Brexit

Donald Trump has reason to feel good about the British election. The success of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was the harbinger of Trump’s own sensational victory against Hillary Clinton five months later. Will history now repeat itself, with Boris Johnson’s triumph heralding Trump’s re-election? What connected Brexit to the Trump-Clinton race was the stagnation of conventional left-right politics on both sides of the Atlantic. In each country, a critical mass of voters on the right were sick of leaders who embraced a neoliberal version of conservatism — soft on immigration, accommodating toward liberal cultural values, and more concerned with maximising returns to globalisation than with strengthening the bargaining power

It’s tense for us Brexiteers, isn’t it? We know that if the Tories don’t secure a Commons majority today then our country probably won’t end up leaving the EU at all. Almost certainly, an alliance of pro-Remain parties would put Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. They would keep him there just long enough for Remain to win a low-turnout second referendum. Many Leave voters would boycott such a vote on the grounds of it being a stitch-up that offers a choice between actually staying in the EU and virtually staying in it, just without any political representation. So it is quite understandable that our nerves are frayed just now. But

In the end it probably comes down to four things, most of them momentous, about the power of the people, and the very structure of the country. First, this is your only chance to decide whether the UK leaves the EU at the end of January or whether you want a referendum next year that could reverse the result of the previous Brexit referendum. Second, if you are north of the border, this is an opportunity to signal whether you want another referendum on whether Scotland remains part of the UK. Third, if you believe that the power of the private sector has increased excessively since the 1980s, this is your chance

Whatever the results on Thursday, there have been aspects of this election campaign not revealed by polling. My experience of speaking and campaigning in my MEP patch in the North West has been revelatory. I am in awe of a layer of new activists who have been inspired to want more fundamental change than that offered by the establishment parties. Many are new to politics, have found their voice and have discovered the power of being actively engaged. It reminds me of a far earlier experience of the miners’ strike, when miners’ wives groups sprang up nationally and formidable women started to take control.  It’s exhilarating to be with people for

Everyone seems agreed. Although the numbers may not have moved much, this election is still wide open. So anyone who tries to predict the outcome in the final days risks looking very stupid. Even so, I will take that risk. The campaign has been simultaneously tense and dull. There have been no dramatic errors: no real excitements. From the outset, the polls have not moved much, generally showing a Tory lead of between ten and fourteen per cent. So is that a clue to the likely outcome? The answer is probably ‘yes’, for a number of reasons. First, why should anyone who voted Tory in 2017 desert the party now? After all,

There are, as I say in the Sun this morning, two possible outcomes to this election: a Tory majority or a hung parliament. The seats where Labour are now concentrating their resources show that they don’t think they can win outright. Instead, their hopes rest on stopping Boris Johnson from getting to 326 seats. Right now, the Tories are on course for a majority. I understand that their own internal numbers indicate a working majority. But these margins are very fine, and victory could slip away if voters don’t turn out. If Boris Johnson does win a majority next week, it will be because he has presented himself as change.

This election campaign feels unreal. Commentators focus on spending plans and personal foibles, but what will make next week’s vote historic is something else, something so momentous that we draw back from discussing it seriously. The Lib Dems boast of Stopping Brexit, knowing that as things are now they will never have to try. Jeremy Corbyn pleads neutrality: the first leader not sure which side he was on since poor Henry VI in the Wars of the Roses. The Conservatives, whose hopes of office depend entirely on this issue, downplay its importance: ‘Get Brexit Done,’ ministers repeat, as if it were a tiresome distraction from real politics. Perhaps it is,