Barack obama

The Israel Palestine question

After a hiatus, the Middle East Peace Process is about to return to the international stage. The Palestinians are pushing at the UN for recognition. Nobody knows yet what they will actually ask for: full statehood or just upgrading their UN status to “non-member”. But, whatever the language of the resolution, the issue will be contentious. By some estimates, 126 states are poised to back the Palestinian request, including France, India, Brazil, Spain. The US will not support a Palestinian move, nor is Germany likely to. Britain remains undecided, hoping to help the Palestinians draft a resolution that other Europeans can sign up to. It’s not clear what Britain and

Authenticity or bust?

Mitt Romney won the Atlanticist vote last night by saying he’d bring back a bust of Winston Churchill to the Oval Office. That’s a reference, obviously, to Barack Obama’s decision, soon after moving into the White House, to have the bronze removed. That decision caused a lot of bother. When the story broke, the Obama machine insisted that the bust’s removal was part of a routine changeover between presidents. But British hacks shouted ‘Anglophobia’ and pronounced the Special Relationship dead. The British embassy in Washington received masses of letters from Americans apologising for this great slight against Britannia. Never in the field of human history has so much been made

In New York, the whole world remembers

New York There’s an eerie mood in New York right now, as the city prepares to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Al-Qaeda, or what’s left of it, likes anniversaries. The police have been on overdrive ever since a “credible” tip-off about an attempted truck bomb. Officers are everywhere. Armed guards patrol landmarks and cars from bridges and tunnels are being pulled over and checked. All this reinforces the sense of something alien to New Yorkers (and almost all Americans) until ten years ago: the threat of attack. A common threat has solicited a rather wonderful common response. Shop windows have displays of commemoration; companies take adverts

Obama’s plan B: tax cuts

Washington, DC The clue is in the name. A stimulus is supposed to stimulate, and Obama’s first attempt stimulated nothing more than the American national debt. So he’s trying again, with a $447 billion package (he’s careful not to call it a “stimulus”) in what will probably be his last roll of the pre-election dice. But $245 billion of it would be debt-financed tax cuts.  Not sales tax cuts, the type of which Ed Balls is prescribing for Britain. It’s all payroll tax cuts: reducing the tax on jobs in the hope of encouraging more hiring. Given the temporary nature of the tax cuts, I doubt this will be the

Rubio for VP?

Just under a year from now, Republicans will meet in Tampa, Florida for their National Convention, at which their candidate to take on President Obama will be nominated. So too will that candidate’s running mate: the man or woman hoping to oust Joe Biden and become the 48th Vice President of the United States. The choice of VP candidate will be one of the biggest decisions facing whichever of the Presidential hopefuls emerges victorious in the primaries. Right now, the clear favourite to be selected is Marco Rubio. The betting markets give him around a one-in-three chance of being chosen, making him at least four times as likely as anyone

Obama’s field of dreams?

The striking thing about last night’s Republican Party debate was just how bad the leading GOP candidates are. Rick Perry, the new favourite, isn’t terribly bright. (“Perry is like Will Ferrell doing Bush, but on half-speed,” is how David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter, put it.) Mitt Romney is an oily cheese merchant who keeps contradicting himself. And Bachmann is bonkers. With the USA in such a poor state, you might think President Obama would be in danger of losing the White House. But the Republican party is incapable of offering a coherent and sensible alternative. The most interesting candidates are Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul, but they don’t seem

Newsflash: Americans and Europeans like each other

A decade has passed since the attacks of 9/11 and so much water has flown under the proverbial bridge. Today, ordinary Americans don’t want to have a leadership role in the world, and Europeans aren’t too keen on it either. And having dithered over what to do about Guantanamo Bay, most people in the US and Europe don’t trust President Obama’s counter-terrorist policies. Right? No, actually wrong. According to the tenth-annual public opinion survey of the general public in the United States, Turkey, and 12 European Union member states – the Transatlantic Trends – 54 per cent of respondents from European countries surveyed want the United States to show strong leadership in world

With Obama looking beatable, the Republican candidates debate

Tonight, the Republican primary race gets serious with a debate at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in California. This is the first debate that Rick Perry, the governor of Texas and the current frontrunner, has taken part in. The Republican nomination is now a far more attractive prize than many expected it to be. 53 percent of voters now disapprove of the job Obama is doing suggesting that he is beatable. At the moment, the Republican nomination appears to be Perry’s to lose. He is benefitting from both the troubles of the Tea Party favourite Michele Bachmann, her campaign manager has just stepped down, and Republican establishment unease with the

Gripped by ‘Dominion’

What on earth is ‘Dominionism’? Lots of Americans who first heard the word just a few weeks ago are suddenly feeling very angry about it. Liberals say that the US constitution is facing a ‘Dominionist threat’ in the form of Michele Bachman and Rick Perry, two Republicans running for president in 2012. Christian conservatives, meanwhile, cry prejudice: they accuse a secularist elite of conducting a witch-hunt against Christians in politics.   What’s the fuss? Dominionism is, we are told, a school of evangelical thought that aims to impose Biblical law over secular government. It is to nutty Evangelicals what Shariah Law is to Islamists,­ a way of achieving theocracy on earth.

Rick Perry soars in the polls, but for how long?

His presidential campaign is just a fortnight old, and already Rick Perry is soaring in the polls. The three major national surveys conducted since his announcement all give Perry double-digit leads over previous frontrunner Mitt Romney. He has also, importantly, taken the lead in Iowa and is now odds on to win both there and in South Carolina come February. This is certainly an encouraging position for a new candidate, but history suggests that Perry supporters should temper their optimism with a heavy dose of caution. Until the autumn of 2007, Rudy Giuliani led the Republican field by a similar margin to the one Perry has now. And Hillary Clinton’s

The Republican battle steps up a gear

This is perhaps the biggest weekend yet in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. The candidates clashed on Thursday night in their third televised debate, and will contest the traditionally important Ames Straw Poll in Iowa today. In truth, as Alex says, neither the debate nor the straw poll will have that big an impact on the race. More significant is an event taking place more than a thousand miles from Ames, in Charleston, South Carolina. There, Texas Governor Rick Perry will announce his entry to the race. And judging by current polling and betting trends, he will start out as joint favourite. Until now, Mitt Romney has

Why Obama is still odds on for re-election — just

A credit downgrade, unemployment at 9.1 per cent, spluttering growth — the economic cards are certainly stacked against Obama for his re-election in 2012. But here’s the thing: American punters still think that he’s more likely to win next November than not. Perhaps that’s because, contrary to Clinton’s famous slogan, it’s not actually all about the economy. According to Nate Silver’s analysis of the last 25 presidential elections, a better rule of thumb is “it’s half the economy and half everything else, stupid”. So if Obama’s losing the first half, what about the “everything else”? The proportion of Americans telling Gallup they approve of Obama’s performance hit a new low

Fraser Nelson

America continues to unravel

The humbling of America — the cover theme of this week’s Spectator — continues with S&P stripping Uncle Sam of his AAA credit rating. The debt downgrade, it says, “reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.” In other words: Obama’s still addicted to debt, and it’s time to stop pretending that his government’s IOU notes rank among the safest investments on earth. Its analysis seems to be pretty much that made by Christopher Caldwell in his brilliant cover story. This move will, as today’s

The markets wax and wane

CoffeeHouser ‘Ben G’ had it right in his comment underneath my earlier post: 24 hour news really does struggle in the face of economic crisis. This morning, all the talk was of a debt-induced apocalypse. Earlier this afternoon, the headlines were about the markets “rallying” after better-than-expected data on the US labour market. And now the BBC website’s main headline is that “turmoil in the stock market persists,” despite those very same labour market figures. Oh yes, it’s difficult to present a consistent front as the money merchants sway and buckle in the breeze. That said, the economic fundamentals remain discouraging. It shouldn’t be forgotten that yesterday’s losses were extraordinary;

An open letter to Will Straw about deficit reduction…

…or why the US cuts are actually faster than, and just as deep as, ours. Dear Will, We hope you don’t mind us writing a letter-form response to your latest post on Left Foot Forward, which argues that the “coalition government’s cuts are deeper and faster than the Tea Party’s”. But, as we see it, there are several problems with your figures which are easier to explain in a conversational format. Here they are, as best as we can express them: i) The first obvious problem comes when you say that Obama set out $83 billion of deficit reduction for 2012 in his March Budget. Actually, he didn’t. The Congressional

Apocalypse averted?

At last, signs that Washington’s lawmakers may have scrabbled together a debt deal after all. According to the overnight wires, the White House and Congressional leaders have alighted on a package that would raise the ceiling by $2.4 trillion, so long as the deficit is reduced by at least the same amount over the next ten years. There are more details here, but the key claim is that around $1.2 trillion of immediate spending cuts have already been agreed upon, with a Congressional committee to recommend further deficit reduction measures by the end of November. And although these proposals will still have to pass through the corridors of Congress, leaders

America’s debt crisis fuels Obama’s political crisis

Momentousness without momentum. That’s what we’re getting from America at the moment, as this all-crucial debt deal continues to stutter and stall. The main development in Washington yesterday was John Boehner securing enough Republican votes to pass his bill in the House of Representatives — only for it to be summarily tabled by Democrats in the Senate. What will follow over the weekend is yet more frantic negotiation between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as each tries to make their various plans more acceptable to the other, while also keeping their own die-hards on side. Meanwhile, the clock keeps on ticking down towards default: three days, 13 hours, 35

New favourite emerges to challenge Obama

There’s a new favourite in the race for the Republican nomination to take on Barack Obama in 2012. Yesterday saw Mitt Romney hobbled from his number one spot – on betting website Intrade at least – by Texan Governor Rick Perry. Romney had been seen as the candidate most likely to secure his party’s nomination next year ever since he finished second to John McCain in the 2008 primaries. However, support for Romney has never reached the levels expected of frontrunners, with many Republicans keen to vote for someone more conservative. Rick Perry may just be that man. Perry’s position as (narrow) favourite is somewhat surprising when you consider that

Where next for the US and Pakistan?

The US-Pakistani relationship is fast deteriorating. In May, I argued that unless President Asif Ali Zardari took decisive action against the ISI, the country’s military would continue to undermine relations with the West. Last week, the New York Times reached the same conclusion, calling for the removal of Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha. As President Zardari did nothing — probably fearing a military coup if he did act — the situation has merely been aggravated. What’s more, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that the US could suspend military aid to Pakistan unless it took unspecified steps to help find and fight terrorists. And the White House has since confirmed

Boehner’s concession exposes the GOP’s divisions

The New York Times reports that House Speaker John Boehner has urged his colleagues to reach a deal with President Obama over raising the ceiling on the national debt. So far, Republicans have been resisting Obama, fearful that tax rises and compromise would damage the party’s chances in next year’s election, which is expected to hinge on restoring America’s public finances. Boehner’s retreat has incited the presidential candidates, who have been campaigning this weekend. The New York Times has the full details, but here’s a brief summary. Michelle Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty averred their opposition to raising the debt ceiling; a stance designed to court the party’s purists. Predictably, Mitt Romney