Bank of england

Bank of England: inflation blip is ‘entirely’ temporary

Although Mark Carney has earned a reputation for doom-mongering over Brexit, today’s Bank of England press conference wasn’t all doom and gloom. While the bank voted – at six votes to two – to keep interest rates at 0.25pc (see the leader in this week’s issue of The Spectator for why this isn’t such a great idea), its Inflation Report did bear better-than-expected news. On inflation, Carney said it was expected to peak at 3pc in October from its current rate of 2.6pc. However, this rise is ‘entirely’ temporary, and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (which aims to keep inflation at 2pc) expects real wage growth to return soon as earnings growth

Jane Austen finds a surprising fan in the Bank of England’s Mark Carney

Winchester Cathedral, where Jane Austen was laid to rest 200 years ago this week, was the venue chosen for the unveiling of the new £10 bank note, which will feature a portrait of the English novelist. On a humid July day, tourists, pensioners, banknote geeks and a few noisy children packed the aisles. The atmosphere was expectant, as worshippers gathered to get a glimpse of ‘Reverend’ Carney at the pulpit. Smartphones were whipped out as soon as he started speaking. I travelled with my family as an off-duty journalist and was expecting the rather dry and technical explanations favoured by the Bank of England governor in the inflation report. But

Would Jane Austen be amused or bemused by her £10 note quotation?

So, the new tenner has been unveiled today. Two centuries after her death, Jane Austen replaces Charles Darwin, who has enjoyed a 25-year sojourn with his hummingbirds. And yet it feels like this new note has been in the air for a while, though obscured by the hazy fug of controversy. First there was the (largely vegan) stew about animal tallow remaining part of the production process. All protests about what we’re doing with the natural world are worth hearing, so long as they are proportional. Quite what percentage of society occupies the intersection of the Venn diagram where strict boycotters of plastic bags, soap and cosmetics overlap with those

Let’s make sure our fishermen are protected against Brexit tit-for-tat

I voted Remain last year for two reasons. First, however irritating I found some aspects of the EU, I could not vote for the chaos I believed would follow a Leave victory. From the accession of Theresa May to the night of the general election, that looked like an excess of pessimism; now it looks like wise foresight. The second prong was an analysis of my own and my neighbours’ economic circumstances: in what sense was EU membership actually making us worse off? In my own case, not at all; local shops, hospitality outlets and tourist attractions, likewise. Subsidised hill farmers and fatter farming cats on the flatlands? Not really,

The Bank of England is enslaved by groupthink

I do find it odd that I’m so often having to write about the science of global warming, species extinction and ocean acidification because, though I’ve certainly acquired a pretty useful base knowledge over the years — superior, I’m guessing, to 97 per cent of scientists — it’s really not my main interest. What fascinates me far more is the way the faddish preoccupations of a few green cultists have somehow come to dominate our entire culture, corrupting the intellectual current, suborning institutions, crushing dissent — much as Marxist, fascist and Nazi ideologies did in the 20th century, only with rather more widespread success. Let me give you a recent

Let’s stop blaming Brexit for higher inflation

No time has been lost in blaming Brexit for today’s rise in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to 2.9 per cent. It wasn’t just those on the left, either. The head of Theresa May’s policy unit, George Freeman, tweeted this morning: ‘This is reality of the devaluation of the £ post Brexit’. While George Freeman has always been a staunch Remainer, the fact he put this out is possibly indicative of a change in attitude at Number 10 – an attempt to reach out to those in the party who continue to believe that Brexit is a mistake. Yet the longer the rise in CPI goes on the less it looks

Mark Carney falls victim to a hoax

For weeks now, an email hoaxer has been trying to catch bank officials out online. After the prankster tricked Barclays boss Jes Staley, they set their sights on a new target: the governor of the Bank of England. Claiming to be Anthony Habgood, chairman of the court of the Bank of England, the hoaxer emailed Mark Carney about reports that Jane Austen would appear on the new £10 banknote, before getting into a conversation about drinking. While Carney did suggest that he was partial to Eddie George’s drinking advice (to have three martinis …before lunch), he can hold his head up high that he shut down the conversation once it took on a somewhat sexist

Is the Bank of England a Libor-manipulating villain?

The BBC made much this week of a recording, from 2008, of one Barclays manager instructing another to submit artificially low rates into the daily interbank Libor fixing because ‘we’ve had some very serious pressure from the UK government and the Bank of England about pushing our Libors lower’. How shocking is that? Well, perhaps not as shocking as it looks — even if it appears to contradict select committee evidence given by the Bank’s former deputy governor, Sir Paul Tucker. The latter part of 2008 saw a liquidity panic in the City, in which the interbank lending market all but froze. Spikes in Libor would have given the impression

On balance, I’d vote for a rate rise and a stronger pound

Since Article 50 was triggered last week, City traders have been avidly watching the fluctuations of the pound. Analysts at Barclays, Nomura and Citigroup think sterling is undervalued against the euro and the dollar, and due for a rebound, having dived in the market tizzy that followed last June’s referendum and kept its head down through the phoney war of the past nine months. As ambiguity over Brexit terms begins to recede, says the City, it’s time for the pound to perk up. Well, maybe — as I’m often moved to observe in relation to bald economic statements. Let’s take a closer look. The sudden fall last summer boosted UK

Are we heading for another credit-fuelled debt crisis? New figures show household debt at record high

The Bank of England is concerned that banks and building societies may have made it too easy to borrow money – and with good reason. Figures released by the Bank today show that household debt is at record levels, with credit card debt increasing at its fastest rate in more than a decade. It’s not difficult to see how this happened. Lenders deluge households with offers of new credit cards, and regularly raise the borrowing levels on existing plastic. There’s a plethora of deals on cards to entice people to switch their debt to new providers and the minimum monthly repayments are often so minuscule that many customers only ever

Too many Hoggs spoil it for Charlotte

Charlotte Hogg forgot to tell the Bank of England, of which she had been appointed deputy governor, that her brother Quintin is director of strategy at Barclays bank. She has had to resign. There is something strange about this story. After all, if the Bank of England did not know already that her brother held this position, its knowledge of the banking world it is supposed to supervise must be thin indeed. You can see why Miss Hogg might have assumed that those appointing her knew already, and so have given it no thought, rather as Tony Blair and David Cameron probably never thought to put in the Register of

Spot the endangered species: white men grab the chairs while Hogg loses her job

Tesco chairman John Allan provoked feminist fury by telling would-be non-exec directors, ‘If you’re a white male, tough: you’re an endangered species’ — then claimed he was really trying to make the opposite point, that ‘it’s a great time for women’. But to the contrary, this was a week in which tough white males grabbed the corporate prizes, while one high-flying woman from an oppressed minority was hounded out of her job. First, the blokes. HSBC announced, for the first time in its history and to the satisfaction of governance zealots, the appointment of an outside chairman. Incumbent Douglas Flint is to be succeeded by Mark Tucker, a former professional

Charlotte Hogg didn’t know what her brother did at Barclays. Why would she?

It’s too late now, but I didn’t feel Charlotte Hogg made enough of her defence that until recently she didn’t even know what her brother did at Barclays. His own colleagues probably didn’t know either: operating somewhere below the board and executive committee where strategic decisions are really made, a ‘director of corporate strategy’ in an institution perpetually riven by power struggles is at best the equivalent of a powerless squire in Game of Thrones. I speak from experience: for a few months long ago, I held the title of ‘head of international corporate finance’ in Barclays’ investment bank, but as far as I could ascertain it carried no authority

Socrates on expertise

The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, raises his growth forecasts and suddenly everyone believes the ‘expert’. So is it wrong to say that people ‘have had enough of experts’? Yes, totally wrong. Expertise exists: the question is, with what scope? Socrates dissected the problem. In debates in Athens’ democratic Assembly, he pointed out, topics such as building or ship construction were taken to be the business of builders and shipwrights, and anyone who, though no expert, attempted to give advice in those areas was jeered off the platform. But when the debate moved on to deliberation about a course of action, then ‘any builder, smith, cobbler, merchant or

The Bank of England is (slowly) overcoming its Brexophobia

It has been clear for some time that the pre-referendum warnings made by Bank of England governor Mark Carney were wide of the mark. Last May, he said that a vote for Brexit would pose an ‘immediate and significant threat’ to the UK economy, increasing unemployment, hitting growth, possibly to the point of recession. Today, however, the bank effectively admits that it was still being far too gloomy about the economy even last November. It upgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2017 from 1.4 per cent (as announced in the Autumn statement) to two per cent – saying that consumer spending has been stronger than expected and that the

Mark Carney strikes a different tone on Brexit

Mark Carney made himself some enemies during the referendum. It wasn’t only his gloomy prophecies that caused trouble. His willingness to speak out in the first place was enough to anger those who thought he should keep shtum on a politically-loaded topic like Brexit. Today, though, we saw a different Carney. Gone was the gloominess, and in place of his warning that the referendum was ‘the most significant’ risk to Britain’s financial stability, came the verdict that Britain was largely out of that particular storm. He told the Treasury select committee that: ‘Having got through the night, if you will, and the day after, the scale of the immediate risks

Economists called Brexit wrong, but so did the Bank of England

As confessions go, it was hardly the most revelatory. Cheryl Fernandez-Versini admits she has problems with relationships. Sir Philip Green accepts he made a bit of a hash of BHS. Ed Miliband owns up to struggling with bacon sandwiches. They would have all come as more of a surprise than the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, finally admitting that when it came to forecasting the impact of Brexit they were a couple of alphas short of a full algorithm. Well, thanks Andy. Who knew? The problem is that Haldane, and more importantly the Bank, is still deflecting the blame. Haldane argues there is a general problem

The Bank of England needs to pay more mind to the hard-pressed

When the Bank of England is not indulging employees with the kind of taxpayer-funded hospitality that would make a bailed-out banker blush, its lofty and unelected officials might like to consider how they could help us ordinary mortals in the new year.  It has emerged that the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street spent nearly £100,000 of our money on its annual summer party, just weeks after the Brexit vote tossed the country into economic and political turmoil.  Following a Freedom of Information request, the central bank admitted that it lavished more than £94,500 (excluding VAT) on food, entertainment and the venue for the Governors’ Day event, with nearly another £4,500

Don’t panic, Jacob Rees-Mogg will never replace Mark Carney

For Mark Carney to have returned to-Canada after five years as Governor, as he originally planned, rather than serving until 2021, might by now have looked like a win for his critics — so adding an extra year, up to the end of Brexit talks in 2019, is a sidestep worthy of Strictly. Meanwhile, I was delighted to find ‘Might it be worth a flutter on Governor Rees-Mogg?’, the punchline of my last item on this subject (22 October), bouncing around the global media. Bloomberg reported ‘serious political magazines’ speculating that backbench Tory MP and Carney critic Jacob Rees-Mogg might be the Canadian’s replacement; the Daily Mail cited-Bloomberg likewise; and

The Bank of England made a mistake. It should have admitted it

The currency has been devalued by more than 30 per cent. Interest rates have been pushed all the way up to 20 per cent. The IMF is standing by with an emergency package, and capital controls and dollar rationing have been maintained. It has been a heck of a morning for the pound – although, fortunately enough for most us, the Egyptian rather than British one. Over here, it has all been rather quieter. The Bank of England, as most people expected, has stuck with its decision over the summer to take rates all the way down to the 0.25 per cent. It now looks inevitable that it will hold