,121 in 2017-18, a rise of ten per cent. But drill down into the report, and the picture becomes more hazy. The word doing most of the work here is ‘recorded’. Yes, the number of recorded

Steerpike

Watch: Emily Thornberry accused of sexism for Commons jibe

Emily Thornberry has had a busy day in the Commons. Labour’s shadow foreign secretary heckled her counterpart Dominic Raab this morning after he claimed Jeremy Corbyn wanted Britain to withdraw from Nato. Now, she’s been at it again: apparently yelling the word ‘bollocks’ at international development secretary Alok Sharma during a testy exchange. John Bercow then stepped in to calm things down. Only for Tory MP Hugo Swire to accuse Thornberry of being sexist. Mr S wonders whether Boris Johnson might have been right to prorogue parliament after all…

Nick Cohen

A People’s Vote is no substitute for an effective opposition

Sympathetic journalists covering the Remain movement are stuck by how far away it is from the ugliness of politics. Its activists are, to use a word that damns with faint praise, ‘nice’. It is better to be nice than vicious, of course. It is better to be nice than mendacious and unscrupulous and so criminally irresponsible you would burn down the whole country rather than admit to a mistake. But, we liberal reporters flinch at the sight of all the niceness. The nice never win a war, we think. Nice gets you nowhere in modern Britain. When we ask how they will deal with thugs and manipulators of the calibre

Robert Peston

Boris Johnson’s humiliating Brexit options

We should know on Wednesday night whether Boris Johnson has his Brexit deal proper, or whether he has an outline deal that will require a few more weeks of technical talks, or whether the gap is unbridgeable. Why? Because Donald Tusk has made it clear there will be no serious negotiations at the EU council itself on Thursday and Friday, just a rubber stamping exercise. But Johnson knows that if he wants an actual deal this week, he’ll have to sign up to something very like a Northern Ireland-only backstop, which would represent a massive eating of humble pie – not cake – for him. It would also be hard

Sadiq Khan’s selective concern about ‘voter suppression’

Sadiq Khan has got some front. He is complaining about the government’s voter ID plans, claiming it will lead to ‘voter suppression’. And yet he is engaged in the most explicit and awful act of voter suppression in the living memory of this country — the elitist effort to suppress the votes of the 17.4m people who backed Brexit. Sometimes you wonder if the Remain-leaning elites can even hear themselves. These people have spent almost three years agitating against the largest democratic vote in UK history. Some of them want the vote to be revoked entirely (the ‘Liberal’ ‘Democrats’) while others, like Sadiq, want a second referendum to override the

Can ministers really hold their nerve on Brexit this week?

Boris Johnson is now in what’s known in cricket as the ‘Nervous Nineties’, when a batsman becomes so anxious about reaching his century that he takes unusually conservative decisions – or is so nervous he accidentally gets himself out. We are now in what could be the final few days of the Brexit negotiations, and the Prime Minister is trying to be unusually cautious about what’s said and done. Ministers are being urged to hold their nerve rather than make comments which could push the talks off course, and No. 10 is remaining very tight-lipped. In a cabinet call this afternoon which a number of ministers described as ‘businesslike’, Johnson

James Kirkup

If Boris does a Brexit deal, it will be because of the ‘Surrender Act’

Will he strike a deal with the EU allowing Britain to leave this month? Will he compromise on the Irish border? I don’t know what Boris Johnson will do. I’ve thought for some time that he and the Conservatives would be quite willing to compromise on Northern Ireland’s future status, but I’ve also often wondered whether some people close to him would be quite happy to charge towards a no-deal exit in hope of smashing through all those who would stand in the way. Let us assume the current talks with the EU are being held in good faith on both sides. This does make sense: both sides’ best interests

Is a deal really possible?

It is one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent political history. On Wednesday afternoon, the Brexit talks seemed pretty much dead—hence my piece in the magazine this week. Even the optimists in Downing Street were struggling to see anyway through. But by Friday lunchtime, the UK and the EU were agreeing to intensify negotiations as they searched for a deal. As I say in The Sun this morning, the negotiations going on in Brussels this weekend are serious: they aren’t just for the show. This doesn’t, though, mean that a deal will definitely be done. But things are on the move. Now, the sheer pace of this turnaround is

Brexit party voters will decide Boris Johnson’s fate

The fate of Boris Johnson’s premiership will be determined by Nigel Farage and the Brexit party. Even if a Brexit deal can be agreed, another extension to the deadline of 31 October still seems possible. If the can is kicked down the road, the question of how Farage’s voters will react is key. Without the support of Brexit party voters, Boris Johnson could wake after the next election to find himself and his party still trapped in a hung parliament. But if he wins over half of Farage’s supporters, while the Remain camp is divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, then he could land nearly 350 seats and a comfortable