Brexit

Monday

Robert Tombs

Emmanuel Macron’s great Brexit gamble

There is an intriguing pattern in our relationship with European integration. A Frenchman vetoed our attempt to join. A Frenchman threatens to veto our attempt to leave – or at least to leave with an agreement. General de Gaulle said we were too remote from Europe to join. Emmanuel Macron says we are too close to Europe to leave. I think de Gaulle got it right. I hope Macron doesn’t turn out to be right too, so that we end up stuck half in and half out, neither ‘at the heart of Europe’ nor ‘global Britain’. How individuals and nations react to the project of European federalism is determined not

Sunday

Matthew Lynn

More Brexit talks are the worst possible outcome for the economy

Currency speculators at some of the hedge funds in Mayfair may be feeling quietly pleased. Trade experts will be relieved that their lucrative consultancy gigs will keep on coming. Heck, even financial columnists can safely pontificate about the possible outcome for a while yet, while the FBPE mob on Twitter can carry on predicting the apocalypse every time Nissan adjusts its production schedules. There are a few people for whom today’s agreement between Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to carry on discussing a trade deal will come as a relief. For the wider economy, however, it is little short of a disaster. It is hard

Nick Tyrone Nick Tyrone

No deal won’t ‘get Brexit done’

Brexit talks between the two sides are deadlocked. Boris Johnson’s latest bid to ‘divide and conquer’ – pledging to visit Paris and Berlin to try and talk Macron and Merkel round – looks set to fail. The EU, it seems, has stayed united on Brexit, all the way to the end. We shouldn’t be surprised.  Like it or not, this is what the country voted for in 2016. Unless something huge happened subsequently to prevent it, this is always the situation where we were likely to end up. Why? Because the EU was never going to back down on anything they perceived as a genuine threat to the single market. Brussels was also

Saturday

Ross Clark

Enforcing new fisheries policy isn’t ‘gunboat diplomacy’

No, the Channel isn’t going to erupt into naval warfare, and neither is the Prime Minister engaging in ‘gunboat diplomacy’ by deploying Royal Naval vessels to keep French fishing boats out of UK waters in the event of Brexit transitional arrangements ending on 31 December with no trade deal. Yet that seems to be the view of Tobias Ellwood the Conservative chairman of the Defence Select Committee, who protested to the Today programme this morning: ‘This isn’t Elizabethan times anymore, this is global Britain – we need to be raising the bar much higher than this.’ Actually – although it may be news to Mr Ellwood, even in his role

Friday

James Forsyth

How to solve Brexit’s ratchet clause problem

At the moment, the biggest single obstacle in the Brexit talks is the so-called ‘ratchet clause’. This is what Boris Johnson is complaining about with his slightly torturous analogy that the EU wants to treat Britain like a twin with the right to punish the UK if it doesn’t get the same haircut or buy the same handbag. As I say in the Times this morning, the problem with this proposed ratchet clause is that the EU wants the right to unilaterally impose tariffs in the circumstances where it has tightened its regulations and the UK has not followed suit. There would be no obligation to show that the UK’s

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

If Boris doesn’t blink over Brexit, Starmer becomes unelectable

If it’s No Deal, then it will usher in a crisis that will highlight the leader’s negative baggage and remind everyone why he should never be trusted, probably dooming him to ignominious defeat at the next election. If that is your view of the post-transition political landscape then I heartily agree. But, like most of the punditry, I bet you’ve got the wrong leader in mind. Because the man who will actually be holed below the waterline is Keir Starmer, not Boris Johnson. Let me explain by going through what No Deal will mean for each leader. Certainly a No Deal end to the Brexit transition is likely to be

Thursday

James Forsyth

Why Boris Johnson can’t sign the current Brexit deal

The negotiations are still underway in Brussels. But both the UK and the EU are now talking far more openly about no deal. The EU published its contingencies plans earlier and Boris Johnson has just met with the Cabinet and released a clip saying he has told them to ‘get on and make those preparations’ for leaving without a trade deal. Johnson’s argument is that he can’t sign the deal that is currently on the table because of the EU’s demands on the level playing field and fish. He complained that ‘whatever new laws they brought in we would have to follow or else face punishment, sanctions, tariffs or whatever.’

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Two reasons why a Brexit breakthrough might be difficult

The failure to achieve a breakthrough at the Boris Johnson/ Ursula von der Leyen dinner last night has left no deal looking more likely. But those who think there’ll be a deal in the end often point to the fact that things looked even bleaker last autumn, yet a deal was done in the end. There are, though (as I say in the magazine this week) two reasons why now is not like last October. The first is that back then only Ireland was directly affected by the issues under discussion. This meant that if the Irish were happy, the rest of the EU would be too. Now, most of the EU’s

Jonathan Saxty

Germany holds the key to a Brexit deal

Boris Johnson failed to break the Brexit negotiations deadlock over dinner with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen last night. But while the continuation of talks suggest that neither side favours no deal, something needs to give if a deal is to be reached. It’s here that Germany holds the key. France appears to be the major obstacle to a deal, particularly over fisheries, but also over the level-playing field. France and the UK have similar-sized and structured economies; both are major military powers and maritime nations. Paris is more likely than Frankfurt to threaten London’s crown.  But Germany – the ever-pragmatic manufacturing titan of the EU – will be

Steven Barrett

Does the EU understand what sovereignty really means?

The UK never tried to have our constitution written in one big session. We made it up by responding to each crisis when it happened. Brexit is just the latest. The remaining sticking points on a deal are fish and something called the level playing field. Fish is very interesting, I assume, but it is politics, not law. So, as a lawyer who chooses not to speak on politics (some do), fish is none of my business. But the Level Playing Field (LPF) – which is a legal problem – is. It is the elephant in the room. And yet the EU’s response to this issue is deeply unhelpful. Rightly

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Vaccine shots, Brexit stutters and a frosty reception for the royals

Home The Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine began, rather slowly, to be given to some old people in hospital and health workers. Margaret Keenan, 90, was the first outside clinical trials to receive it. At the beginning of the week, Sunday 6 December, total deaths (within 28 days of testing positive for the coronavirus) had stood at 61,014, including 2,771 in the past week; the number for the week before was 3,617. Rita Ora, the singer, a week after apologising for entertaining 30 people at a birthday party on the ‘spur of the moment’, remembered to apologise for not having gone into quarantine at the time, after returning from Egypt. England’s cricket

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The deal-or-no-deal debate is different this time

When a deadline is missed for Brexit negotiations, it is tempting to think there will be another chance to keep talks going. Last week, the UK and the EU agreed that things needed to be wrapped up by Sunday night or Monday afternoon at the latest. The thinking was that if a deal was not done by then, the return of the Internal Market Bill to the Commons would scupper negotiations. But Monday afternoon passed with no agreement. The two sides now admit that the only real deadline is the end of the transition period on 31 December. The talks are currently in a state of suspended animation. After nine

Wednesday

Lloyd Evans

PMQs: Starmer lacked a forensic touch

It really is crunch time. The international game of Texas Hold’em is reaching its climax. The lesser players have folded. Only two high-rollers remain at the table. Beads of sweat are appearing on their brows. Each is feeling for a lucky charm discreetly held in a side-pocket, and each is scouring the other’s eyes for signs of fear or uncertainty. The turn of a card will determine the outcome. This is the position as Boris prepares for tonight’s summit feast with Ursula von der Leyen. At PMQs, he was confronted by Sir Keir Starmer who appeared via video-link from his Camden home. Labour’s spin-team missed a golden opportunity here. They

Robert Tombs

We should not accept Brexit in name only

Given the seemingly highly technical nature of the current negotiations, members of the public who have normal lives to lead might be forgiven for thinking that the same issues are still being debated after more than four years. They might be forgiven for thinking this as much of the media, including the BBC, are happy simply to parrot the official line coming from Brussels: that this is just about compromise, both sides making necessary adjustments, and the EU simply acting in a normal and rational way. Rational it may be. Normal it is not. The EU is being rational in ruthlessly pursuing its own interests. But it is entirely abnormal

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Starmer’s willingness to vote for a Brexit deal is wise

Keir Starmer normally avoids the subject of Brexit. But with Boris Johnson flying to Brussels tonight for dinner with Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, he could not avoid it at PMQs. But Boris Johnson, who was in the chamber in contrast to Starmer who is self-isolating, attempted to turn the tables. Johnson asked whether Starmer would vote for a deal. This was a bit premature given that there is no certainty that there will be a deal. But Starmer’s answer was interesting. He said Labour’s vote would be based on the national interest, not the party interest. Given that the choice in that vote would be between an agreement

Tuesday

Katy Balls

Can Johnson’s dinner date break the Brexit deadlock?

The mood music on Brexit talks may be rather gloomy but there are signs suggesting progress is still being made. As well as an agreement in principle on all the outstanding issues in the Northern Ireland protocol, a date has been set for Boris Johnson’s meeting with Ursula von der Leyen. The Prime Minister will travel to Brussels on Wednesday for dinner with the European Commission president. Is this a crunch meeting? The strong suggestion from the UK side is no. Instead, it’s being billed as a ‘continuing process’ of talks, and the idea of it leading to a firm decision on the shape of a deal – or a decision to

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Could Brexit talks drag on past Christmas?

Brexit deadline after deadline has slid to the right. There is, however, one deadline that is set in law: that the transition period finishes at the end of this year. Comments from the UK government and the European Commission today suggest that this now is, really, the only deadline. The European Commission has said that ‘hopefully’ the talks will continue after the Boris Johnson-Ursula von der Leyen meeting in Brussels this week. This is to be expected given that the gaps are too big to be bridged in one meeting. The Commission’s spokesman also suggested that the talks could carry on even in the event of a no deal on

Nick Tyrone Nick Tyrone

Blame Theresa May, not Remainers, for our Brexit crisis

Are Remainers to blame for the looming hard Brexit? The theory goes that had Remainers compromised and accepted soft Brexit, none of what is about to unfold would ever happen. It’s true that the behaviour of some Remain campaigners in the aftermath of the referendum has hardly been exemplary. The whole Russian conspiracy thing was deeply alienating to anyone who might have listened to their case otherwise. These campaigners helped turned Brexit into a skirmish in the culture was, unconsciously saying that Brexiteers weren’t just wrong but a malign force in British politics. Some remain campaigners also sucked up to Corbyn in a fruitless and embarrassing manner. Yet hard Brexit isn’t their

Robert Peston Robert Peston

Deal or no-deal? The choice is Boris Johnson’s

If you voted for Brexit, did you think it was a state of pure and perfect national independence, or did you think that given how connected the UK is to the EU – economically, diplomatically, in respect of security – it might be a bit of a fudge and compromise? Is Brexit an absolute state of putative grace – or a place on a spectrum, somewhere between Switzerland and Norway, which are semi-independent, and North Korea, which is wholly independent? Because your answer will help you determine whether or not you think Boris Johnson is being reasonable in rejecting the EU stipulation that the UK should not weaken its environmental,

Monday

James Forsyth

Can Boris’s dash to Brussels secure a Brexit deal?

The upshot of Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen’s conversation this evening is that the pair will meet in Brussels in the ‘coming days’ to see if they can resolve the remaining ‘significant differences’ on the level playing field, governance and fish. Presumably this meeting will take place before the European Council on Thursday. Johnson and von der Leyen are being left with a lot to resolve in their summit. This isn’t going to be simply about finding a compromise on fish but on sorting the three issues that have bedevilled the negotiations from the start. Optimists will point to how negotiations on the withdrawal agreement last year seemed