Brexit

Brexit, if used properly, can speed Britain’s post-Corona recovery

Will the recovery be shaped like a V or a U, some other letter or perhaps the Nike swoosh? This is a much-discussed question among economists right now — but it is not the most important question. We’re familiar with the idea of an up-and-down financial crisis where things return to their starting point: we had roller-coasters in the mid-1980s. Even after the global financial crash of 2008-09, financiers still kept their place as masters of the universe. Global supply chains were repaired and the old power structures remained in position. This time might be very different. Old fixes are being applied to a new crisis. Central banks, for example,

The UK will not request an extension to the Brexit transition period

David Frost, the Prime Minister’s chief Brexit negotiator, has held discussions with the First Secretary of State Dominic Raab and other senior ministers in the last few days. As I say in tomorrow’s Spectator, the conclusion of these discussions has been that the UK will not request an extension to the transition period. Interestingly, I understand that no one in these discussions backed asking for an extension. The thinking is that a delay would not solve the fundamental policy problems and that a deal is either possible or not. Another factor, I understand, is that the government worries about the cost of any extension. There is concern that extending could

Our Easter lamb reveals the miracle of free trade

Easter is heavily associated with lamb in Britain. The paschal lamb’s sacrifice is a gift to all but that is not the only link, the last few weeks of lent also mark the beginning of the spring lambing season in agricultural communities. This has fed through in recent decades to the consumer. This Sunday, while the churches stand empty and a great many of us are separated from our family, millions of us nonetheless will sit down to a meal of lamb. If you live in Britain though, this is actually quite an odd phenomenon when you think about it. Lamb is not really in season. New season lamb has

The man who defined Labour’s forgotten past

To read this long-overdue and welcome biography of Peter Shore is to undergo a journey from Labour’s eurosceptic heights in the 1960s to its demise as a party of the nation state in the 1990s. Titled Labour’s Forgotten Patriot, patriotism is a theme which constantly recurs and, to a considerable extent, defined Shore’s political life. Peter Shore has been a rather neglected figure. This is odd since he had considerable influence over Labour politics for two decades and was probably the staunchest defender of Britain’s independence. A Cambridge Apostle, rising star in the Labour Research Department of the 1950s and part author of three consecutive Labour general election manifestos, Shore came

A Brexit delay could last longer than you think

Here’s something Brexiteers might want to keep an eye on. While the country’s attention is welded to the Tesco delivery website, there are moves afoot to delay the Brexit negotiations. Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Centre, has called an extension of the transition period ‘an absolute must’ given the Covid-19 outbreak. He contends: ‘There will simply not be any bandwidth to focus on the negotiations, which require a delicate balance of give and take. In a situation with major healthcare challenges in the short- and long-term and economic challenges already requiring urgent action, there will not be enough political time and attention to successfully conclude this EU-UK

Coronavirus will be a test of trust

We are in a make-or-break moment for trust, not just in this government but in the British state itself. The measures that were announced by Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak this week are extraordinary in economic, social and legal terms. When the Covid-19 crisis is finally over, the state will be judged against how effective they were. None of us will have lived through anything like what we are about to experience. If this country gets it broadly right, then trust in our politicians and the state will rise. But if it gets it wrong, then the nature of the relationship between the citizen and the state will be changed

Michel Barnier tests positive for coronavirus

For those wondering how coronavirus will affect the Brexit negotiations, one immediate issue has arisen today: Michel Barnier has contracted the disease. The EU’s chief negotiator revealed the diagnosis on social media this morning, and said that ‘I am doing well and in good spirits. I am following all the necessary instructions, as is my team.’ So far, the UK and EU have continued with the Brexit negotiations, even as the virus spreads across the continent. But now that the EU’s chief negotiator and team are presumably in quarantine, the chances of a deal being reached by the end of the year are looking increasingly slim.  In the meantime, Mr S wishes

Brexit won’t stop a coronavirus vaccine reaching the UK

The Brexit culture wars are back. On Saturday, the Guardian published an article entitled: ‘Brexit means coronavirus vaccine will be slower to reach the UK.’ As usual with such pieces, the words ‘if’ and ‘could’ do more heavy lifting than Atlas. The gist of the article’s argument is that leaving the European Medicines Agency (EMA) means the UK will no longer be able to benefit from processes that expedite the authorisation of pharmaceuticals for use. This is because manufacturers may decide to meet the approval process for the much larger EU market first before applying to the UK regulator for approval here. That might be true, but only if the

The madness of #ToryGenocide

The hashtag #torygenocide was trending on Twitter all day Sunday. This is because seemingly rational people have got it into their heads that Boris Johnson is using the Covid-19 outbreak to orchestrate a social cull in the UK. There is a debate over the wisdom of the strategy the government has been advised to take by the chief scientific adviser. Robert Peston asks a question about testing that, if I’m honest, makes me wonder about the wisdom of how we’re going about this. Still, I am not a scientist. I don’t know whether Downing Street has taken the right or the wrong approach. I’m happy for others to have that

Revealed: Michel Barnier and France’s Brexit stitch-up

The glaring difference between the EU and British negotiating goals has been brought into plain sight. In readiness for the upcoming Barnier-Frost negotiations, the French senate produced for the French government a set of requirements that Michel Barnier should work to in the negotiations. Those recommendations, which it published on 6 March, are extremely hardline. If Britain were to accept even a few of the key objectives, it could undermine Brexit. Given president Macron’s power in the European Council it is safe to say that most, if not all, of the recommendations will figure prominently in Barnier’s negotiating file. Frost will have to be on his guard to resist them when talks

How British science can flourish after Brexit

I’m a Texan as well as a physicist so I hope it doesn’t sound boosterish if I say that no nation has contributed more to basic science than Britain. No other country has such an uncanny aptitude for it. I’m not sure what combination of poetry and pragmatism makes this possible, but I don’t need to go far to find evidence. A few streets from where I work in Mayfair lies the Royal Institution, which earned more Nobel prizes in science than all of Russia. Or consider Newton, Darwin, Faraday, Maxwell, Rutherford, Hardy, Dirac, Fleming, Crick, Higgs, Hawking and Wiles. All are bywords for British originality. They have something else

Michael Gove misses the mark

Oh dear. Michael Gove, the minister entrusted to head up the British civil service, seems to have developed a problem with multitasking. The key government minister was giving evidence this morning to the Committee on the Future Relationship with the EU when he made an unfortunate mistake.  So engrossed was Gove in the point that he was making that he managed to pour the contents of his water jug all over his phone and papers – just as Hillary Benn was pouring cold water all over his evidence. Let’s hope that Gove is more effective at juggling his various briefs…

Sunak’s leaked tax plan sends precisely the wrong message

It is too expensive. It mostly goes to Southerners who already have plenty of money. And it doesn’t even work very well, while the money would be better spent elsewhere. As the Chancellor puts the finishing touches to his Budget, the leaks suggest that the most generous tax relief for entrepreneurs will either be curbed, reduced or potentially even scrapped completely. But hold on. That’s crazy. It’s just about possible that there might be a worse message to send out about post-Brexit Britain – nationalising the banks, perhaps, or a three-day working week – but it is hard to think of one. In fact, entrepreneur’s relief has been a huge

Marina Lewycka’s The Good, the Bad and the Little Bit Stupid is completely bonkers

Faced with Marina Lewycka’s new novel, it’s tempting to say that The Good, the Bad and the Little Bit Stupid is also a pretty serviceable description of its contents. Yet, in the end, that feels far too neat a formulation for a book that goes well beyond the uneven into the realms of the completely unhinged. For one thing, its elements — among them suburban social comedy, the horrors of Brexit, money laundering, geriatric sex and the international trade in human organs — seem not so much disparate as random. For another, they’re never remotely blended, but simply allowed to co-exist. The novel begins in Sheffield, and in territory familiar

James Forsyth

Le crunch: are the Brexit talks doomed before they begin?

When Boris Johnson and the new European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Downing Street last month, they agreed on one thing immediately: that it was time to stop the sniping, animosity and backbiting that had characterised the first round of the Brexit talks. The Prime Minister emphasised that Britain wanted to be the EU’s close friend and ally. Only a few weeks later, and already the Brexit wars are back. The two sides are so far apart that many diplomats think there is a better-than-even chance that the talks will fail. One member state is already planning around the central assumption that there will be no deal

How big business failed in its plot to stop Brexit

A little over a year ago, at the nadir of the May administration’s excruciating bungling of Brexit, the Daily Telegraph landed a dynamite exclusive. The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, and Business Secretary Greg Clark had hosted a confidential conference call for corporate bosses in which they said the threat of a no-deal Brexit was effectively off the table. And the Telegraph had obtained a tape recording of the whole thing. Behind the backs of the British people, the well-upholstered felines of big business were being told that a huge Commons defeat for May’s withdrawal agreement (it had just lost by 230 votes) did not mean that Brexit would go ahead on

John Keiger

Frost vs Barnier: who will triumph in the Brexit trade talks?

What would Disraeli make of Brexit? His advice to ‘read no history; nothing but biography, for that is life without theory’ is a useful starting point. Brexit has been – and continues to be – a hotch-potch of biographies where human weaknesses, strengths and foibles chafe and collide. The upcoming clash between the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost is no exception. On 2 March, Barnier, who is responsible for leading the ‘Task Force for relations with the United Kingdom’ will face Frost, the British head of ‘Taskforce Europe’, across the negotiating table for the first time. These two titles might sound mundane but they

Are we heading for a no-deal Brexit in January 2021?

There is a recurring and important phrase in the 36-page document published this morning setting out “the UK’s approach to negotiations with the European Union”. It is: “these provisions should not be subject to the Agreement’s dispute resolution mechanism outlined in Chapter 32”. What this represents is an unambiguous and seemingly non-negotiable rejection by Boris Johnson’s Government of a demand from the EU that any free-trade deal with the UK should include what it calls “level playing field” provisions. The EU says that for the UK to have a free trade deal with the EU involving zero tariffs and zero limits on how much can be traded between the UK

Gina Miller should leave the Bank of England’s new boss alone

She’s back. With Brexit ‘done’ and with most of the country just grateful to have moved on from the whole saga, we might have thought we had heard the last of Gina Miller. Miller, who became something of a figurehead in the anti-Brexit movement, could quietly return to doing whatever it was she used to get up to. Not so. Now she is back on the attack, demanding a ‘review’ of the appointment of Andrew Bailey as Governor of the Bank of England. What’s her complaint this time? Apparently as head of the Financial Conduct Authority, Bailey presided over “a toxic cocktail of negligence, incompetence and indifference to the needs

Trade talks between the UK and the EU are heading for a blow-up

‘The reality is the talks will blow up shortly’. As I say in the Sun this morning, this is the verdict of one Downing Street figure on the UK / EU negotiations. The EU might still be finalising its negotiating mandate. But if you read the draft of it and David Frost’s speech this week, it is clear just how far apart the two sides are. This is going to come to a head quickly as the EU line is that there must be agreement on ‘level playing field’ and governance before the talks proper can commence. If the EU side insists on these preconditions in the opening round of